An Age of Strife

[Cramulus]

fox news

[Cain]

http://mihd.net/jwd40f9

6 MB.

Global trends for the next 20 years, according to the British military.  Highlights include:


The US is likely to sustain its international leadership until at least 2020, after which a more multipolar world will challenge its hegemonic status, with China, Russia, India, Brazil and Indonesia and a host of alternative, possibly rival polities weakening its grip on certain regions and the international system. US strategic power will also be progressively diluted by its integration within an increasingly globalized economy and the need to address large budgetary imbalances and deficits.

Brazil's emergence as a major economic power based on continued democratic institutions, a diverse economy and vast potential as a food and bio-fuel exporter, will alter the balance of power in the Americas, along with a progressive reduction of dependence on the US by South American countries. Brazil's economic development is likely to be a catalyst for similar progress by other South American states, particularly Argentina and Chile, although such development throughout the region may be complicated by a resurgent populism which will have substantial appeal to the 25% of the population of Latin America which live on less than $2 a day.

India will dominate South Asia, but will face challenges of its own, including its chaotic infrastructure, extensive rural poverty, a widespread yet under reported HIV/AIDS epidemic and its relationship with a poor, nuclear-armed Pakistan, and also, emerging Iran. The relationship between India and Pakistan is likely to deteriorate rapidly if a radical Islamist government comes to power in Pakistan or if the country spirals out of control. Furthermore, the persistence of caste mentalities, the exploitation of the benefits of globalization and growth by the upper and middle classes and the persistence of Hindu/Muslim extremism suggest that India's future progress may be slowed to some degree by political and societal instability, and possibly conflict. The inability of India's state education system to generate a sufficiently well educated work force to man its
expanding technical services industry may also stall its economic growth. India's democratic institutions and Anglophone culture will however give it advantages for participation in the global economy, although, by 2035, the growth of Asian economies will have created a more Asian and less Anglo-centric identity for globalization.

US Decouples from Europe. A shift in the US strategic focus towards Asia, as well as a changing balance of power in the Americas, based on Brazil's economic growth, may result in a significant reduction in its engagement with Europe and challenge the viability of NATO as the dominant provider of European security and defence architecture.

Irregular Activity. In the absence of direct, open state-on-state conflict, there will be a marked increase in the prevalence of irregular activity. Most will demonstrate features associated with criminality, terrorism, disorder and insurgency, fuelled by nominal or actual grievance, deprivation and resentment, or simply in reaction to market forces or boredom. There will also be increased sponsorship of irregular activity and groups by states, seeking to utilize and exploit, through proxy, gaps in the international system, either to assert themselves or secure advantage without exposing themselves to state-on-state risks. Armed criminal, terrorist or insurgent groups, trained and experienced in conflicts and struggles around the world and knowing no other existence, will be part of the strategic landscape and will need to be identified and countered.

Soft Power. The ability to use and counter 'Soft power', centred on access to target audiences through projection of culture, investment, education, development and other non-coercive means will be of increasing significance to both state and non-state actors. It may enable more discriminating use of the military instrument of power.

Force Projection. In the face of political, human and financial risks of intervention, developed states may be increasingly reluctant to expend resources and manpower on failed states and ungoverned space. Significant forces are unlikely to be sent abroad for enduring operations without the consent of the local population and in the absence of an unequivocal international mandate or a credible national benefit. There is likely to be more emphasis on the active containment of aggressors, symptoms of crisis and irregular elements, to deter and defeat military threats to partners and the international system. In these circumstances, the ability to secure and maintain free access to areas of strategic and operational interest will remain vital.

[Cramulus]

Is that "soft power" bit referring to 5GW?

[Cain]

I doubt it.  Soft power is likely a facet of 5GW, but the concept has been around much longer and has wider applications.

[Cramulus]

meant to say facet of 5GW...
not previously familliar with the term "soft power", but reading up now. Interesting stuff.

[Jenne]

One thing that strikes me about the here and now is the prevalence of information--in all facets.  In fact, "soft power" is somewhat related to this--the influence, confluence, dissemination and persuasive intent of information.  When I studied political econ back in the 90's (HAVE to stop saying that), there was this notion of an informational revolution.  A technologial revolution had already taken place (and is still underway), and with it came the Age of Information.

Why does this strike me?  Well, obvious answer is that we now live in an age where information on anything is accessible anywhere.  That's a huge statement, and so is the idea that how that information is used is critical to the survival of everything on earth.  Everything.

The raw power that statement holds is so simple, it's a bit unbelievable, but that's also what makes it undeniable.  So those that harness that power, those that control that information, have more power than ever before.

So, instead of an Age of Strife (as humans, we are always in an age of strife...just some of us are on the bottom of the wheel, some on top), I see this as the Age of Information.  That is truly where it's at--how it is manipulated, sent out, kept secret...all of it.

Just my 2 farthings.

[Cain]

ICT - By the end of the period it is likely that the majority of the global population will find it difficult to 'turn the outside world off'. ICT is likely to be so pervasive that people are permanently connected to a network or two-way data stream with inherent challenges to civil liberties; being disconnected could be considered suspicious. There are a number of trends that will lead to this pervasiveness including: an expanding global economy, potentially far-reaching improvements in processing power, greater cultural assimilation and awareness of technology, and the continued convergence of information and communication technologies. In turn, ICT will itself be a major engine of growth for the global economy.

