Financial fuckery thread

[hirley0]

The actual presence of the gold wouldn't make a lick of difference unless, say, Germany's central bank decided it wanted to start using the gold for some practical, non-monetary purpose like making watches.

Also known as "the EU's financial crisis recovery plan".

&: + FB3m25P 5D/

[hirley0]

The actual presence of the gold wouldn't make a lick of difference unless, say, Germany's central bank decided it wanted to start using the gold for some practical, non-monetary purpose like making watches.

Also known as " plan".

& EU - INDU

[hirley0]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49540593

An article that made me laugh out loud about some of the ideas I've had about currencies over the last few years.

oops. looks like we may have to make a couple calls to Ethiopia to get things in order for the Germans...

& erman ? CU

[hirley0]

& i A French connection http://f-t-z.fr/forum/accueil.php

So now I'm reading about Milk,

[Disco Pickle]

Since this isn't a financial board, I thought a thread based on this was a silly idea, but I come here to the lot of you for troof, and thought I'd get some reality check outside of the bubble of forums I've dug through in my research on this idea.

Potentially an internets full of financial fuckery, but has anyone here heard of the P2P lending scene since it first debuted in 2006ish, crashed predictably, then began to recover?

Ippy, hirly0, have you heard of this? Is it something you'd do? 

Cain, Faust, P3nt, Pixy, and other boardlings outside of the states: is there anything like this going on across the pond?  I haven't done any digging on it happening outside of these borders but I'm curious about the mindset difference that might exist in other countries to lending money to strangers based on a risk calculated by a third party.

TGGR, LMNO, ECH, RWHN (sigh acronyms) you guys cut to the meat of issues and I'd appreciate the visceral on this one. 

I'm anticipating a discussion on usury coming from this and I'd be interested to have it.  It's a subject which I haven't formed a for or against, but currently support because it's all I've ever known people to do.

Full disclosure: I've already invested with both of the big sites, prosper and lending club, but I'm in for change and wouldn't miss it if they defaulted.  I'm really liking the idea of helping people get their house in order for rates lower than a bank would charge, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with my general distrust of people and their intentions. 

[Elder Iptuous]

I hadn't heard of it.  reading up on it now.  initial reaction is that if it became a viable means of borrowing for the wider audience, the banks would squash it like a bug.

[Faust]

Since this isn't a financial board, I thought a thread based on this was a silly idea, but I come here to the lot of you for troof, and thought I'd get some reality check outside of the bubble of forums I've dug through in my research on this idea.

Potentially an internets full of financial fuckery, but has anyone here heard of the P2P lending scene since it first debuted in 2006ish, crashed predictably, then began to recover?

Ippy, hirly0, have you heard of this? Is it something you'd do? 

Cain, Faust, P3nt, Pixy, and other boardlings outside of the states: is there anything like this going on across the pond?  I haven't done any digging on it happening outside of these borders but I'm curious about the mindset difference that might exist in other countries to lending money to strangers based on a risk calculated by a third party.

TGGR, LMNO, ECH, RWHN (sigh acronyms) you guys cut to the meat of issues and I'd appreciate the visceral on this one. 

I'm anticipating a discussion on usury coming from this and I'd be interested to have it.  It's a subject which I haven't formed a for or against, but currently support because it's all I've ever known people to do.

Full disclosure: I've already invested with both of the big sites, prosper and lending club, but I'm in for change and wouldn't miss it if they defaulted.  I'm really liking the idea of helping people get their house in order for rates lower than a bank would charge, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with my general distrust of people and their intentions.

It sounds like high risk, the people who are going to be attracted to it and cause it the largest loss are property developers who can stake enough cash to get a decent loan which will just be dumped into their over valued and saturated markets.
You can make money on this. And it's crash would have been a good time to get in, but you have to have a realistic exit and I couldn't for the life of me figure out what prices or times those would be.

[Disco Pickle]

I hadn't heard of it.  reading up on it now.  initial reaction is that if it became a viable means of borrowing for the wider audience, the banks would squash it like a bug.

Not sure they'd be able to now.  After Prosper's initial shutdown by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities, paying off the state fines, and filing with the SEC, they're officially operating within the law.  There is the problem of the pending class action filed by the group of initial investors who lost a large chunk of cash, and the fact that they're hemorrhaging cash to expand.  I'm still thinking they could continue to follow Lending Club's growth curve and turn profitable.

There have been some large funds moving in to keep them solvent, which means to me that there's definite potential for profit.  An independent audit last year put their seasoned return at somewhere around 9%, which beats the shit out of anything on the bond market.  Only a few of the mutual funds I hold are doing anything like that.

