Who called it? I called it - USA has "deal" with Sinaloa Cartel

[LMNO]

Essentially, you are taking control of a situation by proxy. No one in their right mind is going to cross the big dog. By stating that you recognise the boss of a territory at the same time as saying you're not happy with how business is being run in said territory, you're implying that, if shit doesn't sort itself out, you'll be handing out a slapping. Again implicit is the fact that the slapping will be dropped on the boss. At this point it becomes in all the players best interests to keep their heads down.

I've seen this done on a much smaller scale and it's 110% effective, given that the one handing out the slappings is respected enough. If I was a columbian cartel and the US govt was threatening me with a slapping, I think I'd be inclined to fall in line.

I was going to say, this is very similar to how I tend to run a kitchen.

[The Johnny]

Well, new president, perhaps new deal... cartels got violent when PAN got to power, because government started siding with a specific Cartel and that offset the balance of power, plazas and delimitated and stable territories. This happned 13 years ago, due to 2 consecutive PAN presidency, which are real politik noobies...

PRI used to be always the victor of elections (by fraud, assasination, etc) but even as a one party system, perhaps it was better... they were the sole rulers, so they didnt have to split the loot of the countries riches between so many hands, so it was easier to keep the beast well fed (now we have a monstruous bureaucracy)... also, they had all the connections and power, thus, intricate negotiations could be made that didnt depend so much on inter party politics and the whim of the moment... PRI also arent religious zealots (WELL at least by comparison, theres a difference between PRI that would pay for the Popes visit, but PANs Fox kneeled and kissed the Popes hand, literally)

[tyrannosaurus vex]

my father-in-law: If I was president, I'd just march the Army down there and kick all their asses. That would shut'em up. 'Murrica! But you don't see that lily-livered pansy Obama doing it.
me: Yeah that's a great idea. We could totally take those guys out.
F-I-L: No kidding! I dunno why they let that low-level civil war just go on forever down there. 'Murrica to the rescue!
me: Seriously. I bet we'd kick at least as much ass as we did in Korea and Vietnam, and it's right next door! What could go wrong?
F-I-L: Shut up.

[Left]

my father-in-law: If I was president, I'd just march the Army down there and kick all their asses. That would shut'em up. 'Murrica! But you don't see that lily-livered pansy Obama doing it.
me: Yeah that's a great idea. We could totally take those guys out.
F-I-L: No kidding! I dunno why they let that low-level civil war just go on forever down there. 'Murrica to the rescue!
me: Seriously. I bet we'd kick at least as much ass as we did in Korea and Vietnam, and it's right next door! What could go wrong?
F-I-L: Shut up.

[Telarus]

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-mexico-michoacan-20140113,0,163208.story

Cain, odd are pretty good that at least some of these "self-help" vigilante groups are Sinaola soldiers, right?

[Left]

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-mexico-michoacan-20140113,0,163208.story

Cain, odd are pretty good that at least some of these "self-help" vigilante groups are Sinaola soldiers, right?

Glad you asked. I was wanting Cain's take on that when I read about it a couple of days ago.

[The Johnny]

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-mexico-michoacan-20140113,0,163208.story

Cain, odd are pretty good that at least some of these "self-help" vigilante groups are Sinaola soldiers, right?

hear ye, hear ye!

http://alainet.org/active/69863

[Cain]

Well, new president, perhaps new deal...

Perhaps, but I'm leaning towards "meet the new boss, same as the old boss".

I've been reading Annabel Hernandez's book on the cartel over the past couple of months (which is, IMO, very good), and the situation she describes does not seem to be limited to party lines.  Despite the apparent liberalization and opening of Mexico's political party power structure, personal access to the cartels remains a shortcut to influence in a political career. and the cartels wont turn away somone they can later blackmail for influence should the situation require it. 

Which is, in fact, probably part of the problem, as it means the cartels are drawn into state power struggles.  Back in the day, when the PRI really ruled the roost, the cartels had to pay their taxes to operate, just like everyone else.  The state took a cut, and promised not to interfere.  Of course, both the Mexican state and the cartels were a lot more cohesive back then.

[Cain]

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-mexico-michoacan-20140113,0,163208.story

Cain, odd are pretty good that at least some of these "self-help" vigilante groups are Sinaola soldiers, right?

I haven't read the article Johnny posted, and I honestly don't know much about them, but my guess is while some may be, the majority are not.  Not least because the Mexican state are actually disarming them, whereas if they were Sinaloa surrogates, they might organise them into AUC-style deathsquads.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Essentially, you are taking control of a situation by proxy. No one in their right mind is going to cross the big dog. By stating that you recognise the boss of a territory at the same time as saying you're not happy with how business is being run in said territory, you're implying that, if shit doesn't sort itself out, you'll be handing out a slapping. Again implicit is the fact that the slapping will be dropped on the boss. At this point it becomes in all the players best interests to keep their heads down.

I've seen this done on a much smaller scale and it's 110% effective, given that the one handing out the slappings is respected enough. If I was a columbian cartel and the US govt was threatening me with a slapping, I think I'd be inclined to fall in line.

I was going to say, this is very similar to how I tend to run a kitchen.

I learned it when I was employed in the distribution industry but I believe it's pretty much universal 

[Telarus]

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-mexico-michoacan-20140113,0,163208.story

Cain, odd are pretty good that at least some of these "self-help" vigilante groups are Sinaola soldiers, right?

I haven't read the article Johnny posted, and I honestly don't know much about them, but my guess is while some may be, the majority are not.  Not least because the Mexican state are actually disarming them, whereas if they were Sinaloa surrogates, they might organise them into AUC-style deathsquads.

Thanks, this lines up with what I've been thinking (that a minority may be, but most are locals) after reading up on the local situation a bit & my roommate noting the era of, & maintenance state of, the weapons that the vigilante groups are carrying.

[Left]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25774430

Edited...
Just digging into this for something to do:

http://hngwiusa.wordpress.com/2014/01/15/mexican-federal-government-suspends-disarmament-of-michoacan-civilian-self-defense-security-forces/

La Ruana, Michoacán – The Mexican federal government on Tuesday agreed to suspend the disarmament of the Michoacán Civilian Self-defense Security Forces (MCSSF) until a later date, according to Hípolito Mora, one of the leaders of the MCSSF in La Ruana...
...Mora confirmed, that the Mexican federal government has agreed to suspend the disarmament of the MCSSF until a later date.

And this nasty little thought from the NY times:

The self-defense group, armed with automatic rifles and police-style pickups that it said had been seized from the gang, swept in. The group denied suggestions by some in the government that it represented another gang, the New Generation, but when questioned about how ordinary farmers could disarm vicious and hardened criminals, members declined to discuss tactics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/16/world/americas/a-quandary-for-mexico-as-vigilantes-rise.html?_r=0

Damned if I know.

[Cain]

Looks like they kidnapped the leader of the Autodefensas and dragged him off to Mexico City to discuss terms.  In the meantime, the army are simultaneously disarming and rearming the Autodefensas groups.

This could indicate the army are corrupt and some units are using this as a chance to make some money.  Or, more worryingly, the army is sorting through the trustworthy and untrustworthy autodefensas groups from their POV, and arming the ones they want to act as their proxies in the region.

This could be the start of Mexican death squads, a la the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia.

[Junkenstein]

Is there any reason it couldn't be a combination of both? I wouldn't be shocked if we later learn that some are being armed by corrupt elements and others armed by political motivations leading to an almighty clusterfuck. For some reason that seems very plausible to me.

[Cain]

Army's generally look down on people making a profit selling things belonging to them.  There might be small scale selling of handguns and things, but the Mexican Army is a fairly professional body, and selling without sanction is a big no-no.