Cognitive Science - Routes to the direct application of advances in cognitive science are less clear than nanotechnology or biotechnology; however, indications are that interdisciplinary advances involving cognitive science are likely to enable us more effectively to map cognitive processes. Soft Artificial Intelligence is already well established with self diagnosing and self reconfiguring networks in use and self repairing networks likely in the next 10 years. Mapping of human brain functions and the replication of genuine intelligence is possible before 2035.

Sensor and Network Technology - Our reliance on networks and the complex nature of our environment, often with poorly understood properties, will increase. Higher bandwidth, greater processing power, larger datasets, smaller sensors and greater understanding of the dynamics of physical and virtual network behaviour will converge to allow new types of network connection. However, the growth of many networks is not and cannot be governed by top-down planning and occurs in a decentralized manner, often analogous to naturally occurring systems. There is therefore a need to understand network topology in order to improve effectiveness and reduce vulnerability; for example, disease can travel more readily through certain types of network with implications both for epidemiology and for the spread of viruses through the internet.

Information Explosion. Responding to the increased speed and volume of information will challenge effective decision-making progressively at all levels. Greater personal, corporate and military dependence on ICT and commercial interconnectedness and applications will create greater vulnerabilities and fragility, magnifying the impact of information denial, failure or manipulation. The Internet will cause continuing leakage and diffusion of sensitive and potentially dangerous information about weapons and disruptive technology. The truth will not always be based on objective analysis but on what 'is believed'.

Authenticity of Information. The information environment will become increasingly crowded and of variable authenticity, with a proliferation of chat rooms, weblogs and themed websites, which will attract growing numbers of Internet users, for example, the number of Internet hosts worldwide grew from 6.64 m in Jul 95 to 353.28 m in Jul 05. Information will increasingly be circulated
through, and processed and generated by, these and more advanced media, becoming progressively more difficult to source and validate.

Erosion of Civil Liberties. Technology will enable pervasive surveillance in response to terrorism, rising transnational crime and the growing capability of disparate groups or individuals to inflict catastrophic damage or disruption.  Coupled with intrusive, highly responsive and accessible data-bases, the emergence of a so-called 'surveillance society' will increasingly challenge assumptions about privacy, with corresponding impacts on civil liberties and human rights. These capabilities will be deployed by the private as well as the public sector.

Information Warfare. Many states are developing highly sophisticated information and cultural warfare capabilities and exploiting the pervasiveness and pliability of digital information to gain commercial or political advantage. In addition, the threat of opportunistic hacking and network manipulation will continue, but at an increasing rate and intensity as criminals move into fresh markets. Both will represent a significant threat to military ICT systems, which will require robust and comprehensive protection, fall-back options that do not depend on commercial bearers and unhindered access to exclusive space-based (or intra-atmospheric) platforms.

Encryption. Along with the increasing use of obscure languages and commercially available 'strong' encryption, enhanced software and more agile broadband applications may reduce the capacity of Western intelligence penetration and exploitation in cyber-space. In addition, if significant developments in quantum computing occur, sufficient encryption algorithms may be unlocked to provide strategic advantage to the discoverer.

[Jenne]

Yep yep--to all of it.  Saw it all going down before any of this internet surveillance shit hit the bigtime.

Thing is, you can't stop this from happening.  The Black Market just gets savvyer in response, though, ever notice that?  Technology allows for that--you just get rerouted or learn to circumvent.  For every virus, there's a patch!

Complete and total techno meltdown (the jizzy-shorts menu option of a lot of scifi writers) seems the only solution to the escalation.  But the other jizzy-shorts option could also be total and complete grace where we transcend this rock and become hyperspace monkeys.

[Ianna]

You can think of this thread as a child of Payne's opensource OMF discussion, or of Cram's thread about Discordia's relevance today. Or you can think of it as its own thread. It is a thread, that's for sure.

We are in a unique position in history, my friends.
We have something resembling a message, or at least an assortment of messages, and we are standing before what will certainly be a troubled time, and may well prove an era of rapid, violent change. If the world economy goes entirely pear-shaped, disillusionment and doubt will be widespread. It will be, to put it shortly, the kind of time when things change. It will in no certain terms be the Season of Aftermath.

The Great Depression gave birth to Fascism and Communism.
If we fuck this Meltdown hard enough, what crazy mutant child can it bring forth?

Interesting topic indeed! I agree that things are changing and that we might have a change to affect the course if we could just come up with something really clever.

The way I see it is that capitalism is coming to its end, because economy can not continue growing from here to eternity. Those who are interested in the theory can check up Immanuel Wallersteins writings. I believe he makes sense. This consumerist way of life can simply not continue to exist very long and it is highly interesting to speculate on what will happen after that. However, I doubt the new order of things will be any good for people. I am afraid that we are slowly slipping into this orwellian nightmare, you know, the scenario Cain already covered in his post. But the important question is what we live for? We should not have to exist FOR corporations or governments, they should exist only for us.

It is often said (at least in leftist propaganda) that changes arise from the masses and that we really could make a difference if we were united. That mass power is the only way. But how to build a strong resistance that could really affect the world in this situation where people are kept happy with reality tv, antidepressants and low-cost junk food? Would this kind of mass awareness be even desirable in your opinion? How do you, in fact, see discordianisms role in this process?

*By the Lulz and for the Lulz!*