Black Swan 101

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

It seems to me that the primary basis of the Black Swan is rests largely on indeterminism.  We can't know everything, ergo we can't be sure of anything.  I'd be interested to know how free will (or lack thereof) fits into the model.

Well, Free Will could be included in the model, but I think that immaterial. The premise rests, I think, on the inability of any human to grok all of the variables on any given topic. So, while free will may be a variable, so too is "Earthquake in Columbus Ohio"... Free Will might make it on to the model, but since the probability of an earthquake in Columbus appears very low based on historical trends, it may not make it on to the model. Thus when the fault line under my house goes for a walk, lots of people will get a surprise and their models will crumble.

Occam's Razor can't shave a Black Swan.

[PeregrineBF]

Indeterminism/free will:
The Free Will Theorem
Reply to Comments of Bassi, Ghirardi, and Tumulka on the Free Will Theorem
On Adler's "Conway-Kochen Twin Argument"
I suggest reading at least the first one, it's not hard to understand and is quite interesting.

[Dr. Pataphoros, SpD]

It seems to me that the primary basis of the Black Swan is rests largely on indeterminism.  We can't know everything, ergo we can't be sure of anything.  I'd be interested to know how free will (or lack thereof) fits into the model.

Well, Free Will could be included in the model, but I think that immaterial.

Not immaterial at all.  If free will exists then so does the Black Swan, because that means that people can and will make choices independent of past events or influences and there is no way for us to predict them.  If free will doesn't exist then we are all a bunch of squishy robots making choices consistent with our (incredibly complex) programming, which is based solely on past events and influences.  If that is the case, then given enough computing power we eventually could know how someone will react to a given situation by analyzing every last bit of data available about a person and deciding what they will do in that circumstance.  Likewise we could analyze the data present in the physical environment and be able to accurately determine future events that account for the environment and the people acting within that environment.

The turkey metaphor, and other similar "proofs" don't work, because the outcome is knowable and predictable in advance to everyone except the turkey.  Just because the turkey is ignorant does not mean it is impossible to know what will happen next.  With some deduction and reasoning a human in the turkey's place will likely figure things out sooner or later.  To say that we cannot possibly know every variable is likewise misleading, since we don't need to know every last variable, just the ones most likely to have an impact.  Even then we don't usually need all of those to make a reasonably accurate prediction. 

After all is said and done, whether the prediction turned out to be innacurate is likewise unimportant.  We MUST look toward the future and attempt to discern what is ahead so that we can plan for eventualities.  If, during that process, we get excited about the possibilities we see on the horizon then that will only serve to stimulate and motivate us towards that outcome.  If a scientist predicts we'll be immortal by 20XX he's probably not making that supposition without at least a significant amount of the variables in question either known or narrowed down to a certain managable degree.

So, in the end, I find the concept of the Black Swan to be ultimately unhelpful, except in the case where a scientific singularity does occur.  If that happens all bets will be off anyhow.  At least, that's my prediction.

[hooplala]

There are two types of Black Swan, the narrated and the truly unexpected.  The narrated Black Swan is an overrated and hyped rare event, the true Black Swan is not talked about.

Sorry to pop in here without having read the rest of the thread yet... but I find the above quote very interesting.

What would be an example of a narrated Black Swan event, and a true Black Swan event?

[Dr. Pataphoros, SpD]

There are two types of Black Swan, the narrated and the truly unexpected.  The narrated Black Swan is an overrated and hyped rare event, the true Black Swan is not talked about.

Sorry to pop in here without having read the rest of the thread yet... but I find the above quote very interesting.

What would be an example of a narrated Black Swan event, and a true Black Swan event?

As far as I can determine:
Narrated = Bird Flu/SARS/Mad Cow/West Nile (pick one) will kill us all! 
True = Aliens come from space and abduct George W. in the final days of his presidency and make him President of the Galaxy.

[hooplala]

There are two types of Black Swan, the narrated and the truly unexpected.  The narrated Black Swan is an overrated and hyped rare event, the true Black Swan is not talked about.

Sorry to pop in here without having read the rest of the thread yet... but I find the above quote very interesting.

What would be an example of a narrated Black Swan event, and a true Black Swan event?

