Author Topic: So, Cain  (Read 720 times)

Doktor Howl

  • Вся ваша база принадлежит нам
  • One-Armed Jizz Moppers
  • Deserved It
  • **
  • Posts: 407450
  • Horrible Bastard
    • View Profile
So, Cain
« on: May 02, 2012, 02:07:17 pm »
For those of us that don't watch TV, how is the Afghanistan war looking in the short, medium, and long term?  Best guess?
"Don't get me wrong, I greatly appreciate the fact that you're at least putting effort into sincerely arguing your points. It's an argument I've enjoyed having. It's just that your points are wrong and your reasons for thinking they're right are stupid."
- Cainad

"NOTHING IS AS BAD AS IT SEEMS.  BUT YOU'RE STILL FUCKED."
- Dirty Old Uncle Roger

Cain

  • Alea iacta est
  • Chekha
  • Deserved It
  • ****
  • Posts: 106184
    • View Profile
Re: So, Cain
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2012, 02:45:44 pm »
Well, I haven't been following it too much recently, but...

In the short and medium term, things are a stalemate.  US covert military assistance, funds and training will allow Karzai's government to survive, but hardly thrive.  The thing is, the Taliban are operating out of Quetta, and can recruit vast numbers of soldiers in the NWFP for future sorties, and unless Pakistan's policies change anytime soon, that means the Taliban will retreat across the border when things are bad, recruit more fighters, and wait until the next year to restart their offensive.

They've essentially kept that pattern up since the mid-90s, except when they seized power, so that is to be expected.

In the long term, one of two things will happen.  Either the Afghan government will allow limited powersharing with the Taliban, or else there will be civil war.  The former could split the moderate Islamists from the extremists, and so break apart the Taliban movement...but it would mean Afghanistan regressing even further on issues of women's rights, fair and representative government and so on.

Or the Taliban decide to go all out and succeed at taking several provinces, then using that to launch assaults on the rest of the country.

Or, possibly, a military coup.  Too many soldiers, too many Tajik officers in particular, and not a strong enough economy to support them all.  Tajiks = ex-Northern Alliance = no friends of the Taliban.  In fact, I would pretty much guarantee a military coup if the Taliban managed to seriously threaten Afghan territorial sovereignty.

In short, Afghanistan is pretty much where it was in 1992.

Doktor Howl

  • Вся ваша база принадлежит нам
  • One-Armed Jizz Moppers
  • Deserved It
  • **
  • Posts: 407450
  • Horrible Bastard
    • View Profile
Re: So, Cain
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2012, 02:47:09 pm »
Thanks.

Any guesses on how long we'll be there?  By "we", I mean America & Britain.
"Don't get me wrong, I greatly appreciate the fact that you're at least putting effort into sincerely arguing your points. It's an argument I've enjoyed having. It's just that your points are wrong and your reasons for thinking they're right are stupid."
- Cainad

"NOTHING IS AS BAD AS IT SEEMS.  BUT YOU'RE STILL FUCKED."
- Dirty Old Uncle Roger

Cain

  • Alea iacta est
  • Chekha
  • Deserved It
  • ****
  • Posts: 106184
    • View Profile
Re: So, Cain
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2012, 02:49:22 pm »
At least 2020, in a military capacity.  Intelligence and paramilitary wise, assuming no Taliban victory beforehand...add another 10 years.

Doktor Howl

  • Вся ваша база принадлежит нам
  • One-Armed Jizz Moppers
  • Deserved It
  • **
  • Posts: 407450
  • Horrible Bastard
    • View Profile
Re: So, Cain
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2012, 02:50:37 pm »
At least 2020, in a military capacity.  Intelligence and paramilitary wise, assuming no Taliban victory beforehand...add another 10 years.

Kinda thought as much.  Nobody's all hot & bothered about it, like they were with Iraq...So it gets to go on and on.
"Don't get me wrong, I greatly appreciate the fact that you're at least putting effort into sincerely arguing your points. It's an argument I've enjoyed having. It's just that your points are wrong and your reasons for thinking they're right are stupid."
- Cainad

"NOTHING IS AS BAD AS IT SEEMS.  BUT YOU'RE STILL FUCKED."
- Dirty Old Uncle Roger

Cain

  • Alea iacta est
  • Chekha
  • Deserved It
  • ****
  • Posts: 106184
    • View Profile
Re: So, Cain
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2012, 03:00:42 pm »
There'll be a huge song and dance about the 2014 withdrawal, which only the people paying attention will realise is a "reduction" in troop numbers and a handing over of authority to the Afghan government for military operations, not a total withdrawal.  Training will be ongoing, and Special Forces types will no doubt still be carrying out operations there.

Given the Afghan army has exactly one (1) fieldworthy unit, the 201st Corps, who can actually act without US military assistance, there is no way they're going to be left to run affairs on their own in just over 18 months.