Author Topic: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.  (Read 66074 times)

The Good Reverend Roger

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1560 on: January 14, 2017, 10:39:22 pm »
I actually wouldn't be half surprised if it was your own guys.  If I wanted to create the perception Russia was fucking with the US, to build political and public support for more aggressive cyber-operations against them, this is what I'd do.

But it could also be the Russians fucking with you, a non-state actor or even dumb technical/human error, though very coincidental if so.

I don't know how much weight this carries, but a friend of mine seems to be about one step removed from Assange. He's pretty adamant that the hacks came from the CIA. Obviously I don't know, but this guy doesn't seem to have a reason to lie about what he's been told. Of course, whether he's been lied to is another matter.

I guess I'm just throwing more speculation into the pot of Who Fucking Knows.

Not even.  Assange was so blatantly in the tank for Trump, it's gotta be the Russians.

As you all try to piece this mess together, let's not forget the history of how Assange came to be known. He started off with the stated purpose of acting against the U.S. and other western nations that kept state secrets. He has a history of releasing information that's directly harmful to the U.S. and its interests. Let's also remember that Russia has a long and documented history of using cyber attacks and disinformation to directly interfere in governments with interests counter to theirs. Lastly, there is still the need/call to apply Occam's Razor to the world of international intelligence operations.

I've personally had too long of an involvement with the intelligence community to be able to, trusted to, or desire to comment much further on this.

I also remember that he left his two principal sources out swinging in the wind.

Based on that alone, I always assume the worst about him.
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1561 on: January 16, 2017, 03:19:51 am »
I actually wouldn't be half surprised if it was your own guys.  If I wanted to create the perception Russia was fucking with the US, to build political and public support for more aggressive cyber-operations against them, this is what I'd do.

But it could also be the Russians fucking with you, a non-state actor or even dumb technical/human error, though very coincidental if so.

I don't know how much weight this carries, but a friend of mine seems to be about one step removed from Assange. He's pretty adamant that the hacks came from the CIA. Obviously I don't know, but this guy doesn't seem to have a reason to lie about what he's been told. Of course, whether he's been lied to is another matter.

I guess I'm just throwing more speculation into the pot of Who Fucking Knows.

You mean DNC/Podesta hacks?  Forensic evidence links them to APT28 which, if it isn't a GRU cyberwarfare outfit, is certainly willing to act like one.  I don't see why the CIA would be hacking NATO emails and Ukrainian artillery.

Yeah, thems'd be the ones. I'll openly admit that I know jack shit about any of this.

I probably should start educating myself a bit more.
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1562 on: January 16, 2017, 03:40:02 am »
Crowdstrike report on the DNC hack, as well as articles by Thomas Rid are what I recommend to start out.

The evidence isnt 100% conclusive, attribution is of course very hard with cyberespionage.  But the circumstansial evidence is very compelling, and when considered alongside other factors, very hard to ignore.  The only other state that could carry out operations of this level of sophistication is China, and while Chinese cyberespionage is concerning, Chinese attitudes towards international norms are far closer to America and Europe than they are to Russia and thus it doesn't fit their pattern of behaviour.

Assange himself, for what it is worth, has admitted the DNC and Podesta files may have come from Russia, only that he did not recieve them from Russia (and of course, he would not.  Russia would employ half a dozen cut-outs to obscure the origin of the data).

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1563 on: January 26, 2017, 10:14:44 pm »
Meanwhile, in Russia...

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ap-top-manager-at-russian-cybersecurity-firm-arrested-in-moscow-2017-1?r=US&IR=T

Quote
A key cybercrime investigator at Russia's biggest cybersecurity firm, Kaspersky, was arrested on charges of treason last month, Russia's Kommersant newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Kaspersky Lab confirmed to the Associated Press that Ruslan Stoyanov, head of its computer incidents investigations unit, was arrested in December.

Stoyanov was arrested along with a senior Russian FSB intelligence officer, Sergei Mikhailov, according to Kommersant. Mikhailov, who also faces treason charges, was the deputy head of the information security department of the FSB, Russia's national security service.

Lots of people suspect that Mikhailov may have been informing the Americans about Russian hacking efforts

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1564 on: January 30, 2017, 06:38:04 pm »
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2017/01/20/culturejam/

This article compares a trump and chavez populism. I thought it was a pretty interesting dissection of what to do when you're now the enemy...

Quote
The problem is tribal. Your challenge is to prove that you belong in the same tribe as them: that you are American in exactly the same way they are.

That sort of thing...

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1565 on: February 01, 2017, 09:26:53 pm »
Pelosi has decided declaring that she is for capital is the best way to resist Trump in the current political climate

 :lulz:

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1566 on: February 01, 2017, 09:58:30 pm »
Pelosi has decided declaring that she is for capital is the best way to resist Trump in the current political climate

 :lulz:

"we are capitalists.  But, yes, capitalists are scum."

