Some pratt called Craig Thompson went and used his union card for prostitues. (http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/power-fail/timeline-tracking-the-craig-thomson-affair/20110819303)
Parliment loses him, we lose Labor in favour of Tony 'Climate change is crap' Abbot. The only independent supporting the Libs would have to switch to Labor to stop this and he's made it look pretty damn unlikely.
As I understand it, basically, if we called an election tomorrow, there would be a Liberal Victory, and the Carbon Tax would die.
Australia is becoming a model for democracies everywhere (Belgium too): tight races between ideologically dogmatic parties and a highly partisan electorate, with third party sympathies deciding who ultimately wins and turning the game into "court the insiders", leading to ineffectual government, a confused press and a demoralized voting public.
I'm expecting to see almost exactly the same thing in the UK in 2015 (assuming the government does not fall before then). Everyone hates all the organized major parties, who offer no real solutions, so the government will be chosen according to who fucks up the closest to election time, or enough to alter the balance of power in a closely contested Parliament.