An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

[Thurnez Isa]

Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

33% not 50%

He's basing that on a line by Pete Carroll where Pete says that if something is 2/3's likely, magic has a higher likelihood of impacting the results. Though, to be fair to Pete, he would probably not consider this a useful experiment in magic.

[Fuquad]

Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

33% not 50%

He's basing that on a line by Pete Carroll where Pete says that if something is 2/3's likely, magic has a higher likelihood of impacting the results. Though, to be fair to Pete, he would probably not consider this a useful experiment in magic.

Flipping a low 1-4 is a 2/3 occurrence. Flipping high on a 5-6 is a 1/3 occurrence.
Since you seem to have a problem finding a way to model predictions as correct 2/3rds of the time you should have the experiment be  to influence the outcome of the results in one direction or the other.

since the number range I list above has a 2/3 chance of being low it's the low numbers that need to be affected.

[Cain]

This shouldn't be interesting. But I will have plenty to think about if it is.


Also: this experiment should be done at least twice, to ensure that the results can be reliably replicated. Not necessarily immediately after this one, but at some point.

I would suggest at least three times, and with a sceptic doing the guessing once.

Also, someone with statistics experience (NIGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL!) should look at the results, because there is a particular test (chi-squared?  I can't remember) which you can apply to tell you if deviations in answers fall within a reasonable range or if they indicate something else is going on.

What? Oh hi. What am I supposed to do? Interpret the statistical deviation of the results if they fall outside of the expected range of probability?

Thats what I was hoping for.

Though devising a better test might seem like a plan as well.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

33% not 50%

He's basing that on a line by Pete Carroll where Pete says that if something is 2/3's likely, magic has a higher likelihood of impacting the results. Though, to be fair to Pete, he would probably not consider this a useful experiment in magic.

Flipping a low 1-4 is a 2/3 occurrence. Flipping high on a 5-6 is a 1/3 occurrence.
Since you seem to have a problem finding a way to model predictions as correct 2/3rds of the time you should have the experiment be  to influence the outcome of the results in one direction or the other.

since the number range I list above has a 2/3 chance of being low it's the low numbers that need to be affected.

This might work. Something about it is bothering me.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I guess one of the things that bugs me is that it's still a binary test. You can "give" him a certain percentage of the guesses, but it's still basically coin-flipping.

[Fuquad]

5's could be medium and 6's could be high which would give a high medium and low results. it would leave the initial 2/3 chance alone yet add a higher chance of being wrong. Since the experiment is about the initial chances it would not be unfair to do. I just saw the problem to be finding a experiment that gives something a 2/3 chance of occurrence  of happening and devising a test based on that occurrence.

[Cainad (dec.)]

I want to create a pention to ban probability from our mahdjique

something about mathemagicians using our own dice rolls against us as coin flips

or

[Cainad (dec.)]

I apologize for that post. It was supposed to be a semi-intelligent post that would be my attempt to help us discuss our way out of this confusion, but I panicked.

[Roaring Biscuit!]

low = 1-4

high = 5-6

?

2/3 probability of being right if you randomly guess high or low.

x

edd

[Thurnez Isa]

its low 1 - 4
high 3 - 6
3,4 are both low and high

[Roaring Biscuit!]

i know i was suggesting an alternative, in which the probability of being correct is actually 2/3 rather than 1/2  

edit:  course we'd have to repeat the experiment if we wanted to do that

edit2:  with our current experimental results, as well as looking at LMNO's "is magic 25% better" hypothesis, we could also calculate whether there is a significant statistical difference using a normal distribution (as the mean correct answers would be 50 p=0.5, n<10 so its basically a perfect set-up for that test... i think...  nigel?)

[Cainad (dec.)]

low = 1-4

high = 5-6

?

2/3 probability of being right if you randomly guess high or low.

x

edd

This is what I was going to suggest, actually. In this case he knows he has a 2/3 chance of being right if he guesses low, so the trick is achieving significantly better than 2/3 accuracy.

[the last yatto]

You can see where he's injected lead into the dice, if you look carefully.

fact: easiest way to load a die is to leave it in the sun

[the last yatto]

thread needs more pie