Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

[Junkenstein]

Further escalation:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27862849

Ukraine says Russia has cut off all gas supplies to Kiev, in a major escalation of a dispute between the two nations.

"Gas supplies to Ukraine have been reduced to zero," Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuri Prodan said.

Russia's state-owned gas giant Gazprom said Ukraine had to pay upfront for its gas supplies, after Kiev failed to settle its huge debt.

Gazprom had sought from Kiev $1.95bn (£1.15bn) - out of $4.5bn it says it is owed - by 06:00 GMT.

The Russian firm said it would continue to supply gas to Europe.

Gazprom ended its discount price for Ukraine, which was negotiated by former President Viktor Yanukovych last December, in April.

Before the discount was cancelled, Ukraine's gas bill was heavily reduced by Russia to $268 per 1,000 cubic metres.

The price is now $485.50 per 1,000 cubic metres, the highest in Europe.

Almost 15% of gas used in Europe comes from Russia via Ukraine, which is why EU members are taking a particularly close interest in the stand-off, observers say.

The talks that ended on Monday had been brokered by EU representatives.

Heading into the negotiations, Kiev said it was ready to make the $1.95bn payment if Russia cut its price to $326 per 1,000 cubic metres.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin said $385 per 1,000 cubic metres was his final offer.

I'm assuming the final price agreed will be closer to the $400 mark than the $300 mark. I'd also guess that this will lead to a variety of bad times in the near future until this is settled.

I assume Russia would be quite happy to take something else as payment. I wonder what it will be?

[UB]

Cant find a direct link - best bet is invitation via Hamm/Billy Graham Ministries, who are close to Pastor Turchynov, and also present.

So, by most accord, under the guise of those least expected?

Maybe the participants are unaware and could only know by hindsight?

[Cain]

Welcome to Donetsk!

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Welcome to Donetsk!

That's terrifying.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Welcome to Donetsk!

That's terrifying.

I just kinda spooed.

[Junkenstein]

Well, shit:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28105117

Ukrainian forces have launched a full-scale military operation against pro-Russia separatists in the east, hours after a ceasefire ended.

Rebel bases and strongholds were under attack from aircraft and artillery, government officials said.

The 10-day ceasefire ended on Monday evening, with President Petro Poroshenko saying "criminal elements" had thwarted the chance for peace.

Western leaders and Russia had urged him to prolong the truce.

Ukraine's parliament speaker Oleksander Turchynov told MPs on Tuesday: "I can inform you that in the morning the active phase of the anti-terrorist operation was renewed.

"Our armed forces are carrying out strikes on terrorist bases and checkpoints."

President Poroshenko went on television on Monday night saying: "We will attack, we will free our land."

So, I guess Donetsk and Luhansk are around the value of Ukraine's gas bill? It seems all but inevitable that these regions will end up under Russian control/jurisdiction, so I would guess that the smart thing to do is negotiate the best possible price for them.

Or, you know, Civil war. Good options abound.

[Junkenstein]

A pro-Russian rebel leader in eastern Ukraine has said his forces do not possess the Buk missile thought to have downed Malaysia airlines flight MH17.

Alexander Borodai, prime minister of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), described evidence that showed otherwise as "fake".

However, in a separate interview a rebel military commander said he was aware rebel fighters had the weapon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28457737

Well that clears everything up nicely. I could still go either way on the culprit.

[Junkenstein]

And YET MORE:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28476153

The US says it has evidence that Russia has fired artillery across the border targeting Ukrainian military positions.

Russia also intends "to deliver heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers" to pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, the state department said.

More propaganda at 11.

[Junkenstein]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28934213

A group of Russian soldiers captured in eastern Ukraine crossed the border "by accident", Russian military sources are quoted as saying.

Ukraine said 10 paratroopers were captured, and has released video interviews of some of the men.

Total accident, I'm sure.

This map is interesting too:


The Crimea now seems to be Russia, which while inevitable in many ways I would have thought it would have gained more international attention. I suppose that's quite unlikely now with everyone shitting themselves about ISIS. Remember kids, when brown people grab land, it's bad. When white people do it, it's for our own good. When white people grab land from other white people, the white person with the biggest army is correct.

[Cain]

I think it has a hell of a lot more to do with Russia having nuclear weapons and considerable energy reserves than the colour of their skin.

There's also a hell of a difference between an established, if not always friendly or "free" state exercising a claim with some claim to popular will which goes against international legal and political norms than there is an insurgent group with a penchant for sectarian ultraviolence carving out a new state in a previously religiously plural area and proceeding to kill almost everyone who doesn't live up to their standards.

[Junkenstein]

Fair point. I suppose contrasting it with ISIS shenanigans isn't particularly helpful in this regard. It just surprised me somewhat about how quickly the Crimea issue has disappeared. The easy out of skin colour was the first thought but you're probably much more on the money.

[Cain]

Well, what can be done about it?  Really?  A decent majority of the population want to be there, the Ukrainians are in no position to press the issue and we're not going to stick our necks out for a bunch of yokels in Kiev - especially when it could, even if only in the worst case scenario, end in nuclear war.

No-one especially likes it, except certain hot-headed Russian nationalists and Putin flunkies, but there are no credible paths leading away from the existing status quo.

[Junkenstein]

That's moving into a separate area somewhat. The news is fairly unpalatable and there is little, if anything that can be done, so what to do? Ignore it, it seems, would be the way forward.

While hardly new, there does appear to be an attitude of avoiding discussions because there's no obviously positive solution. I can't help but think it's going to leave such places considerably worse off in the long term because there's no real attention to the downward slide.

I'm assuming conditions are worsening, though that said I can't find anything recent that would indicate either way. I suppose it's feasible that life is now cookies and sunshine for those in the Crimea but I somehow doubt it.

[Telarus]

http://rt.com/news/182720-ukraine-parliament-dissove-twitter/

And then he goes and speaks with Putin for 10 hours with no staff present. 

[tyrannosaurus vex]

Being completely uneducated on the topic of Ukraine, it would seem to me that Putin has a few reasons for this whole sideshow with Crimea. Obviously the new government in Kiev isn't as friendly to Russia as Putin would like, and the chances that Ukraine tries to get into NATO in the near future are now higher. Putin doesn't like that idea very much, but probably isn't going to go all the way to complete invade and conquer mode over it. Russia is probably more concerned with Crimea for its importance to the Russian navy, so that mostly explains the annexation there. And now with the Russian forces' incursion into Ukrainian territory (flying the flag of Novorossiya no less), they're probably securing a land bridge between Russia and Crimea, and getting all the ugly military and border-drawing business out of the way before ultimately settling down and accepting Ukraine's more pro-Western position. It certainly isn't hurting Putin domestically, and it isn't like the UK or the US are going to start bombing Russian troops over it, so it's more or less safe - a lot safer than it would be to try all this with a member of NATO, anyway.

Ultimately a piece of Ukraine is worth a lot less than military and political stability between Europe, the US, and Russia. So as usual the West will wave their hands and stomp their feet and depending on how long this drags on for, might even send a moderately disapproving letter to Moscow, but nothing else will come of it. I expect all this talk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine to die out, at least in American media, by the end of the year if not a lot sooner. Unless some fool NATO member goes and gets itself involved in a conflict, in which case we might have to kick them out of NATO to avoid making good on the alliance.