Cain called it. Greece defaults.

[Doktor Howl]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-markets-edgy-greek-imf-payment-looms-32118010

Whoopsie.

[Cain]

BRB buying ouzo.

Now I'm waiting for the banks to refuse service, leading to businesses shutting down and food shortages and riots.  Then the glorious Greek colonels will march in and restore order...or something.

[Doktor Howl]

BRB buying ouzo.

Now I'm waiting for the banks to refuse service, leading to businesses shutting down and food shortages and riots.  Then the glorious Greek colonels will march in and restore order...or something.

Everyone marching in step is order.  Of a sort.

[Faust]

The military is still really popular in Greece so that could easily happen, could even happen without a coup. We rang my relatives yesterday and they aren't too concerned. They are a bit out of it in Crete and have farms to be self sustaining, they cant afford to keep their cars running but they're not going to starve.

They are worried about Athens though, and when the rioting starts the police are going to be right along side people in a looting free-for-all.

[Demolition Squid]

Its okay guys, there's an indiegogo campaign now so it'll all be sorted by next week.

[Cain]

The military is still really popular in Greece so that could easily happen, could even happen without a coup. We rang my relatives yesterday and they aren't too concerned. They are a bit out of it in Crete and have farms to be self sustaining, they cant afford to keep their cars running but they're not going to starve.

They are worried about Athens though, and when the rioting starts the police are going to be right along side people in a looting free-for-all.

Yeah.  Greece has a lot of classic precursors for a coup as well...even though the literature on that is lacking.  There was also that attempted coup-lite or whatever a couple of years back, where a bunch of Greek generals were suddenly and with no warning made to spend more time with their families.

Plus the military is, based on what I can see, about the best funded arm of the state.  Hell, while the Greek government were cutting spending everywhere else, part of their EU bailout clause required using the money to purchase German and French arms systems, and Greece spends 2.4% of its GDP on its defence annually - double that of most European states, above that of the UK and 0.4% more than what is required by NATO.

Speaking of which, I suspect NATO would support a coup and the EU or elements thereof may be playing along.  Greece's leaders are awfully cozy with Russia, and I know if I was a Greek leader in dire straits I might look to use relations with Russia to counterbalance the EU.  In return, if I was an NSC staffer reporting to the American President, I'd be backing a coup to prevent that scenario.

[Faust]

The Russians have been making the same offer to Greece as they have been for the last few decades: A military base on the mainland and a radar station in Crete.

Both of these contravene several conventions Greece a part of, but at this point I don't think Greece would care, if not take an active glee from.

[Cain]

Russia can also supply Greece with the oil it pretty desperately needs.  My understanding was that Greece previously had arrangements with Iran regarding the black gold, but the most recent set of sanctions made that impossible to continue.

It would be a significant strategic coup for Moscow...yet another reason we shouldn't be playing this dumbarse game with the Greek government.  If at the start of this whole mess we'd just written off the debt, it would've cost us less than it has now...and that's not including the political and possibly international tensions we're talking about here.  Just in strict monetary terms.

[Demolition Squid]

But Cain, Greek farmers bought nice cars! Morally, we don't have any choice but to burn the whole country to the ground, salt the fields, sacrifice the firstborn of every family and leave the smouldering remains as a testament to those who would dare offend The Market.

[Cain]

I will laugh on the day Russian economists convince the west its in its own interest to cut its own throat.

[Junkenstein]

Are we really sure we can't cost effectively outsource the cutting of our own throat?



I'm pretty sure the procedure now is to debate for 4 years then give money to Capita.

[Reginald Ret]

Russia can also supply Greece with the oil it pretty desperately needs.  My understanding was that Greece previously had arrangements with Iran regarding the black gold, but the most recent set of sanctions made that impossible to continue.

It would be a significant strategic coup for Moscow...yet another reason we shouldn't be playing this dumbarse game with the Greek government.  If at the start of this whole mess we'd just written off the debt, it would've cost us less than it has now...and that's not including the political and possibly international tensions we're talking about here.  Just in strict monetary terms.

If we (by which I assume you mean the EU) are not the ones profiting, then who is?
Whoever it is, I don't like them.

[Demolition Squid]

The people who profit from Greece being forced to pay back the loans are the people who leant Greece the money. The latest figures I could find break it down like this:

€2.4 bn - Foreign Banks
€4.3 bn - Bank of Greece
€10.5 bn - Assorted Creditors (hedge funds etc)
€11 bn - Assorted Greek Banks
€20 bn - European Central Bank
€25 bn - Spain
€32 bn - IMF
€34 bn - Assorted Eurozone Nations
€37 bn - Italy
€42 bn - France
€48.8 bn - Miscellaneous Investors
€56 bn - Germany

€323 bn total (In 2012 the debt was €360 bn so... hooray, progress!)

Note: Many of these countries/investors benefit doubly because the money Greece borrowed from them was then spent on goods and services from them - like the military spending Cain pointed out.

[Reginald Ret]

Oh cool!
Thanks for that, it explains quite a bit.

Now the second question is: who benefits if Greece defaults?

I imagine the Greek people would.

[Doktor Howl]

Oh cool!
Thanks for that, it explains quite a bit.

Now the second question is: who benefits if Greece defaults?

I imagine the Greek people would.

You imagine incorrectly.  VERY incorrectly.