undeveloped thought #655321B

[Cain]

Which is interesting in and of itself, since there was a study a couple of years back which showed depressed people (as in, clinically depressed) tended to have a more accurate worldview and make more realistic assessments about things.  Depression made people more precise and accurate thinkers.

[V3X]

Which is interesting in and of itself, since there was a study a couple of years back which showed depressed people (as in, clinically depressed) tended to have a more accurate worldview and make more realistic assessments about things.  Depression made people more precise and accurate thinkers.

That's because the more terrible you believe the world is, the closer you are to the Truth.

But this does not negate the fact that having a group of Eeyores and Marvins pissing and moaning all day long is not going to lead anywhere spectacular, unless you're a huge fan of Emo music.

Wait, that's what I'm going to call my new band: Eeyores and Marvins.

YOU PEOPLE ARE GENIUSES! See? What did I tell you!?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Didn't someone recently post a link to a study on the power of pessimistic thinking? Oh wait, no, that was my FBF. I need to find that. Apparently, people who think too positively fare worse in many ways than people who are more negative. I like to think that critical thinking has something to do with this, as being critical is often seen as negative, pessimistic, a "downer", but in reality exploring potential negative outcomes and remaining grounded in reality rather than sailing off into hopeful/wishful thinking can not only head off negative consequences, but also means that when you do take a risk, you take a GOOD risk.

Here it is: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/05/opinion/sunday/the-positive-power-of-negative-thinking.html

This article was interesting because some of the most abject failures I know are the people who do incredibly stupid things because they "choose to believe it will work out". Positive thinking at its finest. These people also seem more prone to depression, possibly because they are constantly having their hopes dashed by reality.

Nothing pisses me off more than people who bring positive thinking into my workplace.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Negative - there's no fucking point trying it'll all end up shit anyway

Positive - don't worry everything will work out fine in the end

Pragmatic - aint going to be easy. X, y and z are against us but if we don't try it'll never happen and at least we got a, b and c in our favour


I stand corrected - I wasn't taking about positive thinking after all

[LMNO, PhD (life continues)]

Like most woo, positive thinking has gotten way out of hand.  I like to think of myself as rationally optimistic, in a sort of risk-seeking way.

Negative: There's a 100% chance it won't work.
Positive: There's a 100% chance it will work.
Rational: There's a 63% chance it won't work, so it probably won't.
Rational Optimist: There's a 37% chance it will work, and we should take that risk because of the possible benefits.


Or something.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Like most woo, positive thinking has gotten way out of hand.  I like to think of myself as rationally optimistic, in a sort of risk-seeking way.

Negative: There's a 100% chance it won't work.
Positive: There's a 100% chance it will work.
Rational: There's a 63% chance it won't work, so it probably won't.
Rational Optimist: There's a 37% chance it will work, and we should take that risk because of the possible benefits.


Or something.

We're going to do X.

During X, expect delays, as factors Y & Z can (and therefore will) impact the job.

During X, expect extra costs (budget for them) incurred by Y & Z.

Do X.

[LMNO, PhD (life continues)]

ITT, Roger kicks the Planning Fallacy in the nads.

[M. Nigel Salt]

The way I look at it is, if you know your risks, you can take steps to alleviate them. It is also beneficial to be aware of your realistic worst case scenario.

Example: I need a new porch. Cost for building a new porch is about $8k. I don't have $8k. I could put it all on a credit card, but that is a poor investment. I could do a rough cost/benefit analysis and use some of my financial aid money to replace the floorboards, which will not resolve the problem of needing a full rebuild, but will alleviate my liability risk at a relatively minimal cost. Drawback: I also need new tires. Porch floorboards and new tires are about the same cost. Liability from someone falling through the porch is probably a lower risk than a freeway blowout or an accident in the rain with poor tread.

Solution: Use credit card to buy tires, use financial aid money to replace floorboards. Worry about mortgage later.

[LMNO, PhD (life continues)]

And lo, everything turned out for the best. In some sense.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

ITT, Roger kicks the Planning Fallacy in the nads.

Now, if only I could get Filthy Assistant on board. 

But that actually applies to just about anything, if you change the words around a little.


Joe wants to try doing stand up comedy.

He's inexperienced, and is reasonably sure he'll bomb, at least the first time out.

Joe psychs himself up to go out and make it happen, no matter what the audience does.  Plans to do something exciting immediately afterward, to get rid of that awful feeling, so that he'll have the guts to try again.

Joe tries doing stand up comedy.

[M. Nigel Salt]

And lo, everything turned out for the best. In some sense.

That's HOW you get things to turn out for the best, IMO. And if I didn't have financial aid or credit cards, I would take the ghetto road (I CAN SAY THAT BECAUSE I AM BLACK) and nail a piece of plywood over my rotting floorboards, and go to Double J Tire Center. Which I might do anyway.

I know a lot of diehard positive-thinkers who would charge up their credit card to pay for the porch and drop $600 on new tires, believing that it will just turn out OK, or, conversely, would ignore both problems for the same reason. Being aware of shit what might go wrong is the first step in fixing it, and IMO those "secret"-believing mofuckers have a tendency to ignore the negative until it's a problem too big to ignore.