I have the greatest book EVER

[Sepia]

Please do scan and present as pee dee eff.

I was just in the two bookstores that could have had it, in the first the offered me Pope's 100% instead and in the other they asked if I'd read silent spring.  

[Cain]

Hmm, thats going to be tricky, without a scanner.

Anyone else got the goods?

[Rev. St. Syn, KSC (Ret.)]

Damn, I want this book.

[Cramulus]

http://www.cwyohba.org/noexit/Black%20Swan%20Prologue.pdf

there ya go!

I kind of fucked up the scanning somehow
to read it, you'll have rotate it 90 degrees. Or print it and turn it 90 degrees manually.

I could probably figure this out but i had a lot of beer at lunch with the lunch cabal today.


My Job > Yuor Job
probably

[Triple Zero]

to read it, you'll have rotate it 90 degrees. Or print it and turn it 90 degrees manually.

that weird phrase just made me smile

also, it reminds me of an idea for a summer project i long forgotten about, where i was going to layout a (amateur) magazine "manually". that is, without help of InDesign, armed with nothing except a printer, scissors, tape, glue and a photocopymachine.

and whiteout.

[Xooxe]

Thank you for the prologue Professor Cramulus. After reading it, i'm not really interested in reading the full book.    I don't know how to put it without sounding like a snob - it doesn't seem to have anything to say that I haven't already read, learnt or talked about. I don't doubt that there is probably something new to learn about in there, but perhaps I didn't find the prologue very engaging.

[Sepia]

Bought the book today, first hardcover book I've bought since I begun studying and if I wasn't headed home this weekend I couldn't have afforded it but it looks nice.

[The Apex, The Harmony Of]

I saw an actual black swan a few weeks ago in Cambridge.
As in the creature, not the unfolding information of an event.

[Triple Zero]

i just wanted to say i got this book from Sinterklaas last weekend, i just finished the introduction (no i didn't read Cram's scan, i generally rather read hardcopy), and it looks like it's going to be an awesome book so far!

apart from a few bits, where he kind of seems to state that actually, nobody can predict anything, ever. which is kind of taking it too far, IMO. but i presume he'll get back to that in the rest of his book.
and the semi-funny tone with phrases like "they also usually wear ties", i'm more interested in what he really has to say.. but i can live with that.

[rygD]

I went  ahead and ordered it...

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Added to cart so as not to forget.

[Richter]

Considering parts of it actually validate my degree,  I'm quite fond of it.

[Triple Zero]

your degree = what?

cause my degree will be in Machine Learning and Pattern Recognition, and prediction algorithms and such .. in other words, i have the sinking feeling this book will sorta invalidate my degree..

otoh, it'll give me good ammo to tease my professor with.

it'll probably buy me more respect than contesting his example of astrology being an illustration of the dangers of dimensional reduction (star signs being a good example of arbitrary patterns found in a dataset that has been reduced from 3 to 2 dimensions).

[Richter]

Psychology.  I recall Taleb mentioning the analytic methods of psychology as one of few examples of statistics beign used properly (correlation =/= relation, and probability =/= actuality, for example).  An important point, and a I think lot of the folks who took the classes missed it, (Psych seen as an easy, soft field by some).  I was more into the neuroanatomy, pathology and biochemcial aspects, and there is definetly disciplined, traditional science invovled.
(Gets of soapbox)

I don't think this book would invalidate your own field much at all, depending on how it's gone about.  If anything, the book disects ways in which our own natural pattern recognition leads us to incorrect conclusions in larger scale opperations.  (Makes sense, as we didn't evolve with stock markets.)

Something I read in an English translation of a Japanese novel that summed it up well :
"The World is full of mistake"

[The Apex, The Harmony Of]

It doesnt get very good reviews on www.bookdepository.co.uk .
I feel I should definately buy it now 

"This book is bad. You would have more fun trying to have a conversation with a bowl of corn flakes."
Does this appear in the Principia anywhere?