I've come to some sort of conclusiony idea about all this

[Triple Zero]

1) The Popsci Predictions Exchange uses a stock exchange format for betting on predictions, and is highly successful when compared to any unilateral prediction by any author.  Google it.

interesting, i did. unfortunately the server seemed to be in the process of breaking down just as i went there
http://ppx.popsci.com/
this place, right?

ok it's back online, where do i see the accuracy of total predictions based on the moment they were made?
(as opposed to the moment when they appear in some successfull guy's portfolio, because that way you're reading pure survivorship bias == noise with no predictive value).

2)The "what if" game is not relevant.  I may mention works in progress but we're talking about the current direction of technology's role in society. 

but, what direction? apart from a general vague notion of "forward" *, i don't see technology (just like evolution) moving in any particular direction.

* explicitly not "better", "more efficient" or "faster"

3) You're really rude to just assume I have no idea what I'm talking about when you say I don't know what the field of AI has accomplished.  I don't know half of it, but I do make an effort, thanks.  You're just making appeals to authority because you're known here as a technology specialist.

i'm really sorry felix, it wasn't my intention to be rude. it might have been a rough couple of days caused by a rough couple of weeks caused by a rough couple of years that made me just a littlebit cranky yesterday.

i don't wanna be the authority technology specialist here (though it's a nice feeling that people take my word at face-value, i would rather have a bunch of others argue me about it). i just happen to know computer programming, study something closely related to artificial intelligence (no matter the fact that my research has been at a complete standstill for over a year or so), and been coding little AI and AL applications since i was 12 or so
to counter that, i know hardly anything about computer hardware, robots, fixing cars or fluid dynamics. (but i do make an effort, except for fixing cars, by lack of drivers license :-P )

and with that apology, i'll split the rest of my reply into a different thread, because i'd like to keep the subject in this one about the feasibility of predictions of social impact of future technology

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I'm not sure I follow either POV here.  I've been working under a few assumptions with this sub - forum that seem functional so far.

1.  This is brainstorming.  Not every idea will be finished.
2.  Arguements will not be lost nor won.  Good luck even getting them acknowledged.
3.  If an idea you've thrown out is left unadressed, there is nothing the hive mind has to add.

Your results may vary.

The only thing I'm getting at is that it's hard for me to respond meaningfully to certain types of presentation, and one of them is "No, you're wrong because (insert unrelated brainstorming). The first part makes it hard for me to respond to the second part. This is just something I'm throwing out there, in the interest of communication and blah blah etc.

And I sort of find it hard to respond to that.  Instead of explaining what you meant you're just repeating yourself.  Try again.

Then don't respond to it. I assume you understand my point, because I have rephrased it in terms a retard could understand, and you have not said "I do not understand." Therefore you either understand and don't care, or you understand, care, and do not wish to respond.

[Jasper]

I could if you'd just cut out that attitude like you don't even want to communicate.  Fuck, Nigel.  What am I supposed to say?  I understand where you're coming from with it all, but I'm just not getting through to you.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

ORLY?

[Triple Zero]

BE NICE!!!!

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

And if you can't be nice, don't just act pissy at each other... FIGHT! I mean the audience draw for Golden Showers isn't nearly as large as the audience for WWF.

[Jasper]

BE NICE!!!!

You know, I once heard that the word nice actually used to mean dumb.  Serious.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?search=nice&searchmode=none

[Triple Zero]

it's also a city on the coast of France that holds the european headquarters of the W3C.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

 

I'm not actually being pissy, just not sure what I'm supposed to say to make my suggestion any more clear. It seemd like I had simplified it to the point that it could not be simplified any further.

I thought you might want to know that making a distinction between disagreeing with something someone says and the introduction of unrelated lines of thought would make your writing more clear and easier to respond to.

Example:

Sue says to Sally, "Green shoes are the best!"

Sally: "No way, purple shoes are better! I went for a walk yesterday and there was a field of lavender, and it was a prime habitat for butterflies and moths."

Sue: "WTF does that have to do with the color of shoes??? You are a complete freak, goodbye."

If Sally had made some sort of transition that indicated that she was moving on to a new thought, it might go something like this:

Sue: "Green shoes are the best!"

Sally: "No way, purple shoes are better! Oh, that reminds me, I went for a walk yesterday and there was a field of lavender, and it was a prime habitat for butterflies and moths."

Sue: "How neat! I wonder what other sorts of small wildlife lavender fields are habitat to?"

[Jasper]

Your observations are noted.

[B_M_W]

butterflies and moths

Thats what I saw when I read your post.

[Nast]

(lol sry threadjack)

[Jasper]

Nah, this thread was over a page ago.  Take it away.

[Triple Zero]

gosh i wonder what else ... habitats .. moss lavender butterflies?

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I like moths!