It sounds like high risk, the people who are going to be attracted to it and cause it the largest loss are property developers who can stake enough cash to get a decent loan which will just be dumped into their over valued and saturated markets.
You can make money on this. And it's crash would have been a good time to get in, but you have to have a realistic exit and I couldn't for the life of me figure out what prices or times those would be.

It's very much high risk.  I've thought of several scams that could easily be run by the sort of people who have absolutely no problem fucking people over using organized fraud and people with nothing to loose by screwing their credit score up for 7 years. 

I've also considered the possibility of people taking the cash and dumping it into a hard asset like a house, but at the rates the loans are going for, I can't see that being a good use unless the max loan of $20,000 would pay off the property, free up the monthly payment and the person was to just walk away from the debt until it became time barred.  If the house gets paid off and they're otherwise fairly financially stable, they could likely take the credit score hit over the next 7 years.  The difference between the likely mortgage rate and the rate for the cash is most likely very large.

Then, there's the possibility of someone with a good credit history taking out a full 20,000 (at around 5%ish I'm guessing, which is still a fucking crazy rate to borrow money) and spreading it out with enough care to get close to the 10% return I've seen people reporting.  Even after paying down the principle at the borrowing rate, you're still basically making free money.

[McMegaDeff]

recently got into the sven . . . it made sense enough to me, chinese movies ya! but it's looking pretty effed up nowadays.

Just getting into the stock market.

[Scribbly]

I've been thinking over how mucb has happened this year in politics and finance. For my own purposes I was going to do a 'yearly roundup' type thing for the year's big financial controversies when I get home tonight. Would y'all like it here or in its own thread?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Here, please.

I have been watching the slow capsizing of France with interest.

[Scribbly]

With two weeks to go until 2013 it seems like a good time to reflect on the year that was 2012. If you're anything like me, trying to keep up with the many flavours of doom and fucked-upness which plagued us throughout the year has been exhausting. This is by no means a comprehensive list but just a select few of the announcements and stories that seem to stand out the most by the end of this year.

First half of the year covered here. Second half will be covered tomorrow (hopefully).

(This is largely focused on Europe and the UK because that's where most of the action has been and that is where I've largely been paying attention - I'm sure I'm missing tons of stuff across the Middle East and USA particularly)

January

The new year starts with predictions that we will see a return to recession in Europe. Italy, France and Spain are foreshadowed in earnest alongside the continuing horror story that is Greece.

Obama is seen as weak on the economy and there are fears that he will not remain president. As all alternatives to him seem to be various brands of insanity this makes markets quiver.

Did you know the Olympics are happening this year? If not you are probably dead. Also the Olympics are simultaneously going to cure all Britain's economic woes and burden us with debt which will follow our children's children to their graves.

Eurozone manufacturing continues to decline or stagnate.

Greece threatens to exit the euro if it isn't bailed out. There is general wailing and gnashing of teeth. 'Will the Euro survive the year?' becomes the question people are 'too afraid to ask' and yet ask at every opportunity. Spoiler: Yes. Yes it will.

Greece eats more austerity measures, 30 buildings are burned down, 80,000 people protest and 40 MPs are thrown out for voting against the measures.

Oil price rises sharply due to middle east troubles.

US manufacturing is better than expected.

Chinese company Sinopec buys up vast amounts of US oil in a $2.2 bn deal. China's foreign investment record will continue to quietly grow in the background as large foreign company and assets are purchased throughout the year.

Banks borrow massively from the European Central Bank to shore up their reserves. Surprisingly this does not fill anyone with confidence.

Scottish Independence is discussed towards the end of January. People immediately scream that Scotland should be buried under a mountain of debt for their insolence, or something. Scottish independence will continue to lurk throughout the year.

Iranian oil is subjected to sanction.

February

Fred Goodwin disgraces the noble institution of the Knighthood omg.

Banker's bonuses are also used to hide the fact that no substantial change has been made to the banking industry. Instead token gestures to placate the public by cutting bonuses are made and seem to work.

China is sounded out about a Eurozone rescue fund. Laughs uproariously.

UK economy is going to enter recession!

Greek government is initially wary of the bailout proposal from the EU. Eventually thousands of job cuts are agreed.

The Conservative Party begins to turn on people 'banker bashing'. Constant reminders about how great the free market are become the norm.

More quantitative easing shoves another £50bn ... somewhere. This brings the total to £275 bn. Whether or not this has accomplished anything positive remains unclear.
Moody's places UK on negative outlook. People become aware that ratings agencies exist for seemingly the first time.

