Open Bar: Arguments About Turtles, All the Way Down

[President Television]

Little Susie thinks the vomit-yellow and grave-mold-green particles floating amidst the deluge look almost magical in the dim light, against a backdrop of hissing downpour. She presses her little face to the window and stares intently at the mysterious motes dancing about, turning the rain to sloppy sludge as the specks infiltrated each drop. She stares until she perceives, in the lizard portion of her brain, a malevolent sentience in each tiny fleck. Until she can not turn away. Until she can no longer resist their piercing siren wail beyond the glass.

Little Susie flings open the window, letting in the rain. And the spores. Almost instantly she becomes coated in slime. And the spores waste no time getting to know their new food source. Seeping into her skin, the spores burrow. Deeper in, down into the meat and marrow of Little Susie. Burrow until they reached Little Susie's heart.

Now her pulse is in perfect sync with Tucson's. Now Little Susie is a part of something bigger. Older.

Little Susie smiles in the mirror. She smiles with her vomit-yellow lips until her grave-mold-green eyes spark with mirth.

Then she skips off to ask Mommy for permission to go play at a friend's house. Mommy will say yes.

Mommy will do anything Little Susie asks.

Or else.

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!   

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Little Susie thinks the vomit-yellow and grave-mold-green particles floating amidst the deluge look almost magical in the dim light, against a backdrop of hissing downpour. She presses her little face to the window and stares intently at the mysterious motes dancing about, turning the rain to sloppy sludge as the specks infiltrated each drop. She stares until she perceives, in the lizard portion of her brain, a malevolent sentience in each tiny fleck. Until she can not turn away. Until she can no longer resist their piercing siren wail beyond the glass.

Little Susie flings open the window, letting in the rain. And the spores. Almost instantly she becomes coated in slime. And the spores waste no time getting to know their new food source. Seeping into her skin, the spores burrow. Deeper in, down into the meat and marrow of Little Susie. Burrow until they reached Little Susie's heart.

Now her pulse is in perfect sync with Tucson's. Now Little Susie is a part of something bigger. Older.

Little Susie smiles in the mirror. She smiles with her vomit-yellow lips until her grave-mold-green eyes spark with mirth.

Then she skips off to ask Mommy for permission to go play at a friend's house. Mommy will say yes.

Mommy will do anything Little Susie asks.

Or else.

Wow.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Tonight, my boyfriend is going to see Neil DeGrasse Tyson, while I'm going to volunteer at an event at the Columbia Slough.   

[Q. G. Pennyworth]

CPD has all the holies!

I have tissues stuffed in my face to keep the brain juice off the carpet.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

CPD has all the holies!

I have tissues stuffed in my face to keep the brain juice off the carpet.

Ain't it AWESOME?   

[LMNO]

Tonight, my boyfriend is going to see Neil DeGrasse Tyson, while I'm going to volunteer at an event at the Columbia Slough.   

You might be on the higher moral trip?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

They have canned haggis on sale at the grocery store.

I bought a couple of cans, in case of nuclear attack.

[Cardinal Pizza Deliverance.]

They have canned haggis on sale at the grocery store.

I bought a couple of cans, in case of nuclear attack.

Save one for your work place's secret Santa, this year. Who wouldn't want a canned haggis in their stocking?

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Tonight, my boyfriend is going to see Neil DeGrasse Tyson, while I'm going to volunteer at an event at the Columbia Slough.   

You might be on the higher moral trip?

I couldn't get a ticket, his girl-on-the-side and her life partner had a spare someone had to bail on and they offered it to him.

I bet it's good seats, too. Plus they took him out to dinner first.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

They have canned haggis on sale at the grocery store.

I bought a couple of cans, in case of nuclear attack.

Save one for your work place's secret Santa, this year. Who wouldn't want a canned haggis in their stocking?

If they launch, I have maybe 35 minutes before all manner of shit falls on Tucson (Davis Monthan AFB/the boneyard makes this one of the most heavily targeted places on Earth).  I figure I can get the can open and eat the shit raw, and still have 20 minutes or so for it to fucking kill me before the bombs hit.

Fuck you, Putin.  Fuck you.

[Suu]

I've decided I need to make a new meme about how homophobes should be fascist, because the founders of democracy (Athens) and republicanism (Romans) allowed for open homosexuality.

BAN THE REPUBLIC, IT WAS FOUNDED BY THE GAYS

[LMNO]

This is a bit of a brain twister.

Suppose that 3% of the population has ADHD.

Suppose that of people with ADHD, 50% of them realize they have ADHD like symptoms and go to a psychiatrist to get checked out.

Suppose that of people without ADHD, 10% of them falsely believe they have ADHD and also go to a psychiatrist to get checked out.

The Conners Continuous Performance Test is a commonly used test that evaluates children for ADHD. It is found to have a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 73%. In theory our system is based on faith that a trained psychiatrist can do better than a neuropsychological test; in practice they probably do much worse. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say this is an excellent psychiatrist who outperforms the test handily and has both a sensitivity and specificity of 85%.

We can see that of every 100 people, 3 will have ADHD and 97 won't. 1.5 true patients and 9.7 false patients will show up for psychiatric evaluation. The psychiatrist will diagnose 1.275 true patients and 1.455 false patients with the condition, and prescribes stimulants according to the diagnosis.

So we have three things that, surprisingly, all happen at once:

1. We have an excellent psychiatrist who outperforms the tests and is right 85% of the time.
2. The majority of people who are on Ritalin, shouldn't be.
3. The majority of people who should be on Ritalin, aren't.

Number two sounds a lot like what we mean by "overdiagnosis", and number three sounds a lot like what we mean by "underdiagnosis". So even with a pretty good psychiatrist acting honestly, we expect ADHD to be both overdiagnosed and underdiagnosed at the same time.

[LMNO]

I think this is real...

http://mysocialsherpa.com/the-ultimate-retaliation-pranking-my-roommate-with-targeted-facebook-ads/

Pretty freaking cool.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I think this is real...

http://mysocialsherpa.com/the-ultimate-retaliation-pranking-my-roommate-with-targeted-facebook-ads/

Pretty freaking cool.

That was HILARIOUS!

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

This is a bit of a brain twister.

Suppose that 3% of the population has ADHD.

Suppose that of people with ADHD, 50% of them realize they have ADHD like symptoms and go to a psychiatrist to get checked out.

Suppose that of people without ADHD, 10% of them falsely believe they have ADHD and also go to a psychiatrist to get checked out.

The Conners Continuous Performance Test is a commonly used test that evaluates children for ADHD. It is found to have a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 73%. In theory our system is based on faith that a trained psychiatrist can do better than a neuropsychological test; in practice they probably do much worse. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say this is an excellent psychiatrist who outperforms the test handily and has both a sensitivity and specificity of 85%.

We can see that of every 100 people, 3 will have ADHD and 97 won't. 1.5 true patients and 9.7 false patients will show up for psychiatric evaluation. The psychiatrist will diagnose 1.275 true patients and 1.455 false patients with the condition, and prescribes stimulants according to the diagnosis.

So we have three things that, surprisingly, all happen at once:

1. We have an excellent psychiatrist who outperforms the tests and is right 85% of the time.
2. The majority of people who are on Ritalin, shouldn't be.
3. The majority of people who should be on Ritalin, aren't.

Number two sounds a lot like what we mean by "overdiagnosis", and number three sounds a lot like what we mean by "underdiagnosis". So even with a pretty good psychiatrist acting honestly, we expect ADHD to be both overdiagnosed and underdiagnosed at the same time.

Sounds about right.