### Author Topic: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO  (Read 40912 times)

#### Cramulus

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2009, 04:10:03 pm »
1 L
2 L
3 L, H
4 L, H
5 H
6 H

If BH guesses H, the odds of him being right are 4/6
If BH guesses L, the odds of him being right are 4/6

I suck at stats, but I'm pretty sure we should see a 66% success rate

#### AFK

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #46 on: July 02, 2009, 04:14:50 pm »
Yes, if he made 100 guesses, it is very likely he would get 50 to 60 of them correct.
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#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #47 on: July 02, 2009, 04:15:31 pm »
Yeah, like I said, the probability he'll be right is 66%.

But the probability his predictions will have any effect on his final score seems to be 50%.

The only time a prediction can be considered "wrong" is if he says rolls of 1&2 are "High", and rolls of 5&6 are "low".

That really seems to me to be a more elaborate way of calling heads and tails.

#### AFK

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #48 on: July 02, 2009, 04:17:23 pm »
Yeah, like I said, the probability he'll be right is 66%.

But the probability his predictions will have any effect on his final score seems to be 50%.

The only time a prediction can be considered "wrong" is if he says rolls of 1&2 are "High", and rolls of 5&6 are "low".

That really seems to me to be a more elaborate way of calling heads and tails.

It essentially is, except it is a really wide coin that lands on its side roughly every third flip.
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#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #49 on: July 02, 2009, 04:18:19 pm »
For example, I could roll the die, and ask, "is it 1&2, or is it 5&6?", and simply re-roll if it's 3&4, because either answer would be correct.

So, with a randomized rolling process, it should come up 1&2 equally as often as 5&6.  That's 50%, right?

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #50 on: July 02, 2009, 04:19:49 pm »
If you want to PM them to me, I can add it to the spreadsheet.

Sent.

And it does seem like an awfully complicated version of a coin flip. Why couldn't we do that, again?

#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #51 on: July 02, 2009, 04:20:55 pm »
Babylon claims his magic works best if he starts with a 2/3 chance of being right.  Which, technically, this does.

#### AFK

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #52 on: July 02, 2009, 04:24:26 pm »
For example, I could roll the die, and ask, "is it 1&2, or is it 5&6?", and simply re-roll if it's 3&4, because either answer would be correct.

So, with a randomized rolling process, it should come up 1&2 equally as often as 5&6.  That's 50%, right?

Sounds right.  Though, if you want to get technical, I think it would be 50% over a series of 100 rolls.  Cause in any one set of 100 rolls, you might, by chance, get an inordinate amount of one of the sets of numbers.
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#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #53 on: July 02, 2009, 04:28:35 pm »
True.  Probability and actuality are fairly different.

#### Jenne

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #54 on: July 02, 2009, 04:49:03 pm »
If you want to PM them to me, I can add it to the spreadsheet.

I'll forward Thorney's shall I?

#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #55 on: July 02, 2009, 04:49:57 pm »
Go for it.

#### Jenne

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #56 on: July 02, 2009, 04:53:17 pm »
K, on it.

#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #57 on: July 02, 2009, 05:07:15 pm »
Cheers.

#### LMNO

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #58 on: July 02, 2009, 07:57:04 pm »
So, uh...

Anyone hear from Babylon today?

#### Thurnez Isa

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##### Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #59 on: July 02, 2009, 08:00:26 pm »