Principia Discordia

Principia Discordia => Aneristic Illusions => Topic started by: Cain on July 15, 2016, 09:14:13 PM

Title: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 15, 2016, 09:14:13 PM
Lots of weird shit being reported on Twitter and, in the last few minutes, the BBC
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 15, 2016, 09:18:48 PM
https://twitter.com/mawilner/status/754046260085161986
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: MMIX on July 15, 2016, 09:20:26 PM
So not a full coup; just a cou?
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 15, 2016, 09:38:35 PM
Hard to say.  Right now, the PM is saying it's a mutiny by Gulenists, but the AKP blames Gulenists for everything, so that doesn't mean much.  That the Turkish PM was free to make that comment however, is interesting in its own right.

There are reports of clashes around the civilian intelligence HQ in Ankara.  Tanks have been deployed at Ankara airport.  Troops are blocking bridges into Istanbul and have been deployed in the streets of Istanbul and Ankara.  It's not clear in any of these cases where these are pro-government or pro-coup forces.

Reuters has also just reported a comment from the Turkish military that it is now in control of Turkey. https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/754049975483588612
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 10:08:59 PM
Just heard a quote from the PM along the lines of "Government still in charge, nothing to worry about". Not particularly confidence inspiring and empirical evidence points the other way somewhat. I'd be pretty fucking worried if this shit was going on under my reign.

Changes the perspective on curtains people's comments regarding the country over the past few weeks. Looks relatively well planned with the bridge blockades etc. but early information is always somewhat lacking.

Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: The Good Reverend Roger on July 15, 2016, 10:28:13 PM
Just heard reports that Erdogan bailed out of the country.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 10:46:01 PM
He's been on TV, on a phone via skype asking people to get on the streets.

Looking more and more like full blown coup, streets apparently fairly quiet.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 10:59:10 PM
From Reuters/BBC details sounds fairly well planned. Only gone for state broadcaster, ignored private companies. Nationwide so not a few guys gone wild.

Rough times ahead there either way but can't see much wrong so far, erdogan is a bit of a prick to say the least so it will hopefully be a positive change if the rhetoric from he coup side comes good.

Wasn't there a guy here in turkey? Ratatosk or something?
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 11:05:34 PM
Scratch that, explosion reported.

What a fucking week.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 11:33:25 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 15, 2016, 10:28:13 PM
Just heard reports that Erdogan bailed out of the country.

Apparently was "already out of the country on holiday". Gunfire at various government buildings reported.

Possession being 9/10ths of the law and all that, they may just have a quick win here.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: The Good Reverend Roger on July 15, 2016, 11:34:07 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 10:59:10 PM
From Reuters/BBC details sounds fairly well planned. Only gone for state broadcaster, ignored private companies. Nationwide so not a few guys gone wild.

Rough times ahead there either way but can't see much wrong so far, erdogan is a bit of a prick to say the least so it will hopefully be a positive change if the rhetoric from he coup side comes good.

Wasn't there a guy here in turkey? Ratatosk or something?

Ratatosk and Purple Eris.

And there has been sporadic, scattered fighting.  More like scores being settled.  SO FAR, no word of civilian casualties.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: The Good Reverend Roger on July 15, 2016, 11:34:47 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 11:33:25 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 15, 2016, 10:28:13 PM
Just heard reports that Erdogan bailed out of the country.

Apparently was "already out of the country on holiday". Gunfire at various government buildings reported.

Possession being 9/10ths of the law and all that, they may just have a quick win here.

The story changed from "got on a lear jet" to "was already gone."
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 11:35:04 PM
Just to remind self to shut up:

reuters, just literally a second after I wrote that:
QuoteMORE: Turkish military helicopters open fire at national intelligence HQ, two loud explosion heard in center of Ankara - Reuters witnesses
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Freeky on July 15, 2016, 11:36:07 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 10:59:10 PM
Wasn't there a guy here in turkey? Ratatosk or something?

