An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

[LMNO]

I don't have his predictions, and I'm going away for the weekend.


So, results on Monday!

[BabylonHoruv]

I don't have his predictions, and I'm going away for the weekend.


So, results on Monday!

I sent them to Cram and Fomentor.  Didn't know if I was supposed to send them to you too or not.

[LMNO]

Ah.  You can send them to me. 

[BabylonHoruv]

predictions, including the actual numbers predicted, just for fun

6,1,2,2,6,5,1,2,1,5,4,1,5,1,4,6,1,2,3,2,5,1,1,3,4,2,2,5,6,3,1,3,1,5,3,3,6,3,4,3,3,1,3,2,6,4,6,3,2,3,3,3,1,1,2,5,2,4,2,3,2,5,1,2,5,1,5,3,4,5,1,2,4,1,6,5,1,6,5,1,6,5,1,6,1,3,2,3,4,5,5,2,3,2,3,5,2,3,5,1

H,L,L,L,H,H,L,L,L,H,H,L,H,L,H,H,L,L,L,L,H,L,L,L,H,L,L,H,H,L,L,L,L,H,L,L,H,L,H,L,L,L,L,L,H,H,H,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,H,L,H,L,L,L,H,L,L,H,L,H,L,H,H,L,L,H,L,H,H,L,H,H,L,H,H,L,H,L,L,L,L,H,H,H,L,L,L,L,H,L,L,H,L

[Iason Ouabache]

BTW, has anyone contacted James Randi yet? If Babylon actually does have something going here then we might be eligible for a million bucks.

[ñͤͣ̄ͦ̌̑͗͊͛͂͗ ̸̨̨̣̺̼̣̜͙͈͕̮̊̈́̈͂͛̽͊ͭ̓͆ͅé ̰̓̓́ͯ́́͞]

BTW, has anyone contacted James Randi yet? If Babylon actually does have something going here then we might be eligible for a million bucks.

You're just trying to evoke skeptic energy to mess with the results.

SPERIMENT ROONT.

[Cain]

 

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

This shouldn't be interesting. But I will have plenty to think about if it is.


Also: this experiment should be done at least twice, to ensure that the results can be reliably replicated. Not necessarily immediately after this one, but at some point.

I would suggest at least three times, and with a sceptic doing the guessing once.

Also, someone with statistics experience (NIGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL!) should look at the results, because there is a particular test (chi-squared?  I can't remember) which you can apply to tell you if deviations in answers fall within a reasonable range or if they indicate something else is going on.

What? Oh hi. What am I supposed to do? Interpret the statistical deviation of the results if they fall outside of the expected range of probability?

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

This shouldn't be interesting. But I will have plenty to think about if it is.


Also: this experiment should be done at least twice, to ensure that the results can be reliably replicated. Not necessarily immediately after this one, but at some point.

I would suggest at least three times, and with a sceptic doing the guessing once.

Also, someone with statistics experience (NIGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL!) should look at the results, because there is a particular test (chi-squared?  I can't remember) which you can apply to tell you if deviations in answers fall within a reasonable range or if they indicate something else is going on.

What? Oh hi. What am I supposed to do? Interpret the statistical deviation of the results if they fall outside of the expected range of probability?

I think the first question was about the existing probabilities:

So Babylon picks L or H (low or high) and 1234=L 3456=H

What is the statistical likelihood that he will randomly pick the right one, we're looking for 66% or something near there. LMNO thinks this boils down to 50/50 and I'm inclined to agree.

WHAT DOES THE NIGEL THINKS?

[Cainad (dec.)]

This shouldn't be interesting. But I will have plenty to think about if it is.


Also: this experiment should be done at least twice, to ensure that the results can be reliably replicated. Not necessarily immediately after this one, but at some point.

I would suggest at least three times, and with a sceptic doing the guessing once.

Also, someone with statistics experience (NIGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL!) should look at the results, because there is a particular test (chi-squared?  I can't remember) which you can apply to tell you if deviations in answers fall within a reasonable range or if they indicate something else is going on.

What? Oh hi. What am I supposed to do? Interpret the statistical deviation of the results if they fall outside of the expected range of probability?

Yes. And also to generally correct any grievous mistakes made on our part about statistics and probability (of which I personally see none, but I don't know much about this sort of thing and I am also kinda dumb).

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

It's pretty much a binary question, so yeah, it boils down to 50/50 if we're just looking at a high/low ration and not sorting his guesses by accuracy.

[Thurnez Isa]

The problem, if there is one, I think lays Nigel is that both 3 and 4 are both high and low

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I mean, if we're throwing away the threes and fours, and the fives and sixes count the same and the ones and twos count the same, what's the point of this exercise? It's just a complicated way to use a die as a coin.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

[bds]

I don't think so, Nigel. Seems that way to me too...