An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

[Cramulus]

this reminds me of the Science Experiment: Chaos Magic thread, except that this thread actually produced results.

One of the problems I have with this experiment is that I've never met anyone (aside from Babylon) who claims that they can use magic to influence (or predict) concrete stuff like this. AFAIK Magic is typically used for more vague stuff with less measurable outcomes. (hence the argument that it doesn't do anything)

I know there are number of people onboard who have utilized sigils. If we could agree on something to measure and a related statement of intent, I'm sure a few people (myself included) would be willing to put that method to the test.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

I don't know that Sigil magic, in and of itself, would produce something measurable from relative positions... that is, for me it seems to nudge things, generally things in my own environment that I can have an impact on. However, memetic magic seems far more likely to create an impact in some measurable way. Meme Magic, at least in some of the ways I've seen it presented are loosely related to Sigil magic, but have the added function of externalizing the sigil and promoting it through some social group.

I'll dig through the Book of Atem tonight and see if anything jumps out as inspiring.

[Cramulus]

I'm sitting here in the psychological model, and from where I'm sitting, we're about to hit a semantic bump because there are two different definitions of magic we're trying to test:

A) Magic is just the application of will to change the universe (in which case, getting out of bed this morning was a sort of magic)
B) Magic is the application of supernatural forces to change the universe.

we can test the second one, but the first one might be too vague for empiricism.

[LMNO]

As far as I can tell, the experiment in this thread was testing to see if accurate predictions can be made when separated from all known forms of external information.

If accurate predictions can be made, that either points to a faulty experiment, or an unknown source of information* which can be accessed through certain processes currently referred to as Magic.










*there are a few other explanations as well, but fuck it.

[Thurnez Isa]

it doesn't look like Babylon was significantly better than anyone else (if you notice, Thurnez beat him);

considering I chose from looking at 100 random porn jpgs, and testing if it gave me a slight stiffy
that doesn't bear well

[LMNO]

Or it might be THE ONLY ONE TRUE MAGICK.

[Roaring Biscuit!]

I was going to run it through a normal distibution test, to see whether there was a significant difference looking at z-values, but as soon as I calculated the standard deviation I realised it was a waste of time to go any further.  All the results were within one standard deviation from the mean, which means none of them would have satisfied the criteria of the test.

Anyways:   more magick testing!  this is fun... sorta...

[The Good Reverend Roger]

my calculations aint perfect, as two of LMNO's rolls went awol.  So my tally is out of 98.

BH correctly predicted 66 rolls as L/H, meaning he was correct 67.3% of the time.  whether this is significant is yet to be decided (in my opinion).

He correctly predicted the exact number 16.3% of the time.

So we can test this more thoroughly, I'd like everyone who did control samples to send me the number correct guesses they made (i don't really need the actual results).  Then we calculate a mean+standard deviation and see if BH's result is significantly above the avg.  If a few of you also want send me the number of correctly guessed numbers then  I can do a similar test on that result.

thanks,

edd

So, in other words, in both cases he predicted the statistical norm.  I'd do precisely as well drawing numbers out of my arse.

So much for "magickque".

[BabylonHoruv]

it doesn't look like Babylon was significantly better than anyone else (if you notice, Thurnez beat him);

considering I chose from looking at 100 random porn jpgs, and testing if it gave me a slight stiffy
that doesn't bear well

That sounds like magic to me.


Sorry everyone for not managing to pull impressive magic out.  Not that it is any real excuse but I was at the beginning of one of the worst bouts of physical illness I can remember.

And thank you LMNO for setting this up and putting in the work to figure out the statistics and whatnot.  I think 21% dead on might be statistically significant, since the chance of getting it dead on purely randomly is more like 16.6 but thgat could also just be wishful thinking on my part.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

it doesn't look like Babylon was significantly better than anyone else (if you notice, Thurnez beat him);

considering I chose from looking at 100 random porn jpgs, and testing if it gave me a slight stiffy
that doesn't bear well

That sounds like magic to me.


Sorry everyone for not managing to pull impressive magic out.  Not that it is any real excuse but I was at the beginning of one of the worst bouts of physical illness I can remember.

And thank you LMNO for setting this up and putting in the work to figure out the statistics and whatnot.  I think 21% dead on might be statistically significant, since the chance of getting it dead on purely randomly is more like 16.6 but thgat could also just be wishful thinking on my part.

Don't worry about it.  You're hardly the first Mahdgjickque freak to be made a total fool of discredited.

[LMNO]

Babylon, if you want to try another experiment, let me know.

[Cramulus]

in a sample of only 100 tosses, the difference between 16.6% and 21% correct is covered by random chance. You're only beating the average by four guesses.

what are your thoughts on this BH?

it sounds like you're attributing the numbers to your illness - if you think that's the case, we certainly could rerun this experiment later when you're healthy.

I'm curious if the results have changed your mind about your abilities or if you have another explanation for what happened.


My hat is off to you for putting your money where your mouth is and allowing us to test your hypothesis.

[Telarus]

Needs to be repeated. Probably at least 5 times.

"Mysticism derives from the Greek root mu, which means silent or mute. In ancient Greece, the adjective mystikos referred to secrets revealed only to those initiated into esoteric sects; mystical knowledge was that which should not be revealed. Over time, mystical knowledge came to be defined as that which transcends language and so cannot be revealed." -(Wouldn't You Like to Know....)

[BabylonHoruv]

in a sample of only 100 tosses, the difference between 16.6% and 21% correct is covered by random chance. You're only beating the average by four guesses.

what are your thoughts on this BH?

it sounds like you're attributing the numbers to your illness - if you think that's the case, we certainly could rerun this experiment later when you're healthy.

I'm curious if the results have changed your mind about your abilities or if you have another explanation for what happened.


My hat is off to you for putting your money where your mouth is and allowing us to test your hypothesis.

Four guesses is approx 1/4 of 16%  so that comes in right at my 25% figure.

You are right though, that isn't really statistically significant out of 100 rolls of the die.

I might try it again another time when I am feeling better, but I think I am leaning toward the idea put up by a few others that guessing die rolls is not a very useful (or possible) use of magic.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I might try it again another time when I am feeling better, but I think I am leaning toward the idea put up by a few others that guessing die rolls is not a very useful (or possible) use of magic.

Yeah.  A few more experiments and you might pursue this line of thought to its inevitable conclusion.