Italy and the Netherlands slide into recession.

March

Gold price falls by 5 per cent. Glenn Beck's head explodes on live TV (I wish).

Libor rate fixing story is broken for the first time.

Bank of America shifts $55 trillion of derivative risk onto the American taxpayer.

Protests sweep Italy and Spain as their governments bring in ruthless austerity measures. Italian protests set themselves on fire; Spanish protestors set fire to everything around them.

Eurozone unemployment continues to rise.

Brazil overtakes the UK's economy to become the 6th largest in the world.

April

Possible fuel strike hits the UK. Woman sets herself ablaze because the government tell her to.

Greek protests continue to be violent and bloody. More lives lost.

Britain goes into recession. Nobody is really surprised.

Pasty tax causes widespread horror as the public realizes they may have to pay more for fatty food.

IMF loans $987 million to Bangladesh

May

France elects Hollande over Sarkozy to try and bring about alternatives to austerity. He will ultimately prove unable to deliver on his full promise but his election does send ripples of concern throughout Europe as the anti-austerity lobby seems to be growing in popularity.

Spain continues to be in recession, markets decline steadily as we continue to be doomed. Spanish banks are forced to raise 30bn Euro to try and ease pressure. This does nothing.

Greece continues to spiral deeper and deeper into recession. An inability to form a government leads to yet more calls for Greece to leave the Eurozone.

Eurozone as a whole avoids recession because Germany grows; most everywhere else shrinks or remains stagnant.

Cameron demands Europe gets its act together. Is roundly mocked by all.

Facebook becomes publicly listed. Lol.

JPMorgan lost billions upon billions. How many billions? Uncertain but at least 6 by the end of the month. Also the American taxpayer foots the bill.

Japan's economy grows 1% as government spending on rebuilding causes a surge in business and investment. This goes uncommented on by the British government, whose continue slashing of public investment ensures the recession gets worse.

European business activity falls to a three year low.

OECD officially announces that the Eurozone is the biggest threat to global outlook because of the large amount of crisis hotpoints. WELL HOLY CRAP WHO WOULDA THUNK IT?

Pasty Tax fiasco continues into May. Politicians pretend to be human beings rather than android lizards by eating pasties in public at one another.

Vince Cable suggests learning from Germany rather than screeching at them as though they and the rest of the Eurozone are pod people. He is largely ignored by everyone else in government.

June

Eurozone unemployment reaches 11 per cent, American unemployment remains uncertain due to the vast amount of tinkering done with the definition of 'unemployment'.  No matter which way you slice it, it remains worse than expected and so world markets freak.

BASEL 3 is announced. For those unaware, BASEL 2 had still not been fully implemented when BASEL 3 was declared. Some estimates put full compliance as much as a decade away by which time we will presumably be up to BASEL 20. Or SYBIL will have closed down the hotel.

Greek tourism falls. Presumably because much of Greece is still on fire.

Australia seems to be doing very nicely thank you very much. Despite not featuring much up until this point, Australia's economy – when it has been mentioned – has consistently been strong and good.

European Central Bank declares that there are some risks to the Eurozone. Uproarious laughter occurs.

The Halifax says that British property prices will flatline. Daily Mail readers find more credence to claims the world will end in 2012.

Spain says it isn't seeking a bailout. Then it discusses a bailout. Spanish banks receive a bailout of 100bn Euro. By midway through the month they are asking for another 62 bn.

Brazil, despite having become the 6th largest economy in the world in March, is described as sliding backwards and having a 'once' booming economy as the Eurozone crisis deepens.

Italy sells off a number of major public companies to reduce their debt. This has no appreciable effect on their continued problems.

Greek election momentarily stalls European catastrophe.

The G20 occurs: Leaders agree that there are problems in Europe. They also agree something should be done. Somebody should do something. Probably.

UK Inflation drops to 2.8% officially despite food and fuel prices continuing to rocket upwards. Surely there can be no statistical witchcraft going on here.

UK banks are downgraded. Rage at ratings agencies is high as banks call them irresponsible. Irony meters worldwide explode.

UK government begins signalling that they will cut unemployment benefit and squeeze the unemployed. The fact that unemployment benefit makes up 2% of all benefits is quietly ignored by the media who seem to believe that not having a job is simply a matter of being lazy.

German unemployment rises to 6.8% (compared to a steady EU average of 11%)

[Junkenstein]

Holy shit.

More!

[Cain]

Excellent summation.  Looking forward to the second part.