That guy, Dodo something, was from Turkey.  The one that claimed to have some work as an english translator, and made lots of friends correcting Nigel or someone about the origins of an english saying.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 11:40:35 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 15, 2016, 11:34:07 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 15, 2016, 10:59:10 PM
From Reuters/BBC details sounds fairly well planned. Only gone for state broadcaster, ignored private companies. Nationwide so not a few guys gone wild.

Rough times ahead there either way but can't see much wrong so far, erdogan is a bit of a prick to say the least so it will hopefully be a positive change if the rhetoric from he coup side comes good.

Wasn't there a guy here in turkey? Ratatosk or something?

Ratatosk and Purple Eris.

And there has been sporadic, scattered fighting.  More like scores being settled.  SO FAR, no word of civilian casualties.

That's the concern for me though. One score settling leads to another leads to a full blown clusterfuck.

Story switch is interesting, need to keep an eye on that.

Not heard anything regarding an intention to return to the country any time soon. Where are the fashionable exile spots in the modern world? I assume south america's too touristy. Indonesia and surrounding regions?
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Lenin McCarthy on July 15, 2016, 11:54:23 PM
Read on Twitter that the Turkish Supreme Military Council (that decides on promotions etc.) is scheduled to meet in a few weeks. Perhaps Erdogan has been planning a major purging of Kemalist/secularist types from the army leadership and that those officers are trying to preempt it by staging a coup? Whatever way this will end (right now seems like coup is failing), it doesn't look good and won't bring any more democracy or stability.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 16, 2016, 12:54:15 AM
Short term, no. Longer term, can't see turkey improving under erdogan and he is not inclined (may be now though) to fuck off. Previous protests were not looked kindly upon.

Either way, it's moderately good that it's an internal thing by the looks of things. Anyone seen a Russian reaction yetk
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 16, 2016, 10:15:11 AM
And then there's 200 odd dead. Situation still all over show. Erdogan apparently back in country, 1500~ soldiers apparently surrendering/stood down. The only consistent point of agreement is "Shit's happening"
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 16, 2016, 12:54:38 PM
Just for fun, I thought "What will zerohedge make of this?"

QuoteMartial law was declared in the country, although few if any casualties were confirmed, despite constant media reports of clashes between the army and the protesters.

Followed by pictures liberally stolen and unaccredited from other media.

Rock solid reporting as always.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 16, 2016, 01:50:02 PM
It was interesting to see that the police were combating and arresting soldiers.

That's not often the case in coup situations, and suggests there was little, if any attempt to win over civilian power structures by the plotters.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 16, 2016, 04:37:55 PM
Latest bbc headline:
Quotecoup attempt
Nearly 3,000 soldiers are arrested and 2,700 judges fired in Turkey, after a coup attempt by a faction of the armed forces which left 161 people dead.

That's a lot of judges, surely? There's no way that can't lead to interesting times and corruption.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 16, 2016, 05:30:04 PM
Oh yeah, Erdogan is going to use this to clear house.  You saw how he used the Ergkenon trials to pursue his own personal vendettas and ensure the loyalty of the officer corps.  This is going to be that x10,000.

In all likelihood, what he does next will almost certainly help lay the seeds of the next coup against him.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 16, 2016, 06:28:03 PM
And no doubt a few lessons will be learnt from this so the chances of success are probably going to be better too.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 18, 2016, 12:17:08 PM
Reports of over 8K police dismissed, massive ongoing purge against secularists apparently.

Between that and the above judge dismissal, it's going to be fun times. I've tried to find a rough count of total judges and similar in Turkey and not had much luck. UK Stats indicate 19.5K serving magistrates in 2015. Assuming the judicial system in Turkey has similar numbers (Unlikey, 10M more people there than here) then it's still a massive percentage to lose. Replacing them with suitably qualified and experiened people will be practically impossible so it's going to be promotions all round to those favourable to the ongoing system.

