An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

[LMNO]

I'm not understanding the need for the 66% part of things. Is it just an artificial constriction, or is there something significant statistically or mathematically regarding the 2/3 thing? All it really seems to be doing is artificially inflating the number of probable hits, which was confirmed in the 45 "both" results.

The 2/3 is to accomodate Babylon's pre-conditions.  He claimed that his kind of Magick worked better when given a 66% chance to be right, rather than 50/50.

There are a ton of already-in-existence tests and methods for determining accuracy of predictions, like the Zener Cards (here is an online card test for those interested in seeing the style). Why are we reinventing the wheel, and only using statistically meaningless sample sizes? Only 100 rolls/cards/whatever is FAR too small a sample size to determine any meaning beyond "random luck", especially with the results being weighed towards so many potential hits via the 1-4/3-6 methodology.

It's a neat parlor trick, I guess, but I'm having trouble figuring out what this might actually show, other than that random chance is, in fact, random.

As I stated at the beginning of the thread, if anyone has a better idea of how to generate a good test with a 66% chance of being right, I'll gladly substitute that method in it's place.

[Cramulus]

oh there's this: http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/


"Retropsychokinesis is the claimed ability of certain subjects to alter random data generated, but not examined, prior to the time the data are presented to the subject.... We neither accept nor dismiss the existence of retropsychokinetic effects—instead we make experiments available to anybody with access to the World-Wide Web in order to discover if there is anything genuinely there."

[LMNO]

oh there's this: http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/


"Retropsychokinesis is the claimed ability of certain subjects to alter random data generated, but not examined, prior to the time the data are presented to the subject.... We neither accept nor dismiss the existence of retropsychokinetic effects—instead we make experiments available to anybody with access to the World-Wide Web in order to discover if there is anything genuinely there."

Cool, I'll see if anything applies.


Also,

I suppose it's time for me to re-check the figures myself. They're all posted ITT, right?

Spreadsheet with all results here: http://ifile.it/zojq5a3

[Cramulus]

it's interesting. I used to take a retroPK test every morning as part of my wakeup routine.

It produces output like this:

[Fuquad]

I'm still confused as to why it needs to be prediction and not be the changing the percentages of occurrence.

[LMNO]

Please explain the difference in the end result.

[Golden Applesauce]

We could do that 3 doors, 2 goats, and 1 car game.  Y'know, the one where you pick a door, and are shown a goat in one of the other two doors, then can choose to switch doors (with the 3rd, unopened door) or not.  The object is to pick the car, as it's worth more than a goat.

You can get a 2/3rds chance of winning out of that, easy.  (Which isn't bad, since common sense says you should only get 1/3 or 1/2 cars.)

[AFK]

Can I be Monty Hall? 

[Mangrove]

Side Point: (Made in relation to James Randi earlier on in the discussion).

James Randi is not actually a scientist. He's a former stage magician.

I don't think Randi would ever give up $1 million dollars to anyone now matter how much evidence they provided. If the research was on any phenomena that Randi says doesn't exist, then I doubt he would ever present someone with one of those big cardboard checks.

Randi paying up the cash is about as likely as the Vatican explaining that that Bible is a really badly compiled volume of Middle Eastern mythology.

(Dean Radin observed that the amount of time & money you would need to conduct a well controlled study would cost more than the prize money. Even in the extremely unlikely event that JR accepted the findings, you'd still be out of pocket.)

Impressing some dude who used do card tricks and saw women in half on stage should not be considered a benchmark for scientific credibility.

[Iason Ouabache]

You can look at the Challenge yourself. 

http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge.html

The Foundation is committed to providing reliable information about paranormal claims. It both supports and conducts original research into such claims.

At JREF, we offer a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event. The JREF does not involve itself in the testing procedure, other than helping to design the protocol and approving the conditions under which a test will take place. All tests are designed with the participation and approval of the applicant. In most cases, the applicant will be asked to perform a relatively simple preliminary test of the claim, which if successful, will be followed by the formal test. Preliminary tests are usually conducted by associates of the JREF at the site where the applicant lives. Upon success in the preliminary testing process, the "applicant" becomes a "claimant."

To date, no one has passed the preliminary tests.

I don't see anything fishy there. To test claims of supernatural powers they ask claimant what they can do under what circumstances. They then run a preliminary test with protocols agreed upon by everyone. It's not their fault that no one can get past the prelims.

[Telarus]

++approving the conditions under which a test will take place.++

This is the +5 magic club that Randi wields.

[Iason Ouabache]

Well, sure. That is what the people who don't really have supernatural powers will say.  However, if you read the FAQs:

http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/component/content/article/37-static/254-jref-challenge-faq.html

Neither the Foundation nor the claimant can force a testing procedure without the approval of the other side. The testing procedure is a negotiation, and no one can put their foot down. If at any time it a deadlock is reached, the application process will be terminated, and neither side will be blamed or considered at fault.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

++approving the conditions under which a test will take place.++

This is the +5 magic club that Randi wields.

Nope there's no such thing as anything that can't be easily cataloged and explained... haven't you been reading the really real Discordian view of Magic Telarus? It's not real, doesn't exist and there's nothing more to talk about. 

[Cain]

Speaking of reductionist worldviews...

[Iason Ouabache]

++approving the conditions under which a test will take place.++

This is the +5 magic club that Randi wields.

Nope there's no such thing as anything that can't be easily cataloged and explained... haven't you been reading the really real Discordian view of Magic Telarus? It's not real, doesn't exist and there's nothing more to talk about. 

If your magical powers suddenly don't work any time they are placed under scrutiny then they aren't very useful in the real world, are they? Sure you can find all kinds of ways to mindfuck yourself and make yourself think that you are riding a unicorn with Jesus but that doesn't do anything to the objective world.

Magic is real for very narrow definitions of "magic" and "real".