THE INEVITABLE SWINE FLU THREAD: How bad is it where YOU are?

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Geh. When you put it that way.

I just think that if you get sick you should just stay in bed for 3 days, eat soup and drink orange juice. Fever? Aspirin.

Ya know?

That's all most people need to do, but there will always be the babies and old people who need IV fluids, and the occasional middle-aged person who develops complications. If twice the usual number of people get the flu, and twice the usual percentage need medical care (even fairly light care, like IV fluids and anti-emetics) that causes a pretty spectacular burden on medical services. It's not even the severity of the illness... it's the numbers of people needing care. We don't get four times as many doctors, nurses or supplies just because four times as many people suddenly need minor treatment.

This is the correct Ambulance.

Pandemic is more about numbers of infections than severity of infections.

[LMNO]

I'm only going to worry when Madagascar closes its borders.

[Iason Ouabache]

I'm only going to worry when Madagascar closes its borders.

We have a winner!

[Xooxe]

That's all most people need to do, but there will always be the babies and old people who need IV fluids, and the occasional middle-aged person who develops complications. If twice the usual number of people get the flu, and twice the usual percentage need medical care (even fairly light care, like IV fluids and anti-emetics) that causes a pretty spectacular burden on medical services. It's not even the severity of the illness... it's the numbers of people needing care. We don't get four times as many doctors, nurses or supplies just because four times as many people suddenly need minor treatment.

I've been progressively reading internal CDC update briefs at wikileaks. As of June 5th, 7.8% of all cases have resulted in hospitalization. That's around 1 in 13.

http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Centers_for_Disease_Control:_Swine_flu_Director's_Update_Brief%2C_5_Jun_2009

[Cain]

Nigel, do you think the situation in Australia is likely to become the model for much of the Western world?  Cases there have doubled as winter has progressed and is likely to exacerbate problems due to more traditional flu striking at the same time.

And I have heard it could take until well after winter for UK labs and companies to produce enough vaccine for the most at risk from the disease.  And while this may just be UK hubris and reporting, I have heard this country is leading the way in research and manufacture of vaccines for the illness, so if that's true...

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Nigel, do you think the situation in Australia is likely to become the model for much of the Western world?  Cases there have doubled as winter has progressed and is likely to exacerbate problems due to more traditional flu striking at the same time.

And I have heard it could take until well after winter for UK labs and companies to produce enough vaccine for the most at risk from the disease.  And while this may just be UK hubris and reporting, I have heard this country is leading the way in research and manufacture of vaccines for the illness, so if that's true...

Yes, unfortunately, and it's going to get much worse in Australia. There's a tremendous amount of complacency and even smug denial in the US right now, but most people are forgetting that this is the time of year when flu is at its lowest transmission point for us. As cool weather sets in in the Northern hemisphere and people are spending more time indoors, and as children return to school this fall, we are going to see an epidemic of flu cases. There's really no getting around it.

Making adequate quantities of the vaccine is definitely an issue if we're thinking about relying on the vaccine for containment... there won't be enough for widespread vaccination by fall, period. At least, I can't imagine how there could be, even with the rumors I've heard of some labs dropping other vaccine projects to make room for it. There are a number of CDC labs in the US that have placed orders for the Swiss vaccine, so after they receive it, it's just a propagation game. The four to six month estimate puts us smack in the middle of the epidemic.

Basically, it's going to suck. It won't be the end of the world, but it will be pretty goddamn lame. It really couldn't happen at a worse time, economically, either.

[Cain]

Awesome.  Australia really dropped the ball on containment, as well (which is unusual, given their usually draconian border policies) which has no doubt helped the virus proliferate.  Even the UK has done a better job on that end of things, AFAIK.

I heard one of the problems (relating back to the economy) is that because the companies and governments are working with limited budgets, they've had to drop some of the more common flu vaccine production orders so they could prioritize the swine flu ones.  It makes sense, there are no really good options right now, but still the fallout from that is going to be worrying.

I wonder if I still qualify for jabs?  I used to be considered a high-risk group, along with the elderly and those with auto-immune disorders (and some others I cant remember) due to asthma, but in recent years, with Uni and all, I haven't been registered at any particular practice.  I also don't suffer from asthma anymore, but that didn't seem to stop them when I was 15-16.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Yep, dropping production of the other vaccines is going to result in some bad PR, at the very least, when people who receive Swine Flu vaccinations fall ill with other strains. That happens every year to some degree anyway. It's not much use to tell them that the flu they got was miserable, but the flu they didn't get would have been worse.

I'm a lot less worried about myself or even my family getting sick (we're all strong and healthy) than I am concerned about services being disrupted and the excessive strain on hospitals and clinics, especially given how many of my friends work in health care.

[Cain]

The only person I would be worried about is my grandmother, who is 84 and lives in an old peoples home surrounded by lots of other obviously vulnerable people.  However, they should all be first on the list for vaccination of more common flu strains, and the people working there are alert and competent, so I have no doubt they'll be doing their best to keep everyone aware and take whatever precautions they can.

My mother works in a boarding school with plenty of international students, so the chances of infection there are higher, but again everyone there is of an age where their immune system should be able to kick it.  And since I'll be only seeing her once every 7 weeks at best, I don't have to worry about infection from her too much, either.

So yeah, disruption is going to be the main issue.  

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Yeah, I worry about my dad too, but hopefully they'll be able to produce enough in time for all the vulnerable oldsters to get vaccinated early, along with health care workers.

[Jenne]

The Inuits are all getting it in the far reaches of Canada in remote places, so reported NPR the other day.  Nunavot and Sobol are being hit much more harshly than less remote places around the world, making it a true epidemic up there.  They downplayed it yesterday and the day before, but they've got a good chunk of the area under quarantine.

[the last yatto]

28days WTF that was a zombie virus
the stand had an actual influenza

Captain Tripps FTW

[Cainad (dec.)]

I'm only going to worry when Madagascar closes its borders.

[Cain]

2 girls at my mother's school have swine flu

[MMIX]

2 girls at my mother's school have swine flu

it could be worse - you might be in the West Midlands . . . boom,boom traditional anti-Midlands joke . . .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/8105787.stm