Author Topic: CAIN!  (Read 912 times)

Doktor Howl

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CAIN!
« on: January 23, 2015, 03:16:34 am »
King Abdullah died an hour ago.

What are the chances that the house of Saud will survive his death?

Cain

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Re: CAIN!
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2015, 06:20:39 am »
Pretty good, in the short term.  Not to speak ill of the dead, but he really was a useless bag of shit, and most of the day to day running of the Kingdom was left to Crown Prince Nayef (IIRC).

Salman, who succeeds him, allegedly has Alzheimers.  And he's 79.  No doubt if the former is true, the plan is to lead him around by the nose, let the succession council rule in his name and hope he kicks the bucket before the next candidate in line reaches their 80th birthday.

In the longer term, things are looking more uncertain.  ISIS smoked a Saudi general last week.  No-one noticed because of what went down in Paris, but they got suicide bombers across the border and killed the commanding officer for border security in the North.  It's very possible a larger push will develop and...well, I dont credit the KSA Army with fighting spirit, lets put it that way

Doktor Howl

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Re: CAIN!
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2015, 02:22:23 pm »
Pretty good, in the short term.  Not to speak ill of the dead, but he really was a useless bag of shit, and most of the day to day running of the Kingdom was left to Crown Prince Nayef (IIRC).

Salman, who succeeds him, allegedly has Alzheimers.  And he's 79.  No doubt if the former is true, the plan is to lead him around by the nose, let the succession council rule in his name and hope he kicks the bucket before the next candidate in line reaches their 80th birthday.

In the longer term, things are looking more uncertain.  ISIS smoked a Saudi general last week.  No-one noticed because of what went down in Paris, but they got suicide bombers across the border and killed the commanding officer for border security in the North.  It's very possible a larger push will develop and...well, I dont credit the KSA Army with fighting spirit, lets put it that way

Which way do you think the Wahibbis (sp?) are gonna drop on the ISIS thing?  If they go against ISIS, SA might stand a chance.  If they are apathetic or sympathetic to ISIS, there goes SA.

Cain

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Re: CAIN!
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2015, 02:46:46 pm »
Well, the fact that ISIS were able to take out this general is strongly suggestive of sympathizers and intelligence from within the military.  I would not be surprised, if a large scale assault did happen, that the KSA Army would fade away like the Iraqis.  Hell, at least elements of the Iraqi Army have some experience of fighting.

According to polls carried out by the Washington Institite, ISIS doesn't have an overall broad level of support in Saudi Arabia.  They claim 5%...I personally suspect it's a bit higher, and its also worth noting the WI is a neocon-lite think tank.  The vast majority of ISIS foreign fighters are Saudi, over 3000, and they have been sponsoring sporadic terrorist attacks within the Kingdom.  Their support is also apparently growing:

Quote
    Saudi officials donít like to talk about it, but experts who closely follow developments inside the kingdom say ISIS enjoys growing support among ordinary Saudis, who see the group as the true champion of embattled Sunnis in their sectarian struggles against the Shiite-led governments in Iran and elsewhere. For many Saudis, ISIS also stands for a righteous, austere brand of Islam, while the royal family, they believe, is irredeemably corrupt.

Now, after years of condemning yet turning a blind eye to jihadists fighting against the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, the kingdomís leaders are increasingly worried about support for ISIS at home.

The ideology is similar enough that disgust for the House of Saud may act as a tipping point in deciding support for either.  Of course, the Saudis do have their pet mullahs, control of the media etc.

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: CAIN!
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2015, 07:25:13 pm »
I heard Yemen's president recently capitulated to end a standoff. Things are looking quite precarious.

I had not heard about the Saudi general at all, but I keep my nose to a nice comfortable grindstone lately rather than try to keep up with the global situations like I used to.
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Cain

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Re: CAIN!
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2015, 09:42:45 pm »
Yemen is a little different though, not least because it is almost permanently a clusterfuck there.  Furthermore, the insurgents are the Houthi rebels, whose religious affiliation is "Fiver" Zaidi Shiism and who are aligned with Hezbollah and Iran.  Al-Qaeda in Yemen have actually been fighting against them.

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: CAIN!
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2015, 12:21:40 am »
I remember hearing that they were Shiah on the radio now that I think of it.

I'm very far from well informed about the details of the troubles there. With the King dead and traitors in the military well placed enough to inform on a regional general's itinerary things sound potentially very unstable indeed. We shall see I guess.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz: