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So, I've been looking at the polling and funding data...

Started by Cain, September 21, 2012, 04:15:30 PM

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Cain

....and I've come across a horrormirthy possibility for the UK's 2015 elections.

Let me lay out my case first, as I see it:

The last election was heavily contested by the Tories.  Economic mistakes made by Labour were seen to have led to and compounded the economic crisis.  In addition to that, the government had seemed to be in a permament state of crisis since Brown, a man with all the charisma of a half-decayed mackeral, took over from Tony Blair.

Equally, the Lib Dems were polling, at times, with their best results in history.  While, as it eventually turned out, this could not be sustained, their inclusion in the first televised debates suggested they were now considered a contender for government, rather than sideshow agitators.

Given this, a crushing defeat for Labour was expected at the hands of the Tories, with the Lib Dems perhaps taking a significant bite out of Labour's supporters.

Instead, what actually happened was the Tories managed to win the most seats in Parliament without winning a Parliamentary majority.  Therefore, they had to forge an alliance with the Lib Dems to have a stable government.

Now, flash foward two and a half years.  The Tories are less popular than they were in 2010.  The Lib Dems have basically halved in popularity in the polls.  And Labour's position in the polls has increased, though they have not actually picked up many extra supporters since 2010.  The 2015 election is shaping up to be yet another potentially deadlocked Parliament, especially since a weakened Lib Dem Party wont be able to shore up enough support for either party to attain a majority.

Now, enter UKIP.  The somewhat hysterically named UK Independence Party are a right-wing, libertarian, xenophobic, scientifically illiterate and frequently anti-Islamic party opposed to the European Union and the UK's position in it.  Recently, UKIP have been capitalizing on right-wing Tory disenchantment with Cameron's government, which is seen as "wet" and far too sympathetic to the Liberal Democrats in general and Vince Cable (one-time Labour Party member and possible next leader of the Lib Dems) in particular.

Because of a recent influx of funding by former Tory donors to UKIP and the ongoing European economic crisis (which is being used as an excuse for federalization) UKIP is now polling equal with the Lib Dems at the moment, at 8%.  This doesn't sound too amazing, of course, but before the 2015 elections, there will be European Parliament elections, where UKIP tend to do quite well.  If they manage an especially good set of results, they could easily capitalize on that for the 2015 elections 

Furthermore, the Tories know their main opponents for votes are UKIP.  If some kind of arrangement could be made between the two, not running against each other in certain districts etc then there is definitely a case that the 2015 government could be a Tory government, not moderated by the Liberal Democrats, but unhinged even further by their dependency on UKIP.

If so, it will be popcorn time.  I, for one, cannot wait.

Freeky


LMNO

Are UKIP sort of a British Tea Party?  If so, that sounds a hell of a lot like The 2010 American elections.

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Cain

Sort of, yes.  They've existed for a lot longer than your mob though, and instead of acting through the major rightwing party, decided to split off and do their own thing.

As the name suggests, they are incredibly occupied with the whole issue of the European Union.  That's their thing, the major thing that stops them from being Tories.  As far as they are concerned, Tory Euroscepticism is far too accomodating of the EU as a project, and it needs to be opposed by withdrawal and bi-lateral treaties with various European states which preserve British sovereignty while allowing freedom of trade with Europe's various states (ignoring for the moment that since almost all European states have their trading standards set by the EU, this would involve signing treaties with the EU and meeting EU regulatory and production standards etc etc).

That aside, they've acted as a rather effective net for catching various right wing conspiracy theorist loons who aren't drafted into the BNP or EDL-BF nexus.  Climate change denialists, Eurabia conspiracy theorists, goldbugs and so on are numerous within their ranks.  Much like the Tea Party

Kai

Quote from: Cain on September 21, 2012, 04:15:30 PM
....and I've come across a horrormirthy possibility for the UK's 2015 elections.

Let me lay out my case first, as I see it:

The last election was heavily contested by the Tories.  Economic mistakes made by Labour were seen to have led to and compounded the economic crisis.  In addition to that, the government had seemed to be in a permament state of crisis since Brown, a man with all the charisma of a half-decayed mackeral, took over from Tony Blair.

Equally, the Lib Dems were polling, at times, with their best results in history.  While, as it eventually turned out, this could not be sustained, their inclusion in the first televised debates suggested they were now considered a contender for government, rather than sideshow agitators.

Given this, a crushing defeat for Labour was expected at the hands of the Tories, with the Lib Dems perhaps taking a significant bite out of Labour's supporters.

Instead, what actually happened was the Tories managed to win the most seats in Parliament without winning a Parliamentary majority.  Therefore, they had to forge an alliance with the Lib Dems to have a stable government.

Now, flash foward two and a half years.  The Tories are less popular than they were in 2010.  The Lib Dems have basically halved in popularity in the polls.  And Labour's position in the polls has increased, though they have not actually picked up many extra supporters since 2010.  The 2015 election is shaping up to be yet another potentially deadlocked Parliament, especially since a weakened Lib Dem Party wont be able to shore up enough support for either party to attain a majority.

Now, enter UKIP.  The somewhat hysterically named UK Independence Party are a right-wing, libertarian, xenophobic, scientifically illiterate and frequently anti-Islamic party opposed to the European Union and the UK's position in it.  Recently, UKIP have been capitalizing on right-wing Tory disenchantment with Cameron's government, which is seen as "wet" and far too sympathetic to the Liberal Democrats in general and Vince Cable (one-time Labour Party member and possible next leader of the Lib Dems) in particular.

Because of a recent influx of funding by former Tory donors to UKIP and the ongoing European economic crisis (which is being used as an excuse for federalization) UKIP is now polling equal with the Lib Dems at the moment, at 8%.  This doesn't sound too amazing, of course, but before the 2015 elections, there will be European Parliament elections, where UKIP tend to do quite well.  If they manage an especially good set of results, they could easily capitalize on that for the 2015 elections 

Furthermore, the Tories know their main opponents for votes are UKIP.  If some kind of arrangement could be made between the two, not running against each other in certain districts etc then there is definitely a case that the 2015 government could be a Tory government, not moderated by the Liberal Democrats, but unhinged even further by their dependency on UKIP.

If so, it will be popcorn time.  I, for one, cannot wait.

Your politics are much more exciting than ours. We just get the two man con. You get the multi-man cacophony.
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Quote from: ZL 'Kai' Burington, M.S. on September 22, 2012, 01:13:41 AM
Quote from: Cain on September 21, 2012, 04:15:30 PM
....and I've come across a horrormirthy possibility for the UK's 2015 elections.

Let me lay out my case first, as I see it:

The last election was heavily contested by the Tories.  Economic mistakes made by Labour were seen to have led to and compounded the economic crisis.  In addition to that, the government had seemed to be in a permament state of crisis since Brown, a man with all the charisma of a half-decayed mackeral, took over from Tony Blair.

Equally, the Lib Dems were polling, at times, with their best results in history.  While, as it eventually turned out, this could not be sustained, their inclusion in the first televised debates suggested they were now considered a contender for government, rather than sideshow agitators.

Given this, a crushing defeat for Labour was expected at the hands of the Tories, with the Lib Dems perhaps taking a significant bite out of Labour's supporters.

Instead, what actually happened was the Tories managed to win the most seats in Parliament without winning a Parliamentary majority.  Therefore, they had to forge an alliance with the Lib Dems to have a stable government.

Now, flash foward two and a half years.  The Tories are less popular than they were in 2010.  The Lib Dems have basically halved in popularity in the polls.  And Labour's position in the polls has increased, though they have not actually picked up many extra supporters since 2010.  The 2015 election is shaping up to be yet another potentially deadlocked Parliament, especially since a weakened Lib Dem Party wont be able to shore up enough support for either party to attain a majority.

Now, enter UKIP.  The somewhat hysterically named UK Independence Party are a right-wing, libertarian, xenophobic, scientifically illiterate and frequently anti-Islamic party opposed to the European Union and the UK's position in it.  Recently, UKIP have been capitalizing on right-wing Tory disenchantment with Cameron's government, which is seen as "wet" and far too sympathetic to the Liberal Democrats in general and Vince Cable (one-time Labour Party member and possible next leader of the Lib Dems) in particular.

Because of a recent influx of funding by former Tory donors to UKIP and the ongoing European economic crisis (which is being used as an excuse for federalization) UKIP is now polling equal with the Lib Dems at the moment, at 8%.  This doesn't sound too amazing, of course, but before the 2015 elections, there will be European Parliament elections, where UKIP tend to do quite well.  If they manage an especially good set of results, they could easily capitalize on that for the 2015 elections 

Furthermore, the Tories know their main opponents for votes are UKIP.  If some kind of arrangement could be made between the two, not running against each other in certain districts etc then there is definitely a case that the 2015 government could be a Tory government, not moderated by the Liberal Democrats, but unhinged even further by their dependency on UKIP.

If so, it will be popcorn time.  I, for one, cannot wait.

Your politics are much more exciting than ours. We just get the two man con. You get the multi-man cacophony.

Agreed.  It's like watching a mosh pit.
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Junkenstein

Considering the potential deal-making here gets quite fun. Consider the situation in the relatively recent past with Irish seats ending up with what could be seen as dis-proportionate sway based around the fact they get to make the government.

The lib-dems have shown that if you don't walk away, you get the shaft. The lesson this teaches the more right-leaning parties is bully the shit out of them. The passenger seat now has a brake. The brake makes an election happen and the chances are you'll do well. I assume this because it's the UK and the sympathy vote will likely take the minority party to increased power and control.


As they say, hilarity will probably ensue.




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Quote from: Fidel Castro on September 22, 2012, 01:34:40 AM
Quote from: ZL 'Kai' Burington, M.S. on September 22, 2012, 01:13:41 AM
Quote from: Cain on September 21, 2012, 04:15:30 PM
....and I've come across a horrormirthy possibility for the UK's 2015 elections.

Let me lay out my case first, as I see it:

The last election was heavily contested by the Tories.  Economic mistakes made by Labour were seen to have led to and compounded the economic crisis.  In addition to that, the government had seemed to be in a permament state of crisis since Brown, a man with all the charisma of a half-decayed mackeral, took over from Tony Blair.