I'm pretty sure that if I ever wanted an uprising against my regime that sacking this number of officials would be a very good way to set it up. To me, that then makes this either the prelude to a full coup or setting the scene for a future purge.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 18, 2016, 01:27:22 PM
Aftermath now ongoing.

Failed coup speculated to have been variously the work of Erdogan personally, others in government under and/or not under his instruction, Israel and/or JOOS, ISIS, USA, Russia and probably everyone else from Elvis to Ghandi.

France's foreign minister among those apparently pointing at Erdogan, for what that's worth.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 18, 2016, 04:42:11 PM
Yeah...I'm going to need to see some evidence before I buy that.

I can allow for a Let It Happen style of thing...a Brookings Institute scholar and expert on Turkey has been warning of a possible coup for a few months now.  Lets say top people in the AKP were informed, by reliable sources with actionable intelligence.  And they were aware that said coup didn't have the backing of the military leadership, or much of anyone else in Turkey.  So they let it play out, confident that the coup would be crushed and that it would give them political capital to purge those of suspect loyalties not only from the military but from all ranks within government service.

That I could maybe see.  And even then, I'd want evidence on that scenario.  A Turkish intelligence memo or similar, to the effect of suspected mutineers within the ranks.  Loyal military units put on high alert in the hours before the attempt.  That sort of thing.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 18, 2016, 06:26:33 PM
I could buy that to a degree as you'd need a substantial amount of time to compile THE LIST of those who you're not fond of, assuming it's not a document that's ongoing and updated daily.

That said, there's a hell of a risk in the "let it happen" stance. A few months is plenty of time to sway others to your cause and plan. I can't see any decent autocrat moving in such a manner as the potential for it to go horribly wrong for you is not easily ignored.

Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 19, 2016, 11:19:44 AM
Wiki leaks apparently releasing docs and related erdogan emails today. In land of fuck all signal and struggling to check
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: MMIX on July 19, 2016, 12:25:13 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 19, 2016, 11:19:44 AM
Wiki leaks apparently releasing docs and related erdogan emails today. In land of fuck all signal and struggling to check
https://www.rt.com/news/351995-wikileaks-attack-turkey-documents/
QuoteWikiLeaks reported suffering a "sustained attack" after it announced the upcoming release of hundreds of thousands of documents relating to Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the wake of a failed military coup.
Trends
Coup attempt in Turkey
"Our infrastructure is under sustained attack," WikiLeaks said on Twitter. "We are unsure of the true origin of the attack. The timing suggests a Turkish state power faction or its allies."

:eek: -no not really shocked
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on July 19, 2016, 01:37:41 PM
Do you have a source on that other than Russia Today?

I'm not saying it's not true.  However Russia Today has paid Assange's wages before now, and given asylum to Snowden, and Russia has a longstanding conflict with Turkey, and has a long history of politically distorted reporting.  We're not exactly talking neutral parties here.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: MMIX on July 19, 2016, 02:24:30 PM
Quote from: Cain on July 19, 2016, 01:37:41 PM
Do you have a source on that other than Russia Today?

I'm not saying it's not true.  However Russia Today has paid Assange's wages before now, and given asylum to Snowden, and Russia has a longstanding conflict with Turkey, and has a long history of politically distorted reporting.  We're not exactly talking neutral parties here.

Hmm, good point. I don't think I actually believe in neutral parties any more. And no I haven't seen that report anywhere else, well except Wikileaks twitter a/c, - but then it is too hot and I haven't  really look
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 19, 2016, 04:30:19 PM
15K+ teachers suspended in Turkey.

Education standards set for new record.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: MMIX on July 19, 2016, 04:44:54 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 19, 2016, 04:30:19 PM
15K+ teachers suspended in Turkey.

Education standards set for new record.

