OK, so this is odd

[Cain]

There's been lots of speculation lately that Kim Jong-Un is...well, no-one is quite sure what has happened to him.

He hasn't been seen in over a month now.  This has led to speculation that he's been overthrown in a coup or is deathly ill or something.  I've been ignoring that sort of thing up until now because if there is one thing I know about North Korea, it's that press reporting on its politics is usually hilariously wrong.  You have to remember, this is the same press that, half of the time, is convinced North Korea is a monolithic block under the direct totalitarian rule of its pudgy man-child leader.

But Kim was missing from an anniversary meeting of the Workers Party, which is something of a big deal.  A really big deal in fact.

It doesn't necessarily argue in favour of a coup or similar, because the normal indictations of a coup are not present.  High level delegations are being sent around the world still, which wouldn't be happening in a coup scenario (the chaos in North Korea would see many ambitious people looking to consolidate their position), and there hasn't been much in the way of unusual troop movements.

But something odd is going on.

[Faust]

Their wording on the press release was baffling as well.

Having a leg injury means he will not be having any public appearances for at least 100 days???

Why the overly specific timeframe, what kind of leg injury has you in complete seclusion for a chunk of the year?

His father was being photoshopped into images for a year before he was pronounced dead.

If it is a military coup, it looks like they are getting their strategic tactics from weekend at Bernies.

[Junkenstein]

But Kim was missing from an anniversary meeting of the Workers Party, which is something of a big deal.  A really big deal in fact.

For the ignorant, why is that such a big deal?


Playing the "What if" game, would a military coup be supported by China? They seem to have been expressing displeasure at various antics for a while now and I could buy the idea of someone just having enough one day and giving the nod. I'm thinking not a million miles away from what occurred with the US and Egypt not too long ago.

[Cain]

Yeah Faust, that's definitely another thing.  An obviously transparent lie like that really stands out.  There have been observations that the North Korean media is trying to diversify its coverage of the regime, and not rely on "all-Kim all the time" overexposure....a far cleverer lie would've been something which bolstered that observation, though since it would require a level of reflexive understanding of how the media reports on and views North Korea, it was always an unlikely option.

Junk, most observers believe that the military has the most to gain from NK's provocative, omnibelligerent and isolationist stance, and has effectively sidelined the Korean Workers Party, who are descended from the original KWP core who supported Kim Sung-il (which is why they are a big deal - ideological location of the state and important symbol of continuity and legitimate authority).  China, by contrast, has been supporting the Workers Party, in hope of opening up and liberalizing North Korea.  In any such scenario, China would be the favourite party to win bids for extensive mining rights...and North Korea is very rich in raw materials and minerals.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

SPECULATION TIME!

A. Kim Jong-Un died unexpectedly in an embarrassing fashion, and his handlers haven't figured out how to present it or to replace him.

B. Kim Jong-Un has become suddenly politically inconvenient to his handlers, and they're keeping him locked up, kinda like the Westboros did with their founder in his last weeks before he died.

[Cain]

As hilarious as number one sounds, at the moment number 2 may be more accurate.

One of the key pillars of his fathers rule was the Organization and Guidance Department of the Korean Workers' Party...essentially an unaccountable secret police force inside the party, with the power to put anyone they liked under surveillance (among other things).  The OGD was not successfully fully transferred to Kim Jong-Un before his father's death and Kim's own backers and loyal allies came with him, from Switzerland. And they tend to be around his age.  By contrast, the OGD are the elite of the elite when it comes to North Korean political infighting.

Chances are, there was a power struggle between the OGD and Kim's Switzerland posse, and the latter lost.  Badly.  OGD would ensure continuity of government through their institutional power, leaving Kim as a titular figurehead.

Kim may have also been injured in an otherwise bloodless palace coup by the OGD or a similar faction, thus necessitating his treatment before being put on the puppet strings and rolled out for public consumption.

[Junkenstein]

Thanks Cain, Appreciated.

Kim may have also been injured in an otherwise bloodless palace coup by the OGD or a similar faction, thus necessitating his treatment before being put on the puppet strings and rolled out for public consumption.

When you say bloodless, are you suggesting "no death" or "Literally, no blood spilt. Plenty dead". Is there an obvious successor at this point in the event of untimely demise? It's probably worth watching them closely. Well, as close as possible given the nature of the beast.

Will have to look into the OGD more, they sound like interesting chaps.

[Cain]

I mean "threat of violence, little to no actual violence, maybe a couple of people killed, max, to make a point".  By most coup standards, that is pretty bloodless.  And wouldn't require troops marching around seizing radio towers and whatever.  Though I suspect The Art of Coup D'etat is probably a banned text in NK.

[Junkenstein]

Ah, right the "Shoot the first mouthy one and get the rest in line" approach. I see.

I guess that is surprisingly bloodless given part of normal coup planning seems to include "Dig a big pit".

And while it may be a banned text, I would put money I don't have on it being very easily accessible, once you reach a certain position.

[minuspace]

SPECULATION TIME!

A. Kim Jong-Un died unexpectedly in an embarrassing fashion, and his handlers haven't figured out how to present it or to replace him.

B. Kim Jong-Un has become suddenly politically inconvenient to his handlers, and they're keeping him locked up, kinda like the Westboros did with their founder in his last weeks before he died.

C. K-J went skiing with his Swiss friends and broke his femur.  It was close to a growth plate, and the wheelchair, though temporary, is not the kind of accessory he can rock to the press.

[Telarus]

My roommate noted the diplomatic trip of the next 3 senior people in the workers party to SK, while the NK & SK navies shoot at each other. B thinks it has something to do with the uncle (and family?) that they had executed (who was managing much of the business ties to China, apparently) suddenly breaking the cooperation won between the military and the OGD. Good stuff Cain, thanks.

[Junkenstein]

Kim apparently not dead, has been wheeled out for cameras and photo ops.

Walking with a stick, so Occam's razor points at gout for me.

[LMNO]

What's weird is that gout can be treated and maintained very easily with Colchicine and Allopurinol.  I mean, I have gout, and I go out to the GAY BAR almost every weekend.

[Junkenstein]

I'd suggest that the level of medical care accessible to you is probably superior to that available to Kim.

Probably. It sounds amusing enough to be plausible.

I suppose the other angle is borderline Orwell.

"Dear leader will not be seen for 100 days" has to be followed by the chap wandering around within the next week to ensure a healthy level of compliance to the current truth. Anyone who has any kind of problem or notices something's a bit off is obviously a dissident.