Equally, the Lib Dems were polling, at times, with their best results in history.  While, as it eventually turned out, this could not be sustained, their inclusion in the first televised debates suggested they were now considered a contender for government, rather than sideshow agitators.

Given this, a crushing defeat for Labour was expected at the hands of the Tories, with the Lib Dems perhaps taking a significant bite out of Labour's supporters.

Instead, what actually happened was the Tories managed to win the most seats in Parliament without winning a Parliamentary majority.  Therefore, they had to forge an alliance with the Lib Dems to have a stable government.

Now, flash foward two and a half years.  The Tories are less popular than they were in 2010.  The Lib Dems have basically halved in popularity in the polls.  And Labour's position in the polls has increased, though they have not actually picked up many extra supporters since 2010.  The 2015 election is shaping up to be yet another potentially deadlocked Parliament, especially since a weakened Lib Dem Party wont be able to shore up enough support for either party to attain a majority.

Now, enter UKIP.  The somewhat hysterically named UK Independence Party are a right-wing, libertarian, xenophobic, scientifically illiterate and frequently anti-Islamic party opposed to the European Union and the UK's position in it.  Recently, UKIP have been capitalizing on right-wing Tory disenchantment with Cameron's government, which is seen as "wet" and far too sympathetic to the Liberal Democrats in general and Vince Cable (one-time Labour Party member and possible next leader of the Lib Dems) in particular.

Because of a recent influx of funding by former Tory donors to UKIP and the ongoing European economic crisis (which is being used as an excuse for federalization) UKIP is now polling equal with the Lib Dems at the moment, at 8%.  This doesn't sound too amazing, of course, but before the 2015 elections, there will be European Parliament elections, where UKIP tend to do quite well.  If they manage an especially good set of results, they could easily capitalize on that for the 2015 elections 

Furthermore, the Tories know their main opponents for votes are UKIP.  If some kind of arrangement could be made between the two, not running against each other in certain districts etc then there is definitely a case that the 2015 government could be a Tory government, not moderated by the Liberal Democrats, but unhinged even further by their dependency on UKIP.

If so, it will be popcorn time.  I, for one, cannot wait.

Your politics are much more exciting than ours. We just get the two man con. You get the multi-man cacophony.

Agreed.  It's like watching a mosh pit.

Requires too much concentration for the casual fan, tho. You get two guys talking shite, we get fifty and the only ones who can remember all the names are diehard fanatics. It's why I gave up on politics and teevee soap operas years ago and switched to Michael Bay movies which are a much easier to follow and more entertaining form of fiction from where I'm standing.

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Cain

Just call me the Sage of Peedeedotcom

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20490937

QuoteDavid Cameron should urgently consider a pact with UKIP to try to prevent them threatening the Tories at the next election, his elections adviser says.

Michael Fabricant suggests offering an in/out referendum on UK membership of the EU if UKIP promises not to stand against Tory candidates in 2015.

He told the BBC some Tories believed UKIP offered a "better deal" on Europe.

But UKIP leader Nigel Farage appeared to reject the suggestion, tweeting: "No deals with the Tories: it's war."

In an internal report to the prime minister the senior MP, who oversees campaigns on the ground, details the threat that UKIP now poses and says the party is costing the Tories votes in crucial marginal constituencies.

'Open debate'

He says an electoral pact with UKIP - in which the Conservatives would promise a referendum after 2015 and in return UKIP would not stand against Tory candidates - could help the Conservatives win an extra 20-40 seats at the next election.

Farange is just grandstanding - he knows if he plays obstinate, he can wring extra concessions out of a deeply worried Tory Party.

Pope Pixie Pickle

so, as a lefty tactical voter, and a Green voter when I don't have to vote tactically to avoid Tories or UKIP et al,

Do you think the Greens will steal a lot of former Lib Dem voters who can't face voting Labour?




Cain

Depends if Vince Cable successfully deposes Nick Clegg for the good of the party or not.  If Clegg goes down, I see a lot of former voters being much more forgiving.

MMIX

So what do you think of the Scottish elephant in the room, Cain? Surely even if the 2014 referendum shows that independence is a white elephant I would suspect that it will muddy the political waters for the 2015 election. The old idea that if Scotland gets her independence there will never be another Labour govt. in Westminster may need some re-thinking but win or lose the Scot Nats are going to have an interesting effect on the next General Election. Any thoughts?
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Cain

Well, realistically, I don't see Scotland leaving.  The support for it just isn't there, especially if "Devo-Max" (who I thought were a Devo tribute band) is on the cards.

How that might be used in an election, however, is a somewhat different question, of course.  Depending on the tone of the campaign, I can quite easily see some New Labour attack dogs being let off the leash, running around and accusing both the Tories and the SNP of being un-British and lacking in patriotism.  Slightly Red Ed will make a sad face and speak of how he does not agree but cannot censor his own party members whenever questioned.

That could work on some English voters, I guess, but might backfire on Labour if done too over the top.  Apart from that, I'm going to have to think about it.