And it just keeps getting better
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 19, 2016, 06:30:56 PM
As an aside, is it just me or is rt becoming a much more used (and in some cases where I've been shown articles, apparently respected) source?

I'm specifically not talking about the article above, but ones on 'cloud over lhc means doom' , crop circles made by Obama aliens eat village' kind if shit.

It's strange, while I'm no great fan of the BBC I would not consider the two comparable.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: MMIX on July 19, 2016, 07:01:23 PM
I'm certainly coming across it more often.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Pæs on July 19, 2016, 09:23:46 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 18, 2016, 12:17:08 PM
I've tried to find a rough count of total judges and similar in Turkey and not had much luck. UK Stats indicate 19.5K serving magistrates in 2015. Assuming the judicial system in Turkey has similar numbers (Unlikey, 10M more people there than here) then it's still a massive percentage to lose. Replacing them with suitably qualified and experiened people will be practically impossible so it's going to be promotions all round to those favourable to the ongoing system.

http://www.unodc.org/pdf/crime/eighthsurvey/8sv.pdf
Not sure how accurate this or how it maps to the 19.5K serving magistrates in UK as it records UK as having 1,330 judges. Says Turkey has 6,041, which is a figure I've seen repeated elsewhere.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 19, 2016, 11:29:30 PM
Thanks, will get into that tomorrow and see if there's anything handy
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 20, 2016, 09:29:34 AM
BBC now reporting over 50K in purges. We all know how this goes so universities, deans, students and media no surprise.

Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 20, 2016, 12:51:46 PM
Now it's "travel restrictions for academics".

Memo to self to make some kind of game from this and eu shite
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 21, 2016, 10:47:39 AM
State of emergency now declared.

BBC summary of purge so far:

QuoteAlthough accurate details are difficult to come by, this is the current list:
7,500 soldiers have been detained, including 118 generals and admirals
8,000 police have been removed from their posts and 1,000 arrested
3,000 members of the judiciary, including 1,481 judges, have been suspended
15,200 education ministry officials have lost their jobs
21,000 private school teachers have had their licences revoked
1,577 university deans (faculty heads) have been asked to resign
1,500 finance ministry staff have been removed
492 clerics, preachers and religious teachers have been fired
393 social policy ministry staff have been dismissed
257 prime minister's office staff have been removed
100 intelligence officials have been suspended
The list may be incomplete because the situation is constantly changing. But it is clear that the purge has affected well over 58,000 people.

This would be impressive if it wasn't so fucking terrifying.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: MMIX on July 21, 2016, 12:43:37 PM
Its a damned good job that they can't get out of their bloody country, Smithers, otherwise we would be up to out elbows in illegal Turks along with all those other foreign Johnnies!
[/John Bullshit ]
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Junkenstein on July 25, 2016, 01:37:35 PM
Quote from: Pæs on July 19, 2016, 09:23:46 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on July 18, 2016, 12:17:08 PM
I've tried to find a rough count of total judges and similar in Turkey and not had much luck. UK Stats indicate 19.5K serving magistrates in 2015. Assuming the judicial system in Turkey has similar numbers (Unlikey, 10M more people there than here) then it's still a massive percentage to lose. Replacing them with suitably qualified and experiened people will be practically impossible so it's going to be promotions all round to those favourable to the ongoing system.

http://www.unodc.org/pdf/crime/eighthsurvey/8sv.pdf
Not sure how accurate this or how it maps to the 19.5K serving magistrates in UK as it records UK as having 1,330 judges. Says Turkey has 6,041, which is a figure I've seen repeated elsewhere.

I've been skimming this doc on and off for a few days. There's some interesting stuff in there but there's a few issues and errors too. For example the UK - England/Scotland/NI/wales individual listings don't always tally and the ones that do have scotland as the UK figure.