As far as I can determine:
Narrated = Bird Flu/SARS/Mad Cow/West Nile (pick one) will kill us all! 
True = Aliens come from space and abduct George W. in the final days of his presidency and make him President of the Galaxy.

I've been predicting that last one for close to nine years, so it can hardly count...

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

It seems to me that the primary basis of the Black Swan is rests largely on indeterminism.  We can't know everything, ergo we can't be sure of anything.  I'd be interested to know how free will (or lack thereof) fits into the model.

Well, Free Will could be included in the model, but I think that immaterial.

Not immaterial at all.  If free will exists then so does the Black Swan, because that means that people can and will make choices independent of past events or influences and there is no way for us to predict them. 

Well it would certainly indicate a higher likelihood that humans might be directly responsible for sombunal Black Swans.

If free will doesn't exist then we are all a bunch of squishy robots making choices consistent with our (incredibly complex) programming, which is based solely on past events and influences.  If that is the case, then given enough computing power we eventually could know how someone will react to a given situation by analyzing every last bit of data available about a person and deciding what they will do in that circumstance.  Likewise we could analyze the data present in the physical environment and be able to accurately determine future events that account for the environment and the people acting within that environment.

Well, this is where I think most Black Swans come from anyway... people get confused between the map: "We know how someone will react" "we can analyze the data and determine future events" and the territory: "What actually happens". It's the bits of the territory that aren't on the map which give rise to Black Swans, I think maybe.

The turkey metaphor, and other similar "proofs" don't work, because the outcome is knowable and predictable in advance to everyone except the turkey.  Just because the turkey is ignorant does not mean it is impossible to know what will happen next.  With some deduction and reasoning a human in the turkey's place will likely figure things out sooner or later.  To say that we cannot possibly know every variable is likewise misleading, since we don't need to know every last variable, just the ones most likely to have an impact.  Even then we don't usually need all of those to make a reasonably accurate prediction. 

I disagree... a Human, in the turkey's position seems unlikely to figure out that he's lunch... unless he can speak to his captors and they tell him. If we take a baby, keep it for its entire life in a 30 x 30 barn, feed it well and care for it... I think it highly unlikely that it will say to itself "I think I'ma gonna be dinner!!! OSHI!" I think it far more likely that it will be very surprised when someone comes in with an axe.

[Cain]

There are two types of Black Swan, the narrated and the truly unexpected.  The narrated Black Swan is an overrated and hyped rare event, the true Black Swan is not talked about.

Sorry to pop in here without having read the rest of the thread yet... but I find the above quote very interesting.

What would be an example of a narrated Black Swan event, and a true Black Swan event?

As far as I can determine:
Narrated = Bird Flu/SARS/Mad Cow/West Nile (pick one) will kill us all! 
True = Aliens come from space and abduct George W. in the final days of his presidency and make him President of the Galaxy.

Basically yes.  Its when really, really unlikely threats are hyped.  Like your examples, pretty much!

[hooplala]

2012?


Srsly though, this is very interesting, and I may have to go pick up this book (and the one 000 mentioned) very soon.

[Cain]

Ratatosk, Taleb calls the difference between the map and the territory the Platonic gap, and outright states "this is where Black Swans happen".  Its the difference between nice, conceptual, clearly dinlineated ideas about reality and messy reality itself.

So yes, pretty much.  He just has a nicer term for it.

[Cain]

2012?


Srsly though, this is very interesting, and I may have to go pick up this book (and the one 000 mentioned) very soon.

Possibly, although its only hyped in fringe circles.  Terrorism, serial killers or shark attacks, would be better ones.

[hooplala]

What about things like violence in video games and television?  Or is that too broad?

[Cain]

What about things like violence in video games and television?  Or is that too broad?

Far too broad.  They're not even supposedly unexpected events.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Ratatosk, Taleb calls the difference between the map and the territory the Platonic gap, and outright states "this is where Black Swans happen".  Its the difference between nice, conceptual, clearly dinlineated ideas about reality and messy reality itself.

So yes, pretty much.  He just has a nicer term for it.

Ah, very good... as the gap between the Platonic forms and the reality... nice!

[hooplala]

What about things like violence in video games and television?  Or is that too broad?

Far too broad.  They're not even supposedly unexpected events.

Gotcha.