Random News Stories

[Cain]

Also, interestingly, the author's depiction of Al-Qaeda as being less messianic is directly at odds with the reports of Syed Saleem Shahzad, a Pakistani journalist who had extenstive access to both Al-Qaeda commanders and Taliban leaders.  Given Shahzad was eventually assassinated for his reporting (prime suspect: Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence), while most western journalists tend to bloviate on what they get told by people who probably get their information from the ISI, I tend to place a higher premium on his reporting than I do on most others.

And he was talking, in 2010-11, about how "Mahdi fever" seemed to be gripping the ranks, complete with a lot of talk about the end times.  In Pakistan.

I strongly suspect the split between ISIS and AQ has a lot less to do with doctrinal differences, a post-hoc justification that suits both sides if I ever heard one - and more to do with Al-Qaeda refusing to bestow recognition on ISIS as the official Al-Qaeda franchise in Syria, back when ISIS was the name for a venture branch of the broader Islamic State of Iraq.  Al-Qaeda bestowed its recognition on Jabhat al-Nusra, mostly because the elements who made up the "Khorasan Group" and "Wolf Unit" at the heart of JaN were old pros with extensive links to Al-Qaeda in Pakistan.  By contrast, the Iraqi branch of Al-Qaeda had always been a rogue group who had existed mostly outside of Al-Qaeda's authority.  The groups origins were not even with Al-Qaeda - their leader, al-Zaqawi, struck a deal with AQ to use their name to add to his prestige, while allowing Bin Laden to pose at being at the forefront of resistance in Iraq to the Americans, at a time when he mostly wasn't.  Their severe sectarianism started with Zarqawi, and even back then it was sufficiently fanatical to disturb Al-Qaeda.

[Cain]

And here's an article by a blogger I know, who has a background in analysing jihadist web propaganda output, who makes the case that the Atlantic article is mistaking ISIS propaganda for reality.

[Karapac]

Thank you Cain, you're great.

[Cain]

Not a problem.  Like I said, it's....it is a bad article, but it's bad in a special way that someone has actually done some research, but clearly not enough, and has quite the political agenda behind what they are saying.  Denying the political relevance of terrorist groups by concentrating on the emphera of their beliefs is a pretty old trick, and usually does little to advance real understanding.  Given the complex, multifaceted nature of political violence, the last thing we want is simplistic notions like "they hate our freedoms" or "they're religious nuts", which is what the latter boils down to.

I mean, the comparison with Koresh is very revealing, IMO.  You can't even begin to compare the Branch Davidians to ISIS.  One is an expanionist, conquering ideology.  The Branch Davidians wanted to be left alone to do their weird and creepy underage "spiritual marriage" things, their outlook was fundamentally defensive, if still militant.  Even the later federal report into the Waco disaster concedes this:

"The violent tendencies of dangerous cults can be classified into two general categories—defensive violence and offensive violence. Defensive violence is utilized by cults to defend a compound or enclave that was created specifically to eliminate most contact with the dominant culture. The 1993 clash in Waco, Texas at the Branch Davidian complex is an illustration of such defensive violence. History has shown that groups that seek to withdraw from the dominant culture seldom act on their beliefs that the endtime has come unless provoked."

But since Waco is considered, at least by mainstream Americans, as a case of crazy cultists with firearms attacking the US government, it's the perfect comparison for drawing out that kind of response.

[Cain]

The other thing to consider is this: how stupid would it be for the American government to come out and confirm that Islamic State is really very Muslim and stuff?  Reaffirming enemy propaganda is not a very smart thing to do, which makes me question why the author suggests it.

[Demolition Squid]

This is an interesting story. Most likely it will come to nothing now but:

People who have been stripped of benefits could be charged by the government for trying to appeal against the decision to an independent judge.

Earlier this week figures showed that in the past year nearly 900,000 people have had their benefits stopped, the highest figure for any 12-month period since jobseeker's allowance was introduced in 1996. In recent months, however, 58% of those who wanted to overturn DWP sanction decisions in independent tribunals have been successful. Before 2010, the success rate of appeals was 20% or less.

This follows massive outcry against the slashes to legal aid - used by poor people to be able to afford representation in court and legal advice in general.

I can just imagine Ian Duncan Smith looking at the results of his changes, enjoying the 900,000 statistic and then trying to decide how best to get that appeal rate down. Hitting them in the wallet makes a lot of sense in that strategy.

Assuming you don't mind that the death rate is likely to raise from an estimate of 'dozens to hundreds' to 'thousands'. And why would you care? It isn't like the poor are people.

[Karapac]

I'll be sure to digest what you said properly, and research deeper, you've given me a good starting point.

RE:Demolition Squid: That's just terrifying.

[MMIX]

There's something about fairies. Apparently they speread like fungus. This is not the first infestation I have come across.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-30687171

'Fairy control' to halt tiny doors in Somerset woods 4 March 2015

Wayford Woods, Somerset
"Fairy control" has had to be brought in at a woods in Somerset to curb the "profusion of elfin construction".

[LMNO]

In today's political circus news, Glenn Beck accuses Grover Norquist of being in the Muslim Brotherhood; NRA announces investigation.

[Cain]

Norquist has been fighting an uphill battle to get Muslims more acceptable to Republicans since the 1990s.  His wife is Muslim and, as he points out, Muslims generally agree more with Republicans on social and fiscal issues.  After 9/11, it's been all but impossible to convince Republicans they have a ready made voting bloc.

There is some amusement though, in today's loonies eating yesterdays loonies for being too insufficiently committed to the Cause.

[LMNO]

Ah.  So it actually makes some sort of sense, somewhat. 

[Cain]

Oh yeah.  Norquist has been banging on for years that Republicans should stop being such big meanies to Muslims.

Obviously, this makes him a Muslim sleeper agent.  Like Obama, or that guy from Homeland.

[LMNO]

This morning's Krugman was guest-posted by someone else, and it was the first I heard about what's going on in Hungary. 

I'm not sure I completely follow, but it appears the constitution says that a two-thirds vote is needed for most major policy changes, and the ruling party has had that majority for about five years, just losing it slightly in the last election.

While usually this would be good news, in forcing the ruling party to work with other coalitions to get things done, there's evidence they're now working with a far-right neo-fascist party in order to get laws passed.

Not sure what's going on here, but it sure smells bad.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/hungary-without-two-thirds/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body#more-38285

[Cain]

Hungary's been going badly for some time now.  Working with Jobbik is pretty much exactly what I would expect of Viktor Orban and his band of merry lunatics.

And guess who else Orban idolises?  Only Vladimir Putin.

[LMNO]

Fan-tas-tic.

And it looks like the Roma are still being treated like the Other.