Hmm. The way I see it, unless there's an igniting crisis, Sunak will just glide along until election day.
That said, there are so many looming crises that you can almost take your pick. At this point I consider public sector strikes escalating into wildcat strikes and the government trying to bring in emergency powers to curb their ability to legally strike to be a leading contender. Mike Lynch is charismatic and eats government reporters for breakfast, people are sympathetic to nurses and when the army inevitably gets pulled in, people will feel sorry for the squaddies and blame the suits, not the unions, for their woes.
Energy and cost of living crisis factors into that. Government continues to sit on its hands and do nothing. How many more businesses need to go under before the combination of those out of work and those in work but severely underpaid threaten to tilt into a crisis? How many families having to chose between heating and going bankrupt during what's projected to be an especially harsh winter?
EU negotiations are going suspiciously well...which means the Brexit gang are working themselves up to calling treason on Sunak. They're already putting Priti Patel forward to test the waters, but I think she's just to see how things look and not the real contender.
That said, there are so many looming crises that you can almost take your pick. At this point I consider public sector strikes escalating into wildcat strikes and the government trying to bring in emergency powers to curb their ability to legally strike to be a leading contender. Mike Lynch is charismatic and eats government reporters for breakfast, people are sympathetic to nurses and when the army inevitably gets pulled in, people will feel sorry for the squaddies and blame the suits, not the unions, for their woes.
Energy and cost of living crisis factors into that. Government continues to sit on its hands and do nothing. How many more businesses need to go under before the combination of those out of work and those in work but severely underpaid threaten to tilt into a crisis? How many families having to chose between heating and going bankrupt during what's projected to be an especially harsh winter?
EU negotiations are going suspiciously well...which means the Brexit gang are working themselves up to calling treason on Sunak. They're already putting Priti Patel forward to test the waters, but I think she's just to see how things look and not the real contender.