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Started by Thurnez Isa, December 29, 2006, 04:11:55 PM

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Cain

Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

Fallenkezef

Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PM
Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

The thing is, England doesn't really matter too much.

When the general election kicks off it's all about Scotland. It's a foregone conclusion that Labour will win, which is good for the country as Starmer is more Blairite centrist. It's how much they win.

Back in the day, Labour relied heavily on the Scottish vote. The SNP turning Scotland into a one party state hurt them badly. However now there is a chance that the whole "vote for independence and ignore how shit we are at running a nation" bullshit has been exposed and the Scottish folks will go back to voting Labour in order to fuck the tories.
Engage the enemy more closely

Scribbly

Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PM
Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

From a trans perspective, with Duffield etc and the comments he's made on the latest EHRC guidance about changing the meaning of legal gender, it feels as though he's made the calculation that supporting trans people is a red line for more people than throwing trans people under the bus is.

The truth is that most people don't care too much about us either way. But the ones who hate us definitely consider support a dealbreaker, where the ones who support us ... generally care about other things more. "Sure I don't like his trans stuff but we can't let the Tories get in."

Just on a pure realpolitik level he's probably correct about that.

Everything else, with Mandelson back in the tent, really feels like a return to "Who else are they going to vote for?" Signal to business and people who consider themselves sensible moderates that they aren't at any risk of having the status quo challenged and the broader left will fall into line. I don't know if that's actually true any more though. I think there's a good chance people who feel betrayed by Starmer just vote Green instead, splitting the vote and giving the Tories a narrow path to maintain power.

The neoliberal and authoritarian policies being put forward really seem to be the true ideological core of Starmerism and the Labour Right.

Either way, it's looking bleak. Long term I don't see any political project which has an actual answer to the real structural challenges we're facing. The increasing levels of deprivation and suffering can only go on so long before there's some kind of backlash. If Starmer gets in as the 'legitimate alternative' and still fails to address anything (and... I don't think he's capable of addressing anything within the ideological limitations he has adopted) we're going to be heading down a very dangerous road.
I had an existential crisis and all I got was this stupid gender.

Scribbly

Quote from: Fallenkezef on May 06, 2023, 09:42:32 AM
Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PM
Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

The thing is, England doesn't really matter too much.

When the general election kicks off it's all about Scotland. It's a foregone conclusion that Labour will win, which is good for the country as Starmer is more Blairite centrist. It's how much they win.

Back in the day, Labour relied heavily on the Scottish vote. The SNP turning Scotland into a one party state hurt them badly. However now there is a chance that the whole "vote for independence and ignore how shit we are at running a nation" bullshit has been exposed and the Scottish folks will go back to voting Labour in order to fuck the tories.

Go fuck yourself.
I had an existential crisis and all I got was this stupid gender.

Fallenkezef

Quote from: Scribbly on May 06, 2023, 10:28:43 AM
Quote from: Fallenkezef on May 06, 2023, 09:42:32 AM
Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PM
Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

The thing is, England doesn't really matter too much.

When the general election kicks off it's all about Scotland. It's a foregone conclusion that Labour will win, which is good for the country as Starmer is more Blairite centrist. It's how much they win.

Back in the day, Labour relied heavily on the Scottish vote. The SNP turning Scotland into a one party state hurt them badly. However now there is a chance that the whole "vote for independence and ignore how shit we are at running a nation" bullshit has been exposed and the Scottish folks will go back to voting Labour in order to fuck the tories.

Go fuck yourself.

That's nice dear
Engage the enemy more closely

Cain

Quote from: Fallenkezef on May 06, 2023, 09:42:32 AM
Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PM
Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

The thing is, England doesn't really matter too much.

When the general election kicks off it's all about Scotland. It's a foregone conclusion that Labour will win, which is good for the country as Starmer is more Blairite centrist. It's how much they win.

Back in the day, Labour relied heavily on the Scottish vote. The SNP turning Scotland into a one party state hurt them badly. However now there is a chance that the whole "vote for independence and ignore how shit we are at running a nation" bullshit has been exposed and the Scottish folks will go back to voting Labour in order to fuck the tories.

:bacon:

Cain

Quote from: Scribbly on May 06, 2023, 10:23:46 AM
Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PM
Quote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.

Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.



One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.

My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.

It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).

When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.

It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.

So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.

But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.

From a trans perspective, with Duffield etc and the comments he's made on the latest EHRC guidance about changing the meaning of legal gender, it feels as though he's made the calculation that supporting trans people is a red line for more people than throwing trans people under the bus is.

The truth is that most people don't care too much about us either way. But the ones who hate us definitely consider support a dealbreaker, where the ones who support us ... generally care about other things more. "Sure I don't like his trans stuff but we can't let the Tories get in."

Just on a pure realpolitik level he's probably correct about that.

Everything else, with Mandelson back in the tent, really feels like a return to "Who else are they going to vote for?" Signal to business and people who consider themselves sensible moderates that they aren't at any risk of having the status quo challenged and the broader left will fall into line. I don't know if that's actually true any more though. I think there's a good chance people who feel betrayed by Starmer just vote Green instead, splitting the vote and giving the Tories a narrow path to maintain power.

