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An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

Started by LMNO, July 01, 2009, 10:17:23 PM

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Thurnez Isa

#120
July 06, 2009, 08:41:34 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 06, 2009, 08:32:20 PM
Quote from: BabylonHoruv on July 06, 2009, 08:27:39 PM
I might try it again another time when I am feeling better, but I think I am leaning toward the idea put up by a few others that guessing die rolls is not a very useful (or possible) use of magic.

Yeah.  A few more experiments and you might pursue this line of thought to its inevitable conclusion.






the problem is.. is by chance your bound to eventually get something by luck alone... and for many people this then becomes confirmation

its kind of like a compulsive gambler. You win once and that offsets all the loses
Through me the way to the city of woe, Through me the way to everlasting pain, Through me the way among the lost.
Justice moved my maker on high.
Divine power made me, Wisdom supreme, and Primal love.
Before me nothing was but things eternal, and eternal I endure.
Abandon all hope, you who enter here.
Dante

The Good Reverend Roger

#121
July 06, 2009, 08:46:41 PM
Quote from: Thurnez Isa on July 06, 2009, 08:41:34 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 06, 2009, 08:32:20 PM
Quote from: BabylonHoruv on July 06, 2009, 08:27:39 PM
I might try it again another time when I am feeling better, but I think I am leaning toward the idea put up by a few others that guessing die rolls is not a very useful (or possible) use of magic.

Yeah.  A few more experiments and you might pursue this line of thought to its inevitable conclusion.






the problem is.. is by chance your bound to eventually get something by luck alone... and for many people this then becomes confirmation

its kind of like a compulsive gambler. You win once and that offsets all the loses

That's where the Canada Bill Jones Principle comes in.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

BabylonHoruv

#122
July 06, 2009, 08:47:08 PM
Quote from: Thurnez Isa on July 06, 2009, 08:41:34 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 06, 2009, 08:32:20 PM
Quote from: BabylonHoruv on July 06, 2009, 08:27:39 PM
I might try it again another time when I am feeling better, but I think I am leaning toward the idea put up by a few others that guessing die rolls is not a very useful (or possible) use of magic.

Yeah.  A few more experiments and you might pursue this line of thought to its inevitable conclusion.






the problem is.. is by chance your bound to eventually get something by luck alone... and for many people this then becomes confirmation

its kind of like a compulsive gambler. You win once and that offsets all the loses

Actually, considering it is die rolls, it is almost exactly like a gambler.  

Although I do tend to do better than break even when I gamble.  On the other hand I don't gamble often and I do it with friends, not on the lottery or in Vegas or in other systems where I know the odds are stacked against me.
You're a special case, Babylon.  You are offensive even when you don't post.

Merely by being alive, you make everyone just a little more miserable

-Dok Howl

Cain

#123
July 06, 2009, 08:52:39 PM
Survivor bias.  Lots of stock brokers do real well too....until they don't and lose hard.

The House always wins in the long run.  Unless you cheat.

AFK

#124
July 06, 2009, 08:53:08 PM
Quote from: Thurnez Isa on July 06, 2009, 08:41:34 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 06, 2009, 08:32:20 PM
Quote from: BabylonHoruv on July 06, 2009, 08:27:39 PM
I might try it again another time when I am feeling better, but I think I am leaning toward the idea put up by a few others that guessing die rolls is not a very useful (or possible) use of magic.

Yeah.  A few more experiments and you might pursue this line of thought to its inevitable conclusion.






the problem is.. is by chance your bound to eventually get something by luck alone... and for many people this then becomes confirmation

its kind of like a compulsive gambler. You win once and that offsets all the loses

Actually, the compulsive gambler is usually so far in debt that even a big win won't offset the losses.  It will however, as you say, be confirmation that they've somehow struck lady luck and will continue on into financial oblivion.

