An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

[Thurnez Isa]

What happens if Babylon "wins"...  is science broken?

no but it lends some validity to his claim
science's job is not to say a certain claim is crap
its to test the claim
that's what all those anti-science new age magic freaks don't understand
if they could perform a certain task
IT IS SCIENCE

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Correct.

I think there is a difference between skepticism and pseudo-skepticism. Scientists need to be skeptics, they assume X is unknown and look to see if they can find data that may prove or disprove. Pseudo-skeptics though start from the assumption that X is false, unless data proves otherwise.

I think this is one of the key bits that some people label 'fundie'.

[Iason Ouabache]

Really Real Skeptics start with the null hypothesis and then try to prove that wrong. Start with the assumption that there is nothing there and then try to find evidence that there is.

http://www.null-hypothesis.co.uk/science//item/what_is_a_null_hypothesis

In statistics, the only way of supporting your hypothesis is to refute the null hypothesis. Rather than trying to prove your idea (the alternate hypothesis) right you must show that the null hypothesis is likely to be wrong – you have to 'refute' or 'nullify' the null hypothesis. Unfortunately you have to assume that your alternate hypothesis is wrong until you find evidence to the contrary.

[LMNO]

Ok, i'm going to do this at noon, EST.  Be prepared.

[Fuquad]

1-4 low 5-6 high.

of course that gives you roughly 66.6..% but sometimes you must make do.

[Golden Applesauce]

1-4 low 5-6 high.

of course that gives you roughly 66.6..% but sometimes you must make do.

No, High is 3-6.  Which means roughly one third of the results will be both High and Low.  Babylon's magic apparently works best if he has a 2/3rds chance of getting it right anyway.

[LMNO]

You must have seen my pre-edit post.


So, I will roll the die, and record the number.

For example, if I roll
1
2
3
4
5
6

It can be scored in the following ways:

1 L
2 L
3 L,H
4 L,H
5 H
6 H


We will be matching the numbers v. the predictions.

what's interesting with this is that while in one sense he gets a 66% chance of being correct, in another sense, he can be RIGHT 33% of the time, and LUCKY 33% of the time.

I'd really like to figure another way to get a 2/3 probability much more cleanly.

[Fuquad]

On a roll from 1-4 is low
on a roll from 5-6 is high.

He should average 2/3rds merely by picking low.

However Long Walk statistics lets us know that this is not the case. He will most likely not reach the target goal of +25% percent using that technique, and he will definitely not make it if the Long Walk goes against his favor. He will most likely have to mix up his guesses in order to make the goal.

[BabylonHoruv]

My predictions are sent to Cram and Fomenter.

I included numerical predictions as well as High Low, to see how close those are.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I think you should just challenge him to 10 games of Blackjack.

Card counting > magic, every single time.

THIS.

[BabylonHoruv]

would it be cheating to also send my prediction to LMNO prior to him rolling the dice?  I don't wanna step outside the established rules, I just think that might make it more likely he'll roll the way I predicted.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

would it be cheating to also send my prediction to LMNO prior to him rolling the dice?  I don't wanna step outside the established rules, I just think that might make it more likely he'll roll the way I predicted.

[Cainad (dec.)]

This shouldn't be interesting. But I will have plenty to think about if it is.


Also: this experiment should be done at least twice, to ensure that the results can be reliably replicated. Not necessarily immediately after this one, but at some point.

[Triple Zero]

Ok, honestly now.

The basics of the experiment: I will roll a six-sided die 100 times, recording the sequence of the results: 1-4 (L), or 3-6 (H).  I will then PM those results to Rat and Cain.  I will also PM 000 and Nigel, and tell them my expectations and assumptions of this experiment.

huh what? do I need to do anything?

here's 100 dice rolls: http://bit.ly/trips-secret-stash-of-random-numbers knock yourself out. it's my prediction.

if they are not correct, then maybe the gods messed it up and this is actually the correct prediction for that sports picks game thingy I did a while ago when I used a coin and failed horribly.

In which case the coin from back then is the correct prediction for today.

[BabylonHoruv]

Ok, honestly now.

The basics of the experiment: I will roll a six-sided die 100 times, recording the sequence of the results: 1-4 (L), or 3-6 (H).  I will then PM those results to Rat and Cain.  I will also PM 000 and Nigel, and tell them my expectations and assumptions of this experiment.

huh what? do I need to do anything?

here's 100 dice rolls: http://bit.ly/trips-secret-stash-of-random-numbers knock yourself out. it's my prediction.

if they are not correct, then maybe the gods messed it up and this is actually the correct prediction for that sports picks game thingy I did a while ago when I used a coin and failed horribly.

In which case the coin from back then is the correct prediction for today.

You need to reveal his expectation afterwards.