Open Bar: Arguments About Turtles, All the Way Down

[Cain]

Once I understood that damnable breast cancer example on Less Wrong, things like that became much easier to grasp.  Not saying I'm intuitively Bayesian in my thinking, only that it's a useful reminder to sometimes expand ones categories in thinking about a problem ie; overall population vs population diagnosed with ADHD versus population with ADHD.  Because once you think about it like that, over and underdiagnosis doesn't seem like a logical contradiction at all.

I'm slightly annoyed, as I'm waiting for about 4 different jobs to get back to me, and have been for about 5 weeks now.  In particular, one job is government and two are NGO-related, and I know I'm still being considered for them, but come on now.

[LMNO]

They're trying to decrypt your FB posts for messages to ISIL.

[Cain]

Given I haven't been on my main facebook account since June, I wish them the best of luck in that.

[Cain]

Bleh.  I'm essentially arguing in favour of a full, boots on the ground, invasion of Iraq and Syria, I've realised.

Proposition 1): ISIS must be dealt with.  Because they're genocidal, sectarian lunatics who aint gonna stop.  Militarily, they don't really pose a risk to the UK or USA, but they're gonna keep on doing what they do best until someone bigger and meaner than them makes them stop.

Proposition 2) Airforce is useless against insurgents.  Sure, ISIS will abandon their frontlines once the bombing starts in earnest...and retreat right back into the major population centres.  What now?  You're going to start indiscriminatly bombing Mosul in the hope you'll kill some ISIS fighters?  Yeah, that seems smart.  Arab civilian populations love watching Americans bomb mosques.

Proposition 3) No-one else can be trusted to do it.  The Iraqi Army turned tail and ran.  The Peshmerga are brave...but bravery don't make up for logistics or experience.  Or resources, for that matter.  Saudi Arabia and Turkey...hahahaha no.  Assad?  Urgh, I'd probably puke just thinking about having to shake his hand.  Iran?  Sure, lets make this sectarian conflict even worse.  The Syrian rebels?  They're basically a subsidiary of Al-Qaeda at this point.

Proposition 4) Counter-terrorism is best conducted via intelligence, special forces and "clear-and-hold" operations by regular ground troops.  ie; an invasion.

It'd probably mean a lot of people dying, any invasion.  Which I really don't like.  But would it deal with ISIS?  Maybe...which is more than be said for the current strategy, I guess.

Of course, whether it would deal with the aftermath of a successful campaign, in which Syrian rebels/Assad, the Kurds, the Iraqi government, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia are all scrabbling for advantage...well, that's far more questionable.

[LMNO]

Well, fuck.

Depressingly accurate synopsis, Cain.

[Cain]

Of course, Obama's plan is to use ISIS as a causus belli to overthrow Assad, but nevertheless, the plan wont work.  The Syrian rebels are currently scrambling to sign truces with ISIS to fight Assad (which should be a clue) and if Assad does fall...well, who are the most powerful group in that region after Assad, again?  Clue: ISIS are currently expanding their territory around Aleppo, while the FSA are struggling to stay alive.

[Freeky]

Who loves clean

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EVERYBODY!

Freeky,
Laundry day.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Of course, Obama's plan is to use ISIS as a causus belli to overthrow Assad, but nevertheless, the plan wont work.  The Syrian rebels are currently scrambling to sign truces with ISIS to fight Assad (which should be a clue) and if Assad does fall...well, who are the most powerful group in that region after Assad, again?  Clue: ISIS are currently expanding their territory around Aleppo, while the FSA are struggling to stay alive.

My hypothesis is that if they're left alone, they'll be cutting each other's throats inside of 180 days.

Or they'll fuck with the Turks and/or Jordanians, which seems to be the unbeatable level in that particular game.

[minuspace]

Last night I went on a test run for my club.  Found a specimen immediately.  Like uncanny.  Had not even turned on my head-lamp yet and I could "feel" something right in front of me.  Not the exact member I wanted, but it's closest relative.  Too bad I'm not Haitian.  Very excited for tonight.  Catch and release, strictly up to highest herp standards. 

[Eater of Clowns]

Why's everyone get all offended when they find out that I hate them?

I hate 7 billion people. Get over yourself; you aren't that special.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Why's everyone get all offended when they find out that I hate them?

I hate 7 billion people. Get over yourself; you aren't that special.

I am the main character.  Some walk-on villain parks illegally and gives me  red-ass, I'm gonna get offended.  This is a direct violation of my contract.

[Eater of Clowns]

Why's everyone get all offended when they find out that I hate them?

I hate 7 billion people. Get over yourself; you aren't that special.

I am the main character.  Some walk-on villain parks illegally and gives me  red-ass, I'm gonna get offended.  This is a direct violation of my contract.

If they didn't want it parked on they shouldn't have a put a curb there. That hatchback defied space. It fit three grown men over six feet tall and fit into a spot intended for shopping carts. It gave one of the construction workers vertigo because he thought he was viewing it from a mile up. I never even sold that hatchback - I lost it, like a set of car keys.

[Eater of Clowns]

My hating a person is like the perfect attendance award for the human race.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Why's everyone get all offended when they find out that I hate them?

I hate 7 billion people. Get over yourself; you aren't that special.

I am the main character.  Some walk-on villain parks illegally and gives me  red-ass, I'm gonna get offended.  This is a direct violation of my contract.

If they didn't want it parked on they shouldn't have a put a curb there. That hatchback defied space. It fit three grown men over six feet tall and fit into a spot intended for shopping carts. It gave one of the construction workers vertigo because he thought he was viewing it from a mile up. I never even sold that hatchback - I lost it, like a set of car keys.

I still don't believe you're really over 6' tall.  It is an optical illusion of some kind, or perhaps you are just very tall for your height.

[Eater of Clowns]

Why's everyone get all offended when they find out that I hate them?

I hate 7 billion people. Get over yourself; you aren't that special.

I am the main character.  Some walk-on villain parks illegally and gives me  red-ass, I'm gonna get offended.  This is a direct violation of my contract.

If they didn't want it parked on they shouldn't have a put a curb there. That hatchback defied space. It fit three grown men over six feet tall and fit into a spot intended for shopping carts. It gave one of the construction workers vertigo because he thought he was viewing it from a mile up. I never even sold that hatchback - I lost it, like a set of car keys.

I still don't believe you're really over 6' tall.  It is an optical illusion of some kind, or perhaps you are just very tall for your height.

Feels like a bit of a waste walking around with all that height all the time. I store most of it up in my teeth and just use it as I need to.