Author Topic: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO  (Read 38563 times)

Cramulus

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2009, 04:10:03 pm »
1 L
2 L
3 L, H
4 L, H
5 H
6 H


If BH guesses H, the odds of him being right are 4/6
If BH guesses L, the odds of him being right are 4/6

I suck at stats, but I'm pretty sure we should see a 66% success rate

AFK

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #46 on: July 02, 2009, 04:14:50 pm »
Yes, if he made 100 guesses, it is very likely he would get 50 to 60 of them correct. 
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LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #47 on: July 02, 2009, 04:15:31 pm »
Yeah, like I said, the probability he'll be right is 66%.

But the probability his predictions will have any effect on his final score seems to be 50%.

The only time a prediction can be considered "wrong" is if he says rolls of 1&2 are "High", and rolls of 5&6 are "low".

That really seems to me to be a more elaborate way of calling heads and tails.

AFK

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #48 on: July 02, 2009, 04:17:23 pm »
Yeah, like I said, the probability he'll be right is 66%.

But the probability his predictions will have any effect on his final score seems to be 50%.

The only time a prediction can be considered "wrong" is if he says rolls of 1&2 are "High", and rolls of 5&6 are "low".

That really seems to me to be a more elaborate way of calling heads and tails.

It essentially is, except it is a really wide coin that lands on its side roughly every third flip. 
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LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #49 on: July 02, 2009, 04:18:19 pm »
For example, I could roll the die, and ask, "is it 1&2, or is it 5&6?", and simply re-roll if it's 3&4, because either answer would be correct.

So, with a randomized rolling process, it should come up 1&2 equally as often as 5&6.  That's 50%, right?

Cainad (dec.)

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #50 on: July 02, 2009, 04:19:49 pm »
If you want to PM them to me, I can add it to the spreadsheet.

Sent.


And it does seem like an awfully complicated version of a coin flip. Why couldn't we do that, again?

LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #51 on: July 02, 2009, 04:20:55 pm »
Babylon claims his magic works best if he starts with a 2/3 chance of being right.  Which, technically, this does.

AFK

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #52 on: July 02, 2009, 04:24:26 pm »
For example, I could roll the die, and ask, "is it 1&2, or is it 5&6?", and simply re-roll if it's 3&4, because either answer would be correct.

So, with a randomized rolling process, it should come up 1&2 equally as often as 5&6.  That's 50%, right?

Sounds right.  Though, if you want to get technical, I think it would be 50% over a series of 100 rolls.  Cause in any one set of 100 rolls, you might, by chance, get an inordinate amount of one of the sets of numbers.  
Cynicism is a blank check for failure.

LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #53 on: July 02, 2009, 04:28:35 pm »
True.  Probability and actuality are fairly different.

Jenne

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #54 on: July 02, 2009, 04:49:03 pm »
If you want to PM them to me, I can add it to the spreadsheet.




I'll forward Thorney's shall I?

LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #55 on: July 02, 2009, 04:49:57 pm »
Go for it.

Jenne

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #56 on: July 02, 2009, 04:53:17 pm »
K, on it.

LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #57 on: July 02, 2009, 05:07:15 pm »
Cheers.

LMNO

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #58 on: July 02, 2009, 07:57:04 pm »
So, uh...



Anyone hear from Babylon today?

Thurnez Isa

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #59 on: July 02, 2009, 08:00:26 pm »
no why? spreadsheet done?
Through me the way to the city of woe, Through me the way to everlasting pain, Through me the way among the lost.
Justice moved my maker on high.
Divine power made me, Wisdom supreme, and Primal love.
Before me nothing was but things eternal, and eternal I endure.
Abandon all hope, you who enter here.

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