The neoliberal and authoritarian policies being put forward really seem to be the true ideological core of Starmerism and the Labour Right.

Either way, it's looking bleak. Long term I don't see any political project which has an actual answer to the real structural challenges we're facing. The increasing levels of deprivation and suffering can only go on so long before there's some kind of backlash. If Starmer gets in as the 'legitimate alternative' and still fails to address anything (and... I don't think he's capable of addressing anything within the ideological limitations he has adopted) we're going to be heading down a very dangerous road.

Yeah, it doesn't look good from any angle, really.

The only vaguely interesting thing Labour has going for it are its green policies, and I fully believe given who is involved that Labour will immediately capitulate on those key planks in those policies the moment industry leans on them.

So we'll be up shit creek, sans paddle, and the vicious backlash to Starmer (who will inevitably be labelled "woke", or whatever the verbiage updates to, despite everything) will ensure the next gang of Tories are even worse. Given we've already outlawed peaceful protest, as today is so expertly demonstrating, the only areas they can start moving into do not inspire confidence.

I have no immediate plans, but I intend to move back to Australia in the next few years. I'd recommend others look towards Ireland, whose path to citizenship is fairly straightforward for British citizens, and British nationals can freely work and travel there right now without visas.

Scribbly

In other Normal Island news I just saw a news segment titled "Police arrest volunteers giving out rape alarms in fear of coronation disruption."

:horrormirth:
I had an existential crisis and all I got was this stupid gender.

Faust

It's even worse knowing Andrew was skulking around at this
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Brother Mythos

Neighbors Solve Mysterious NJ Pasta Dump Case

When first reading about this, I immediately thought the Pastafarians, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster itself, might be responsible. But, the local mayor has come forward and claimed otherwise.

Here's the link:  https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/mystery-of-who-dumped-huge-mounds-of-pasta-next-to-a-stream-in-a-nj-town-is-solved/4305212/

It's unfortunate the MSM didn't bother to further investigate this strange occurrence.

Cain

Quote from: Scribbly on May 08, 2023, 09:21:59 AM
In other Normal Island news I just saw a news segment titled "Police arrest volunteers giving out rape alarms in fear of coronation disruption."

:horrormirth:

Volunteers who work for the local council, in partnership with the police.

And the police justified it on the basis of having "actionable intelligence", only to be called out by a journalist who was present at the arrests, and so they deleted their tweet.

chaotic neutral observer

Quote from: Brother Mythos on May 08, 2023, 11:29:08 AM
When first reading about this, I immediately thought the Pastafarians, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster itself, might be responsible.

Wow, that's rough.  You must have felt so stupid when you discovered it was just some prepper's discarded stockpile.
Desine fata deum flecti sperare precando.

Brother Mythos

Possible meteorite crashes into New Jersey home, no injuries

Some unusual stuff is happening in New Jersey these days. After the "Pasta Dump Case," I can't help but wonder about the possibility of the Flying Spaghetti Monster being involved in this incident too. After all, it does fly, and it probably drops stuff once in a while.

Here's the link: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/meteorite-crashes-new-jersey-home-injuries-99205925

chaotic neutral observer

Quote from: Brother Mythos on May 11, 2023, 10:27:05 AM
Possible meteorite crashes into New Jersey home, no injuries

Some unusual stuff is happening in New Jersey these days. After the "Pasta Dump Case," I can't help but wonder about the possibility of the Flying Spaghetti Monster being involved in this incident too. After all, it does fly, and it probably drops stuff once in a while.


If you had drawn the obvious meteorite / meatball analogy, that might have had more narrative cohesion.
Desine fata deum flecti sperare precando.

Brother Mythos

In Turkey, a modern city sits alongside a mythical site

This travel article caught my attention, as it was our very own Goddess Eris who rolled The Apple of Discord into Zeus's banquet hall, and pulled the first link in the chain of events that jerked started the Trojan War.

Some readers of this article may be surprised that C. Brian Rose said, "... and discuss diplomatic and military relations with the Mycenaean Greeks. There are even references to Atreus (Agamemnon's father), Paris...."

It is my understanding that this belief about Atreus and Paris originated with Emil Forrer, a translator of the Hittite cuneiform tablets found at Bogazköy. This belief is not universally accepted, nor is the belief that the Bronze Age Trojans were Mycenaean Greeks. Interestingly, both of these beliefs have been refuted by James D. Muhly, a respected scholar, who has been published in the Penn Museum's very own Expedition magazine.

In any case, Çanakkale does sound like a great place to stay for anyone wanting to visit Troy. But, surprisingly for a travel article, no serious mention is made about how best to get there. However, the town does have its own airport, and connections can been made from major airports in Turkey and Greece. And, car ferries from major ports in Turkey and Greece can take you there.   

Here's the link:    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/canakkale-troy-turkey/index.html