Author Topic: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.  (Read 10896 times)

Kai

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #60 on: January 26, 2009, 01:19:15 am »
how long does it take to cycle through a perigee/apogee "year"?

Edit: I did get it wrong. Its Parahelion and aphelion for solar apsis, and perigee/apogee for lunar apsis. I also answered my question: 21,000 years.

Year    Perihelion    Aphelion
2007    January 3 20Z    July 7 00Z
2008    January 3 00Z    July 4 08Z
2009    January 4 15Z    July 4 02Z
2010    January 3 00Z    July 6 11Z
2011    January 3 19Z    July 4 15Z
2012    January 5 00Z    July 5 03Z
2013    January 2 05Z    July 5 15Z
2014    January 4 12Z    July 4 00Z
2015    January 4 07Z    July 6 19Z
2016    January 2 23Z    July 4 16Z
2017    January 4 14Z    July 3 20Z
2018    January 3 06Z    July 6 17Z
2019    January 3 05Z    July 4 22Z
2020    January 5 08Z    July 4 12Z

It doesn't look like apsis is playing a role in the climate change, unless the distance from the sun at aphelion and parahelion changes cyclically or from year to year.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2009, 01:24:09 am by Kai »
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Kai

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2009, 01:27:45 am »
If there is magic on this planet, it is contained in water. --Loren Eisley, The Immense Journey

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #62 on: January 26, 2009, 02:07:57 am »
See Milankovitch Cycles.


Wheeeeee!

I have been trying to remember the name of those *forever*.
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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #63 on: January 26, 2009, 02:09:30 am »
how long does it take to cycle through a perigee/apogee "year"?

Edit: I did get it wrong. Its Parahelion and aphelion for solar apsis, and perigee/apogee for lunar apsis. I also answered my question: 21,000 years.

Year    Perihelion    Aphelion
2007    January 3 20Z    July 7 00Z
2008    January 3 00Z    July 4 08Z
2009    January 4 15Z    July 4 02Z
2010    January 3 00Z    July 6 11Z
2011    January 3 19Z    July 4 15Z
2012    January 5 00Z    July 5 03Z
2013    January 2 05Z    July 5 15Z
2014    January 4 12Z    July 4 00Z
2015    January 4 07Z    July 6 19Z
2016    January 2 23Z    July 4 16Z
2017    January 4 14Z    July 3 20Z
2018    January 3 06Z    July 6 17Z
2019    January 3 05Z    July 4 22Z
2020    January 5 08Z    July 4 12Z

It doesn't look like apsis is playing a role in the climate change, unless the distance from the sun at aphelion and parahelion changes cyclically or from year to year.

Apogee and perigee are generic terms for the distance of any orbiting satellite. You weren't wrong, 'helion' is just sun-centric.

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #64 on: January 26, 2009, 11:45:51 pm »
That's okay.  It is my firm belief that intelligence is a fatal mutation.

You can't have intelligence without stupidity.
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Bebek Sincap Ratatosk

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2009, 03:44:33 pm »
So it seems to me that this entire Climate Change debate is a great mix of useful information, useless theorizing, overstated claims, understated claims and mostly people falling on the side of their favorite team. I mean, how many decades have we measured the sea ice on the caps? What did they look like during the Warm period of the early Middle Ages? What did it look like at the height of the mini Ice Age? We have theories, which might be close, or they might be way off, but depending on which side people are on its 100% true or 100% false.

Feh.

It seems to me that we are not 'saving our planet'. Our planet is safe. Our planet was here for millions of years before any of our grandparents showed up, even the asexual ones. Our planet will be here until it explodes like Krypton, falls into the Sun, gets blown up to make way for a hyperspace bypass, or melts during the supernova that will someday turn Sol into Solong. However, its not nearly as respectable to say "Save our Habitathttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkHM8xG6i8o&NR=1http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkHM8xG6i8o&NR=1". That's embarrassing. Save our habitat? Yes, we a species that groks the model of causality, seem in need of saving... we pump the soil and the water and the air full of crap and wonder why we feel ill.

TGRR had the right of it, even if this is nothing but hype, cleaning the toxins out of our habitat seems like a good idea.

I think we should continue to investigate climate change, it seems useful to figure out what may soon happen. I think its smart to make sure we're impacting those changes as little as possible. However, it seems to me, that at least some people ought to be planning for a flock of black swans to cland in the lake that used to be Central Park... that is, some people should be planning for "What if the coasts change?"

If a bad scenario happens... if within the next 100 years, the oceans rise enough to flood the US coasts... Where the fuck are we gonna put all of those people? What if the conveyor theory is right? Where do we put all those sods living out West that are gonna have firestorms and no rain?