 :lulz: :lulz:
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1567 on: February 02, 2017, 02:42:33 am »
So, moderates?

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1568 on: February 13, 2017, 09:56:44 pm »
The whole Trump wall thing constantly reminds me of the south park episode where all the Mexicans in America said fuck this place and scrambled across the border back into Mexico and the border patrol was confused as fuck and then tried to stop them anyway.

Aside from being hilarious, that episode may have been a bit prophetic.  I am mildly tempted to learn Spanish and try to make it to Mexico before there really IS a wall keeping me in.
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1569 on: February 14, 2017, 12:55:12 am »
The whole Trump wall thing constantly reminds me of the south park episode where all the Mexicans in America said fuck this place and scrambled across the border back into Mexico and the border patrol was confused as fuck and then tried to stop them anyway.

Aside from being hilarious, that episode may have been a bit prophetic.  I am mildly tempted to learn Spanish and try to make it to Mexico before there really IS a wall keeping me in.

I have two friends who've beat that path already.
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1570 on: February 14, 2017, 02:41:59 pm »
The whole Trump wall thing constantly reminds me of the south park episode where all the Mexicans in America said fuck this place and scrambled across the border back into Mexico and the border patrol was confused as fuck and then tried to stop them anyway.

Aside from being hilarious, that episode may have been a bit prophetic.  I am mildly tempted to learn Spanish and try to make it to Mexico before there really IS a wall keeping me in.

I've had the same exact thoughts.
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1571 on: March 16, 2017, 04:48:38 pm »
1) Yes, I know this is from Vox.
http://www.vox.com/world/2017/3/13/14698812/bernie-trump-corbyn-left-wing-populism

2) TL;DR - Studies suggest that existant social welfare programs lead portions of the population towards nationalism once their basic subsistence needs are met, and that proposed social welfare programs fail when the proposed recipients are non-homogenius.

3) TTL;DR - The term "populism" is being used as a cover for racism, in the same way as "states rights" is.

4) TTTL;DR - Bernie would never have won, because racism.

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1572 on: March 17, 2017, 03:30:53 am »
1) Yes, I know this is from Vox.
http://www.vox.com/world/2017/3/13/14698812/bernie-trump-corbyn-left-wing-populism

2) TL;DR - Studies suggest that existant social welfare programs lead portions of the population towards nationalism once their basic subsistence needs are met, and that proposed social welfare programs fail when the proposed recipients are non-homogenius.

3) TTL;DR - The term "populism" is being used as a cover for racism, in the same way as "states rights" is.

4) TTTL;DR - Bernie would never have won, because racism.

The article is right, there are no easy answers. I have no way to divine what the outcome would have been if it had been BS vs DT, but judging by how easy it was for the BernieBros to jump head first into the Kekite bullshit, I have serious doubts that we'd be looking at any result other than the one we got anyway. The truth is that the radical right swelled up to monstrous proportions over nothing more than the fact that they resented the whole country "answering to" a Black man.

I think presenting them with the "inevitability" of following that up with a Woman may have been a force multiplier that triggered their "first a negro and now a broad?!" response, but that question is irrelevant for two reasons. First, their resistance was already at such a fever pitch that those 61,000,000 people were already dead set on voting against whoever represented the Democrats; and Second, I'd rather not "win" an election by acquiescing to the secondary sexist demands of a bunch of primarily racist fucks anyway.

As for welfare programs, who knows (I mean besides the people who did actual science on the subject). Based on the way I see people behaving and what they say on the shittier comment threads, it almost seems like even if they receive their welfare assistance, they actually resent it if they see it as coming from a black president. It upsets their ideas about how the world is supposed to work, or something. It isn't all welfare recipients, but the tragedy is that if welfare is going to motivate anyone politically, chances are it will motivate them in a racist direction. Plenty of virtuous, non-racist people were content -- which is the problem, politically speaking. It's a lot easier to get fired up over something or someone you hate than about something or someone that's more or less doing their job.

America has always had this schizophrenic self identity, and we can only put off this fight coming to a head for so long no matter what we do.
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The Good Reverend Roger

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1573 on: March 17, 2017, 07:44:59 am »

America has always had this schizophrenic self identity, and we can only put off this fight coming to a head for so long no matter what we do.

This is accurate, unless you are implying that there will be sort of resolution.  Which isn't necessarily so...and is, in fact, very doubtful.  One hideous possibility - and the one that history proposes - is that this tacky shit is the new normal.  Whomever attains power spends all their time trying to erase his/her predecessors, and boasting about what a great leader he/she is.  Meanwhile, nothing gets done, constitutional rules are not enforced (as all sides and the media just pretend nothing happened), and pretty soon the only stable thing that exists is the military.

Ho ho ho.
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- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

 "Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #1574 on: March 17, 2017, 10:18:56 am »
Yes. Its the end of Empire. Just consult your history books :(
If the answer is Donald J Trump then it must have been a fucking stupid question.
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