Olduvai Cliff theory

[Cain]

This is fun and interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization.

Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030) i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value.

The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating, after a Malthusian catastrophe, in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050.

The Olduvai Theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with renewable resources and the natural environment.

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections:

    * The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - energy per capita 'declined at 0.33%/year'
    * The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins ... with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'.
    * The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'

[Richter]

It's an interesting concept and a topical idea to pitch around. 
As for the effect of a reduction in per captia energy consumption.  Honestly, even if we DID dig up enough gas and oil, we're still playing a loosing game of Russian Roulette with pandemics and starvation.  There's not the infrastructure, research, or natural immunity to prevent that. 

[LMNO]

Does this take into account speculation of technological Black Swans?

For example, what if we insert Kurtzweil's "Singularity point" into the equation, or perhaps get a grasp on the nuclear weak force?

[Reginald Ret]

i thought black swans were impossible to make part of general predictions. That is the entire point of black swans no?

[Rococo Modem Basilisk]

The numerologist in me feels like pointing out the conspicuous 2012 date there. When was this idea first proposed? I cba to click the link atm. As interesting as it sounds, it also reminds me of predictions that we'd run out of oil prior to the 80s, etc.

[Roaring Biscuit!]

The numerologist in me feels like pointing out the conspicuous 2012 date there. When was this idea first proposed? I cba to click the link atm. As interesting as it sounds, it also reminds me of predictions that we'd run out of oil prior to the 80s, etc.

1989, its in the first sentence.

[Rococo Modem Basilisk]

Thanks. I feel dumb now :P.

[Richter]

i thought black swans were impossible to make part of general predictions. That is the entire point of black swans no?

Still, keep in mind that the most dramatic changes often come from said black swans.  Suddenly having cold fusion at our disposal, for example, could stave off some of the problems, but we'd likely start running short of fissionable materials and cooking the planet with waste heat.  (Like Larry Niven put forth.)

[LMNO]

The template for my skepticism being a prediction in the late 1800's that we would all die of starvation by 1930 because the rate of food/textile/energy production was kept constant in relation to population growth.

There seem to be myriad rates of growth that need to be taken into account; I was just asking if they had been accounted for.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

I have yet to see any of the historical "We're all gonna run out of * and DIE" come true... in fact, its one of the few reasons that 'Global Warming' still lives in my 'probably, not definately" category. Humans, ever since they've existed have adapted and changed and survived. Even when they had no idea what was going on, like Europe during the mini Ice Age... they realized that they couldn't grow grain anymore and started growing potatoes... well except for the French, but what can you expect?

If humans have advanced notice of any Calamity, it seems like we generally avert it or compensate for it.

Yeah, we suck... but we're damned good at adapting.

[Rococo Modem Basilisk]

I have yet to see any of the historical "We're all gonna run out of * and DIE" come true...

There is also the tautology angle. Though admittedly, we haven't even come nearly as close as expected on any of them.

[Richter]

I like LMNO's take, this isn't addressing all relevant factors.  It makes a good point, that the current economic / industrial system DOES eat resources to exhaustion very well, but branching over to Ratatosk's point, doesn't regard people as adaptable.

Branching into cynicism about this also, many people NEVER disinguish between "End of Life" and "End of lifestyle".  Also, the ones telling people how fucked they are usually have an agenda or product they are trying to push. 

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

I like LMNO's take, this isn't addressing all relevant factors.  It makes a good point, that the current economic / industrial system DOES eat resources to exhaustion very well, but branching over to Ratatosk's point, doesn't regard people as adaptable.

Branching into cynicism about this also, many people NEVER disinguish between "End of Life" and "End of lifestyle".  Also, the ones telling people how fucked they are usually have an agenda or product they are trying to push. 

Excellent points! It's like all that "Save the Earth" bullshit. The Earth will be fine, Even with Global Warming, the earth and Sun and planets will be fanfuckingtastic. Unless the Daleks destroy it.

However, "Save us from destroying our own habitat like retarded overpopulated rabbits" doesn't really have that Captain Planet feel to it.

Even were a Worst Case scenario to come to fruition, it would just be the next Age of humans. The survivors will survive and start building some new system. Maybe it will be better, maybe it will be worse... but it will probably be just like all other events in Human history.

Barring something like a giant rock smashing into the planet and eradicating all life, oxygen etc.

Even then, the Earth will spin on happily... probably like a cat that's just gotten a flea bath.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

This is fun and interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization.

Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030) i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value.

The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating, after a Malthusian catastrophe, in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050.

The Olduvai Theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with renewable resources and the natural environment.

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections:

    * The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - energy per capita 'declined at 0.33%/year'
    * The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins ... with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'.
    * The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'

Sounds like the "revolution of lowered expectations".

[Triple Zero]

I have yet to see any of the historical "We're all gonna run out of * and DIE" come true... in fact, its one of the few reasons that 'Global Warming' still lives in my 'probably, not definately" category. Humans, ever since they've existed have adapted and changed and survived. Even when they had no idea what was going on, like Europe during the mini Ice Age... they realized that they couldn't grow grain anymore and started growing potatoes... well except for the French, but what can you expect?

If humans have advanced notice of any Calamity, it seems like we generally avert it or compensate for it.

Yeah, we suck... but we're damned good at adapting.

Survivorship bias.

Did you read the Black Swan? These kinds of mistakes are one of the many reasons why humans fail so hard at predicting.. anything.

Reminds me of the thanksgiving turkey story, as well (but that's a different kind of bias).