Cynicism is a blank check for failure.

rubickspoop

#125
July 07, 2009, 01:22:10 AM
I send my regards to Babylon for actually doing it. Ballsy, sir, thank you for taking part in that experiment.
It seems like everyone involved did pretty well, considering there was 2/3 chance of predicting the roll, and everyone who participated did better than 67%.
Perhaps posting on pd makes one more in touch with magic?
I'm a celebrity... Get me out of here!

The Good Reverend Roger

#126
July 07, 2009, 04:46:34 AM
Quote from: rubickspoop on July 07, 2009, 01:22:10 AM
I send my regards to Babylon for actually doing it. Ballsy, sir, thank you for taking part in that experiment.
It seems like everyone involved did pretty well, considering there was 2/3 chance of predicting the roll, and everyone who participated did better than 67%.
Perhaps posting on pd makes one more in touch with magic?

UNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNnnn....

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNnnn....

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG!
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Requia ☣

#127
July 07, 2009, 05:29:26 AM
Um, statistically speaking the accuracy of both Horuv and all 4 guessers as a whole was above what should have been guessed, if not quite up to what Horuv claimed.

Horuv should have gotten 56.6-76.6 correct, he got 77, just outside the statistical expectation.  The 4 guessers together got 300/400 right, they should have had 253.1-279.7, which is *way* outside.

If those results are repeated at similar levels then I'm dragging you assholes down to vegas.
Inflatable dolls are not recognized flotation devices.

Requia ☣

#128
July 07, 2009, 05:32:58 AM
Checking my numbers, the 4 guessers as a whole had about a .5% chance to be that accurate.  Doing that twice in a row would be a statistically impossible event.
Inflatable dolls are not recognized flotation devices.

rubickspoop

#129
July 07, 2009, 07:34:35 AM
Not statistically impossible. Nothing is statistically impossible. It would be pretty damn close to impossible, a tiny fraction of a percent possible. But if this is repeated with similar results, it would support a hypothesis that pd is magic!
I'm a celebrity... Get me out of here!

The Good Reverend Roger

#130
July 07, 2009, 07:37:04 AM
Quote from: Requia on July 07, 2009, 05:32:58 AM
Checking my numbers, the 4 guessers as a whole had about a .5% chance to be that accurate.  Doing that twice in a row would be a statistically impossible event.

"Improbable".
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

The Good Reverend Roger

#131
July 07, 2009, 07:37:24 AM
Quote from: rubickspoop on July 07, 2009, 07:34:35 AM
Not statistically impossible. Nothing is statistically impossible. It would be pretty damn close to impossible, a tiny fraction of a percent possible. But if this is repeated with similar results, it would support a hypothesis that pd is magic!

Shoot yourself in the face.  Thanks.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Requia ☣

#132
July 07, 2009, 10:27:34 AM
'Statistically Impossible' means less than a .01% chance of occurring.  Which is why its 'statistically impossible', not 'impossible'.
Inflatable dolls are not recognized flotation devices.

Roaring Biscuit!

#133
July 07, 2009, 11:04:44 AM
requia what method are you using to approximate statistical improbability?

x

edd

LMNO

#134
July 07, 2009, 12:41:21 PM
Quote from: Requia on July 07, 2009, 05:29:26 AM
Um, statistically speaking the accuracy of both Horuv and all 4 guessers as a whole was above what should have been guessed, if not quite up to what Horuv claimed.

Horuv should have gotten 56.6-76.6 correct, he got 77, just outside the statistical expectation.  The 4 guessers together got 300/400 right, they should have had 253.1-279.7, which is *way* outside.

If those results are repeated at similar levels then I'm dragging you assholes down to vegas.

What about the fact that 3 and 4 came up 45 times out of 100?

The "average" for either 3 or 4 to come up is 33.3%.  The fact that it came up 45% of the time should significant, as it means that any guesser, no matter what, will get 45 right.  Everyone's score was raised because of it.  Is there a way to account for that statistical deviation?
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