[Scribbly]

July

Libor fixing continues to be the real news as evidence mounts that banks colluded to mislead the public.

Japan approves the merger of Tokyo and Osaka exchanges to make the world's third largest stock exchange.

Bank of England throws another £50bn into the economy. This brings us to £375bn. Apparently I missed £50bn somewhere, whoops!

Italy slashes national spending by 26 bn euro. Not to be outdone, the UK government slashes £6.7 bn more than expected (for a total of £11bn in the year to March).

China's demand for oil falls for the first time in three years – retail fuel price in China is cut 5%. Chinese growth slows but still stands at 7.8% as other economies stagnate or decline.

Euro falls to a 2 year low against the dollar.

UK borrowing rises in June. As it transpires this foreshadows a complete failure by the UK government to actually lower borrowing over the course of the year despite slashing budgets.

Spanish crisis deepens even further, and they ban short-selling.

Germany's AAA rating is put on negative outlook despite the fact that Germany is the only country in Europe pretty roundly considered to be doing okay.

UK recession deepens – GDP falls 0.75%

It transpires that $21 trillion is being sheltered in tax havens across the world by the top 0.001 per cent - the super rich. Nothing much is done with this knowledge.

August

Inexplicably the BBC chooses this month to ask whether we are looking at a global recession. I can only presume the economics editor awoke having suffered a deep coma from January until now.

The US decides that it won't press charges against Goldman Sachs.

The bank of England finally decides to stop pumping more money into the economy in the hope things would happen. Towards the end of the month it transpires that the top 5% of households in the UK have benefitted most from the quantitative easing measures.

RBS suffers a computer glitch which causes people to be unable to access their funds for a long time. They pay out £125 million to inconvenienced customers.

Italian economy is confirmed to have shrunk by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012.

The Olympics either destroyed or made the UK economy. Nobody really knows. They do largely agree that is was a bloody good time, though.

Greece's economy contracts by 6.2% in the second quarter of the year. There are more fires in Athens. Over 5 years Greece has lost 20% of its economy, in no small part due to the horrific mishandling of spending cuts and reaction from Europe.

Germany's economy actually grows! By 0.3%

The Eurozone as a whole contracts by 0.2%. If it contracts again in the third quarter it will officially be in recession and then presumably the earth will fly into the sun, according to most level-headed analysts.

Egypt asks for $4.8 bn from the IMF. There's no immediate answer.

September

Bond-buying euro debt plan put into action. Europe is now resigned to a recession in 2012 with a total of 0.4% shrinkage and hopes for a 0.5% growth in early 2013.

OECD suddenly rounds on the UK and believes it will shrink by 0.7%

Planning rules are to be relaxed in the UK, allowing the millions of people who want to build skyscrapers in their back gardens to do so. Surprisingly this does not bring us back into the black immediately.

Japan's growth slows but is still existant.

UK banks are accused of misselling 35bn euros of derivatives in Italy to the surprise of nobody.

Huawei – a Chinese telecoms giant – announces £1.3bn of investment in the UK over the next five years as China continues to make aggressive moves into infrastructure development.

The Federal Reserve adopts quantitative easing. Because it has been working so well everywhere else. Oil price reaches a four month high as a result of investors seeking a safe haven to put their cash.

Bank of England opens up a 'funding for lending' scheme which equates to allowing 5/6 top banks being allowed to borrow up to 5% of their loan book immediately and more if they follow through on lending targets. Taken together these 5 banks represent £1.2 trillion of lending.

Greek efforts to  meet stringent austerity targets fail causing yet more wailing and threats before they are given the next batch of money.

October

Hirley0 uses orange when asked to describe the state of the economy. This is the most dire warning to date.

Iran's rial hits an all time low against the US dollar. Iran is placed under enormous amounts of pressure internally and externally, but there is no clear path for them to take. Surely this could not possibly go horribly wrong.

The EU says banks should split risky trading from personal banking. Something which any sane person never stopped believing and most have been calling for since the beginning of the crisis.

The Bank of England continues to dramatically do nothing. Which is probably better than giving money to rich people.

US unemployment hits the lowest it has been since Obama took office. This may be in part due to people taking jobs for no pay and various other ways to manipulate statistics before an election, but try not to look behind the curtain. He's not Romney! And as his success becomes more obvious, markets stop panicking outright.

US eye Huawei and ZTE as security threats. Who would have thought that letting Chinese companies buy up energy and infrastructure assets might not be a great idea?!