By 2050, the world will have an estimated 9,000,000,000* people... and if global climate change is correct we may have much less habitable land. Having a team trying to stop the mess is a good idea, but it seems to me that we ought to have some contingencies being put together as well. For example, maybe we should think about moving New Orleans... to Missouri.

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« Last Edit: January 28, 2009, 02:57:52 pm by Ratatosk »
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Kai

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #66 on: January 28, 2009, 12:03:44 pm »
Actually, they can track the ice ages pretty reliably with many methods. Core samples of sediments for pollen types, for example. Warmer and colder climate yields different pollen types.

We can track the past relatively well. What we can't do well is track the short term future. We know EVENTUALLY there will be another high ice age event.  We don't know when. We don't know how great an affect on this our CO2 emmissions have had. (add another three zeros to that population estimate, Rat.)

The biggest variable that we have no clue about is, believe it or not, clouds.
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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #67 on: January 28, 2009, 12:19:04 pm »
add another three zeros to that population estimate, Rat.

yeah, I really hope i'll still be around by then.

- the other three zeros ;-)
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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #68 on: January 28, 2009, 03:16:51 pm »
Actually, they can track the ice ages pretty reliably with many methods. Core samples of sediments for pollen types, for example. Warmer and colder climate yields different pollen types.

We can track the past relatively well. What we can't do well is track the short term future. We know EVENTUALLY there will be another high ice age event.  We don't know when. We don't know how great an affect on this our CO2 emmissions have had. (add another three zeros to that population estimate, Rat.)

The biggest variable that we have no clue about is, believe it or not, clouds.

lol whoops.. yes should be billion.

Also, I know that we can measure quite a lot... be we're still extrapolating a lot of information out of that data. These guys are still getting surprises, because of unknowns (holishi look how much faster that glacier moves, once melting ice lubricates it!) Do we know if the ice over the water melts in some normal cycle due to some other unknown quirk which we haven't yet observed?

My point is that we don't know if their estimates are correct or way off because of other unknowns (way off worse or way off better). However, not poisoning our habitat on a regular basis and planning for rising oceans and changes to the coasts seems like a good idea. The worst that happens then, is we have some disaster plans that never get used and a cleaner, healthier place to live.
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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #69 on: January 28, 2009, 04:41:55 pm »
Here's why I hate environmentalists: They think that we (as the nearest thing to god on this mudball) have some obligation to keep things exactly the same, even though the 'natural' way of doing things is constant change. Continents drift, habitats evolve or die, species become extinct.

The environment is crap! There - I've one and said it. It's as bad as 'evolution'. Yup - another sacred cow, you line 'em up I'll knock 'em down. Evolution takes eight billion years (approx) to fix a minor design flaw, that's how useless it is. It's only impressive when one appreciates the scale of it but, make no mistake, the scale is the only impressive bit. When we came along it took a couple of hundred years to develop the 'wolf' model into designer pets and working animals of your choice. Couple of hundred year and we have high-yield boar modifications that produce ten times the meat in half the time.

We took evolution and we fucking fixed it! And it's high time we did the same to the environment. Lets face it the environment is the same bullshit, hit and miss cop-out that mother nature is famous for. It's too cold and rainy in scotland, the australian and african deserts are largely uninhabitable. The north pole is only any use as part of the whole fucking fiasco.  And the minute our genetically modified foodsource farts the whole thing falls apart? Fuck that shit. we need to replace the whole thing with something that suits our purposes.

The environment does not need conserved it needs wiped out and rebuilt. Properly this time.
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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #70 on: January 28, 2009, 06:05:10 pm »
P3nT,

I love you.

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #71 on: January 28, 2009, 06:15:44 pm »
Evolution takes eight billion years (approx) to fix a minor design flaw, that's how useless it is.
:lulz: I'm just going to pretend you got the number wrong on purpose.  And we still have plenty of design flaws.

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #72 on: January 28, 2009, 08:06:42 pm »
Evolution takes eight billion years (approx) to fix a minor design flaw, that's how useless it is.
:lulz: I'm just going to pretend you got the number wrong on purpose.  And we still have plenty of design flaws.

They're ALL flaws.

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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #73 on: January 28, 2009, 08:30:59 pm »
Oh look.... some folks have a <sarcasm>positively brilliant</sarcasm> plan to fix the whole shebang...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090128/sc_afp/climatewarmingoceansgeo_20090128194253
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Re: Short rant on CLIMATE CHANGE.
« Reply #74 on: January 28, 2009, 08:32:10 pm »
Evolution takes eight billion years (approx) to fix a minor design flaw, that's how useless it is.
:lulz: I'm just going to pretend you got the number wrong on purpose.  And we still have plenty of design flaws.

They're ALL flaws.

Life is rogue nucleic acids that gained metabolism.
I am so fucking stealing that from you.