That said, for a quick general guide to the levels of Law enforcement and their makeup worldwide, it's pretty fucking handy. A little dated but no reason not to be OK as an informal guide. It's also quite amusing when you see blank or particularly low/high numbers in some instances and gives a fair indication to the state of a country in some regards. For example, no-one would really claim that Belarus is free from corruption, but having 2 recorded embezzelments in a year seems a touch low. Boliva slightly better with 4, which makes the UK seem like a pro with 18K+. Also see page 57 and laugh at the number of countries not listed.

US figures particularly notable by frequent absence. Irritating because that would be a very interesting breakdown in the per 100K list. Suspect figures will not be forthcoming anytime soon due to the consistent level of violence that US police use. Recent events would make me think there's going to be no rush to make any numbers public quickly, if ever. Where figures are listed it does not indicate the US to be substantially any safer than some countries which could be charitably described as "Hellholes".


Thanks Paes, I'll be having some fun with this later in the week.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on August 09, 2016, 08:47:00 PM
So Russia and Turkey have kissed and made up, in light of the coup attempt.

Erdogan is unofficially blaming NATO and America for the coup, and allowing those who officially blame them to speak freely.  The evidence thus far seems quite flimsy, though who knows for sure?

What is known is that Turkey had been planning to mend relations with Russia even before the coup itself.  Check out this Foreign Affairs article, and take note specifically of the date: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/12/turkeys-deep-state-has-a-secret-backchannel-to-assad/

For those of you wondering, it was mentioned way back in 2008 (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34207) that the covert "Ergenekon" movement was moving towards Russian "Eurasianist" figures around Alexander Dugin - which makes sense given both have a kind of mystical fascist orientation.  And of course, the two men named above were allegedly part of Ergenekon, and met with...Dugin.

If Russian rapproachment had been planned for months now, it raises questions about the coup to me.  Again, no evidence, but the coup not only allows Erdogan to clean shop, it gives him justification for dicking over NATO by palling around with Putin.  And the benefits go both ways - Russia commercially benefits from sanctions on Turkey being dropped, and the geopolitical benefits of bringing another NATO ally into his close orbit (Hungary is also suspiciously close to Russia on political issues), especially one where American nuclear missiles are located, are significant.

Maybe NATO did try and put a coup in motion, just because Erdogan is a git, or because they got wind of this rapidly developing relationship with Russia.  Maybe some Ergenekon types were included in the coup planning, only to betray the thing to Erdogan in the first place.  Or maybe Ergenekon's leaders let the deadbeats in their organisation have a shot at glory while selling them out, throwing them to the wolves (lol (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergenekon_(legendary_place))).  Or maybe Erdogan is the dupe in this scenario, and it was Russia and Ergenekon that organised the show.  Who can say?
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Doktor Howl on August 10, 2018, 09:10:29 PM
This is the only Turkey thread I could find, and it's probably not unrelated.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/if-turkey-implodes-heres-who-else-will-get-hurt/ar-BBLK0WB?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Cain on August 10, 2018, 09:40:26 PM
Turkey financially supports the rebels in Syria.

With Turkish money being worth less, now the rebel fighters have less, and Ankara is less inclined to spend their remaining currency on them.  This will ultimately make it easier for the Assad regime and its Russian backers to defeat them.

I'm not saying Trump is a puppet with Putin' hand up his arse, but it is amazing how he keeps doing these things which help Russia's foreign policy objectives.
Title: Re: Possible military coup in Turkey
Post by: Doktor Howl on August 10, 2018, 10:28:10 PM
Quote from: Cain on August 10, 2018, 09:40:26 PM
Turkey financially supports the rebels in Syria.

With Turkish money being worth less, now the rebel fighters have less, and Ankara is less inclined to spend their remaining currency on them.  This will ultimately make it easier for the Assad regime and its Russian backers to defeat them.

I'm not saying Trump is a puppet with Putin' hand up his arse, but it is amazing how he keeps doing these things which help Russia's foreign policy objectives.

Okay, because I AM saying that.