The European Stability Mechanism is launched. Even from launch people point out that the 500 bn euro it has access to would be a fraction of the amount needed to rescue Italy or Spain, let alone both of them. The head of the fund says he is sure there'll be no more major decisions on Greece, though, so that's fine.

Greek and Spanish unemployment stand at 25%

Eurozone Banking Union proposed which will help set banking regulation across Europe. Cameron shits self in public and Osbourne bawls like a baby. It remains unclear what effect this will have on UK banking regulation.

Eurozone business activity contracts at its fastest rate in over three years – particularly in France and Germany.

The UK emerges from recession with a 1% growth boost from the Olympics! Almost as though investing public money in projects which come to fruition can be good for the economy. The country is still likely to end the year worse off than it began.

Hurricane Sandy hits the US causing $20bn of damage just as the economy starts to recover.

November

The UK government decides to mess with the price of alcohol because too few people hate them already.

Greece performs even worse than expected and stocks fall 5% as traders throw them under a bus.

Growth and Infrastructure bill introduced in the UK, designed to allow companies to tarmac puppies (or at least not care about the environment in their developments)

Ireland attempts to blame and shame those responsible for the crisis. Apparently they are unaware that bankers are incapable of feeling guilt as anything other than a warm and pleasant glow.

Greek riots ahead of the next round of austerity voting reach particularly impressive lengths with protestors pulling out all the stops. Athens continues to burn. The deal goes ahead anyway. Greece's economy falls yet again and they manage to negotiate more time for the deeper, harder cuts they clearly need to set themselves on the righteous path of growth.

Barack Obama is elected president. The sun rises the next morning.

Eurozone growth forecasts are cut again. I didn't mention these the last couple of months but a third consistent drop in forecasts is impressive.

Romney threats to blow up the economy in a fit of pique. Obama says 'Go ahead, punk, make my day.'

France loses triple-A credit rating. Remarkably the people of France continue to exist, rather than being sucked into a 'null space' as had been predicted by some experts.

UK public sector borrowing is admitted to be worse than expected. In truth it will transpire that despite the heavy cuts, Britain's foreign deficit has continued to grow under Osbourne.

Mark Carney is named as new Bank of England governor. He's a Canadian. This seems to be his most important qualification according to the media.

Mervyn King – now with nothing left to lose – points out that the Eurozone has become an even graver threat over the past year and is now set to crash and burn any hope the UK has for growth. He is largely ignored by government which continues its policy of pointing at the EU and screeching like a pod person. Nigel Farage criticizes the government for not screeching loudly enough.

Plans for a Eurobond are published. Germany pretty much declares this a no-go from the outset.

Eurozone unemployment hits record highs.

December

Osborne admits his plans have fucked everything forever. Resolves to fuck harder and deeper into the new year.

Greek bond buyback begins.

Australia continues to do pretty well on the quiet.

Ireland decides to raise taxes and slash public spending because this year has proven that to be a recipe for success.

Noise is made that the UK may lose its AAA rating. As France hasn't ceased to exist (yet) people wonder if we should care.

Use of the term 'Fiscal Cliff' reaches maximum annoyance threshold. Christine Lagarde demands that US leaders wrestle atop an actual cliff in order to solve the dispute once and for all.

Silvio Berlusconi announces that he will run for Prime Minister and that should he get it, he will solve all Italy's debt woes with his penis.

US and UK agree to allow one national regulator to oversee the insolvency of failing large banks, rather than asking bodies from different countries to deal with individual subsidiaries. This may be the first truly sensible and good piece of news in over six months. World edges closer to ending.

-------

And there we have it. The economic news to date.

There seems to be very little hope that anything being worked on now will turn things around in the new year. Going over this stuff has reaffirmed in my mind that the general hope from our politicians is that if they ignore the problem long enough it will go away. The big developments are likely to be:

Italy, Spain, Greece all suffering. Well, everyone is going to suffer next year. These countries will suffer even more than most I would imagine.

France may or may not be the next on Europe's chopping block; it has been declining, but it is still much stronger than the others.

Eurozone banking regulation is the only huge development coming along and I sincerely doubt it will have any teeth. Cameron will continue to shit bricks over this because it would directly hurt his friends if it came into effect and actually curbed banking excess.

The ESF is going to come online alongside existing bailout mechanisms. I would be astounded if it doesn't lend out all its money before 2014.

I suspect that American unemployment figures have been fiddled more than is obvious. That's largely because of the very fortunate timing for Obama. I could be wrong; if I am, it looks like America may be pulling around. China's growth is slowing but is still strong on a global scale, but the USA would be very vulnerable if EU members start collapsing as they have been threatening to do all year.