Author Topic: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?  (Read 49129 times)

MMIX

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #930 on: July 09, 2018, 03:07:52 pm »
Boris is no great loss either. I'm told he is the next rat who has left the stinking ship. [sic]
"My friend Paul just emailed to say his favourite placard in the London Trump protests was the one that said was ALL IN ALL YOU'RE JUST ANOTHER PRICK WITH NO WALL."

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #931 on: July 09, 2018, 04:38:44 pm »
Boris is no great loss either. I'm told he is the next rat who has left the stinking ship. [sic]
Boris never does anything in others interests, leadership challenge or election incoming
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Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #932 on: July 09, 2018, 08:54:10 pm »
I believe the 1922 Committee, who said last night they had enough votes for a leadership contest, was urging Boris to step down.

Are the 1922 Committee stupid enough to launch a hard Brexit coup agains Theresa May?  Maybe....I wouldn't put it past them.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #933 on: July 17, 2018, 04:56:32 am »
Parliament added an amendment  to block NI being in a different customs union, and no possibility of a border in the Irish sea.

That's the pooch screwed, there is no longer a negotiating position in between full EU alignment or no deal.
Regulatory alignment means being tied to the EU, it is the most humiliating option so I am now preparing for a no deal WTO scenario.

I don't know why Mogg and co thought Ireland would back down on the border or "soften our position if the deal is sweetened". It was fundamental, the basis of all other negotiation, as such the veto is going to played and we all get the worst possible outcome.
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Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #934 on: July 17, 2018, 11:29:47 am »
May's previous plan was never going to be accepted, but could probably have been used by the EU as a starting point for some form of negotiations.

This plan is just taking the piss.  The only reason we're not hearing so from Brussells is because they are deathly afraid that May's government will collapse with too much pressure put on it.

I think we've averted a no-confidence vote for this week, with these amendments.  But over the summer there's going to be a concerted campaign to undermine May.  It'll involve Boris, Steve Bannon and Rees-Mogg, among others. Once the summer recess is over, there may well be a major leadership challenge as soon as Westminster goes back to work (and just why are they taking a summer holiday during a national crisis? Because they can).

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #935 on: July 17, 2018, 01:37:33 pm »

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #936 on: July 17, 2018, 04:17:13 pm »
Parliament added an amendment  to block NI being in a different customs union, and no possibility of a border in the Irish sea.

That's the pooch screwed, there is no longer a negotiating position in between full EU alignment or no deal.
Regulatory alignment means being tied to the EU, it is the most humiliating option so I am now preparing for a no deal WTO scenario.

I don't know why Mogg and co thought Ireland would back down on the border or "soften our position if the deal is sweetened". It was fundamental, the basis of all other negotiation, as such the veto is going to played and we all get the worst possible outcome.

Can't you just ignore May's government entirely and just trade as normal?
I was a teen-aged shit-poster; as you can see, the condition became chronic.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #937 on: July 17, 2018, 05:38:18 pm »
Parliament added an amendment  to block NI being in a different customs union, and no possibility of a border in the Irish sea.

That's the pooch screwed, there is no longer a negotiating position in between full EU alignment or no deal.
Regulatory alignment means being tied to the EU, it is the most humiliating option so I am now preparing for a no deal WTO scenario.

I don't know why Mogg and co thought Ireland would back down on the border or "soften our position if the deal is sweetened". It was fundamental, the basis of all other negotiation, as such the veto is going to played and we all get the worst possible outcome.

Can't you just ignore May's government entirely and just trade as normal?

43% of all agriculture is currently exported to the UK. On world trade organisation rules, these suddenly have 21% slapped on them on both sides. We can live with it and the EU has floated that it will absorb half of that in new demand for milk and dairy to european countries.

The border in the north of Ireland is the issue.  In anything but full EU alignment for Northern Ireland, it needs a border. The EU will push us for it in a non WTO scenario where NI isnt in the customs union.

The republic will now need to veto negotiations if they dont get that alignment, as in WTO the UK its forced to address the border while the EU has to give leniency to the republic or rather can't enforce fines on us.

If the U.K. puts in a border, there are more crossings than the border in eastern Europe it would make trumps wall cost look like chump change, in this scenario the north will have a border poll and will either become part of the republic and the UVF(UK nationalists) terrorism problem becomes ours or they vote to stay in the U.K. in which case the IRA (republican nationalists) rise to the tune of  Delores ni Reardons Zombie. Either way sucks. Europe will repeatedly say that the republic Needs to put up a border if the UK dont, which we will ignore unless they intend to pay for it which they wont.
If no border is erected and the UK ends up on WTO  with no border, northern Ireland basically becomes a smuggling port like a more rainy miserable Morocco/Interzone. (Which ironically undermines the whole thing of controlling foreigners going into the UK).
That shitty position of putting the UK on WTO at the moment looks like the best possible option for ireland, we know what a century of no work and a crippled economy looks like. For the U.K. it might come as a shock, it will make the Thatcher years look like a bump in the road.
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Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #938 on: July 17, 2018, 05:42:50 pm »


The long term gain of clean trade could be good for the U.K provided the EU fails, if it even stays the same or grows the UK in all likelyhood loses out on the benfits of that. Or if Europe decides to be the bad guy in another world war. Which makes me wonder if that is the real push to leave? What do leave know that we dont, because its certainly not the benefits of fisheries and blue passports.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #939 on: July 17, 2018, 05:48:27 pm »
Which makes me wonder if that is the real push to leave?

Putin.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #940 on: July 17, 2018, 10:05:14 pm »

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #941 on: July 17, 2018, 10:38:30 pm »
Fuck its actually come to this. Reading those comments on that though.
So many people think this is a game of chicken, that the EU is going to blink, its not a harmonious union, the member states mostly hate each other, agreeing anything is slow and tedious, the only thing that is agreed is that a fair rule book be applied to all members, its not a negiotating position to insist that if you want the benefits, you get the cons, no other option was ever going to fly.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #942 on: July 17, 2018, 10:44:06 pm »
Fuck its actually come to this. Reading those comments on that though.
So many people think this is a game of chicken, that the EU is going to blink, its not a harmonious union, the member states mostly hate each other, agreeing anything is slow and tedious, the only thing that is agreed is that a fair rule book be applied to all members, its not a negiotating position to insist that if you want the benefits, you get the cons, no other option was ever going to fly.

That's the amazing part about all of this.  Everyone's hollering out their intentions, and nobody believes each other.
I was a teen-aged shit-poster; as you can see, the condition became chronic.