Author Topic: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO  (Read 51943 times)

Thurnez Isa

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #75 on: July 02, 2009, 09:41:56 pm »
Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #76 on: July 02, 2009, 09:50:37 pm »
Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

33% not 50%

He's basing that on a line by Pete Carroll where Pete says that if something is 2/3's likely, magic has a higher likelihood of impacting the results. Though, to be fair to Pete, he would probably not consider this a useful experiment in magic.
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #77 on: July 02, 2009, 10:33:26 pm »
Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

33% not 50%

He's basing that on a line by Pete Carroll where Pete says that if something is 2/3's likely, magic has a higher likelihood of impacting the results. Though, to be fair to Pete, he would probably not consider this a useful experiment in magic.

Flipping a low 1-4 is a 2/3 occurrence. Flipping high on a 5-6 is a 1/3 occurrence.
 Since you seem to have a problem finding a way to model predictions as correct 2/3rds of the time you should have the experiment be  to influence the outcome of the results in one direction or the other.

since the number range I list above has a 2/3 chance of being low it's the low numbers that need to be affected.
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #78 on: July 03, 2009, 11:25:36 am »
This shouldn't be interesting. But I will have plenty to think about if it is.


Also: this experiment should be done at least twice, to ensure that the results can be reliably replicated. Not necessarily immediately after this one, but at some point.

I would suggest at least three times, and with a sceptic doing the guessing once.

Also, someone with statistics experience (NIGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL!) should look at the results, because there is a particular test (chi-squared?  I can't remember) which you can apply to tell you if deviations in answers fall within a reasonable range or if they indicate something else is going on.

What? Oh hi. What am I supposed to do? Interpret the statistical deviation of the results if they fall outside of the expected range of probability?

Thats what I was hoping for.

Though devising a better test might seem like a plan as well.

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #79 on: July 03, 2009, 05:20:30 pm »
Unless I am missing something really crucial in the interpretation...

its because he claims he can predict 66% accuracy not 50%

33% not 50%

He's basing that on a line by Pete Carroll where Pete says that if something is 2/3's likely, magic has a higher likelihood of impacting the results. Though, to be fair to Pete, he would probably not consider this a useful experiment in magic.

Flipping a low 1-4 is a 2/3 occurrence. Flipping high on a 5-6 is a 1/3 occurrence.
 Since you seem to have a problem finding a way to model predictions as correct 2/3rds of the time you should have the experiment be  to influence the outcome of the results in one direction or the other.

since the number range I list above has a 2/3 chance of being low it's the low numbers that need to be affected.

This might work. Something about it is bothering me.
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #80 on: July 03, 2009, 05:25:14 pm »
I guess one of the things that bugs me is that it's still a binary test. You can "give" him a certain percentage of the guesses, but it's still basically coin-flipping.
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #81 on: July 03, 2009, 07:33:02 pm »
5's could be medium and 6's could be high which would give a high medium and low results. it would leave the initial 2/3 chance alone yet add a higher chance of being wrong. Since the experiment is about the initial chances it would not be unfair to do. I just saw the problem to be finding a experiment that gives something a 2/3 chance of occurrence  of happening and devising a test based on that occurrence.
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #82 on: July 03, 2009, 08:33:25 pm »
I want to create a pention to ban probability from our mahdjique

something about mathemagicians using our own dice rolls against us as coin flips

or :?

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #83 on: July 03, 2009, 08:34:35 pm »
I apologize for that post. It was supposed to be a semi-intelligent post that would be my attempt to help us discuss our way out of this confusion, but I panicked.

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #84 on: July 03, 2009, 10:26:48 pm »
low = 1-4

high = 5-6

?

2/3 probability of being right if you randomly guess high or low.

x

edd

Thurnez Isa

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #85 on: July 03, 2009, 10:28:07 pm »
its low 1 - 4
high 3 - 6
3,4 are both low and high
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Justice moved my maker on high.
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #86 on: July 03, 2009, 10:29:34 pm »
i know i was suggesting an alternative, in which the probability of being correct is actually 2/3 rather than 1/2   :D

edit:  course we'd have to repeat the experiment if we wanted to do that

edit2:  with our current experimental results, as well as looking at LMNO's "is magic 25% better" hypothesis, we could also calculate whether there is a significant statistical difference using a normal distribution (as the mean correct answers would be 50 p=0.5, n<10 so its basically a perfect set-up for that test... i think...  nigel?)
« Last Edit: July 03, 2009, 10:40:15 pm by Roaring Biscuit! »

Cainad (dec.)

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #87 on: July 03, 2009, 11:12:03 pm »
low = 1-4

high = 5-6

?

2/3 probability of being right if you randomly guess high or low.

x

edd

This is what I was going to suggest, actually. In this case he knows he has a 2/3 chance of being right if he guesses low, so the trick is achieving significantly better than 2/3 accuracy.

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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #88 on: July 03, 2009, 11:22:08 pm »
You can see where he's injected lead into the dice, if you look carefully.
fact: easiest way to load a die is to leave it in the sun
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Re: An experiment with Babylon and LMNO
« Reply #89 on: July 03, 2009, 11:29:24 pm »
thread needs more pie
Look, asshole:  Your 'incomprehensible' act, your word-salad, your pinealism...It BORES ME.  I've been incomprehensible for so long, I TEACH IT TO MBA CANDIDATES.  So if you simply MUST talk about your pineal gland or happy children dancing in the wildflowers, go talk to Roger, because he digs that kind of shit