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Do you hear that? Its the sound of American hegemony, being flushed away

Started by Cain, August 31, 2009, 03:26:20 PM

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Cain

August 31, 2009, 03:26:20 PM
Democratic Party wins in Japan, plans to "normalise" its military, plots "more independent" foreign policy and "closer relations" with North Asia (read: refuses to be American regional lackey).

Tories almost certain to win UK elections next year, Neocons in party will overpower Cameron's liberal conservatives (who mostly exist for their cuddly PR benefits) and decry Obama's "multilateralism", whilst cutting social services to fund "full-spectrum" military capabilities.

Australian strategists and old China hands under Kevin Rudd call for a closer Australian relationship with China, "between China and America" to help mediate the former's rise to power, while protecting Australian interests.

Afghanistan: lost.

Iraq: failed state under Iranian control.

Israel: run by Likudnik maniacs who have more in common with the Neoconservatives coming to power in Britain than the American foreign policy establishment now under Obama.

Canada: who?

Germany: falling ever further into the Russian sphere of influence.

Georgia: rump state only allowed existence at the sufference of the energy/crime cartel with an army fomerly known as "Russia".

Well, 1945-2005 was a pretty good run, considering the challenges at the time.

The Good Reverend Roger

#1
August 31, 2009, 03:30:12 PM
Just keep buying our weapons.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

East Coast Hustle

#2
August 31, 2009, 03:31:28 PM
60 years? that's pretty sad given how long even wussy eurospag countries like Spain kept hold of their empires.
Rabid Colostomy Hole Jammer of the Coming Apocalypse™

The Devil is in the details; God is in the nuance.


Some yahoo yelled at me, saying 'GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH', and I thought, "I'm feeling generous today.  Why not BOTH?"

Cain

#3
August 31, 2009, 03:46:04 PM
Well, you can probably add another 40 years, whilst China broods and whines petulantly about its sovereignty.  Multipolarity will be the name of the game, and champagne bottles will be opened in celebration in Paris and Beijing.

And there is always the chance for recovery.  Its not like the Beijing leadership are geniuses, all they've proven lately is they are "smarter than Bush", which is a claim dead things on the bottom of my pond can also make.  It might be they'll fluff it too, giving America a second chance.  After all, unless the country falls apart, its still gonna be a great power, just no more great than anyone else.

But it'll take some humiliation and rethinking amongst the foreign policy elites to even consider changing their current, futile actions.

Cramulus

#4
August 31, 2009, 04:42:24 PM
wait a sec


Since when does Japan have a military??

The Good Reverend Roger

#5
August 31, 2009, 04:48:03 PM
Quote from: Gramulus on August 31, 2009, 04:42:24 PM
wait a sec


Since when does Japan have a military??

De Jure?  It doesn't.

De Facto?  Pretty much the last 20 years.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Cain

#6
August 31, 2009, 04:50:29 PM
Yeah, they've got a Self-Defence Force.  They don't call it a military, and its not run under strict military rules (ie you can leave whenever you want), but its been dispatched to places like Afghanistan before now.  Plus, the government office responsible for funding and running the Self-Defence Force was upgraded to a Ministry under the previous administration.

They just slowly creep up the funding (along with the patriotic rhetoric, via history books and the like) every year or so.  Fait d'accompli.

The Good Reverend Roger

#7
August 31, 2009, 04:56:51 PM
Quote from: Cain on August 31, 2009, 04:50:29 PM
Yeah, they've got a Self-Defence Force.  They don't call it a military, and its not run under strict military rules (ie you can leave whenever you want), but its been dispatched to places like Afghanistan before now.  Plus, the government office responsible for funding and running the Self-Defence Force was upgraded to a Ministry under the previous administration.

They just slowly creep up the funding (along with the patriotic rhetoric, via history books and the like) every year or so.  Fait d'accompli.

Doesn't matter.  I'm reasonably certain they aren't going to try any more nonsense (they're smarter than us, and know that wars don't actually make money)...and if I were across a narrow body of water from North Korea, I'd have a military, and America could kiss my ass if they didn't like it.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Cramulus

#8
August 31, 2009, 05:00:39 PM
IIRC they have our military over there. Japan's considered it a win/win because they can focus their economy on commerce while America foots the bill for defense. Hence their explosive rise to economic power in the 80s.

very interesting developments...

The Good Reverend Roger

#9
August 31, 2009, 05:03:51 PM
Quote from: Gramulus on August 31, 2009, 05:00:39 PM
IIRC they have our military over there. Japan's considered it a win/win because they can focus their economy on commerce while America foots the bill for defense. Hence their explosive rise to economic power in the 80s.

very interesting developments...

During the Bush administration, the Japanese decided that we can't be trusted with their defense, as we tend to bog ourselves down in useless wars...more to the point, useless wars in the ME that don't deliver cash to the Okinawan economy, as Vietnam did.

It is interesting to note, though, that a country which has a decent population base and no military bills to speak of gets richer than hell.

There's a lesson in there, but I don't expect the primates to understand it.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Cain

#10
August 31, 2009, 05:07:21 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on August 31, 2009, 04:56:51 PMDoesn't matter.  I'm reasonably certain they aren't going to try any more nonsense (they're smarter than us, and know that wars don't actually make money)...and if I were across a narrow body of water from North Korea, I'd have a military, and America could kiss my ass if they didn't like it.

I agree with that analysis.  The Japanese certainly aren't stupid...though PM Abe's courting of the few remaining nationalistic (read: fascistic) groups was pretty troubling, for a while.  But the new guys certainly aren't much that way inclined - they're a motely crew of socialists, liberals and right-wing free marketers and, as you say, know that war is bad for business.  Almost as bad as the cronyism and political paralysis that has beset Japan over the past few years.

Quote from: Gramulus on August 31, 2009, 05:00:39 PM
IIRC they have our military over there. Japan's considered it a win/win because they can focus their economy on commerce while America foots the bill for defense. Hence their explosive rise to economic power in the 80s.

very interesting developments...

They do, though the new guys, the DPJ, have considered asking some to leave.  Germany was very much the same, hell, most of Europe was much of the same.  The US considered it a win/win, since it also meant that their allies wouldn't be tempted to build up their own forces, and thus chart a much more independent foreign policy.  I'm sure John Mearsheimer was screaming something about translating economic prowess into military might at the strategic planners in the DoD and State Dept, but no-one listens to that crazy old coot anyhow.

Thurnez Isa

#11
August 31, 2009, 05:28:34 PM
Quote from: Gramulus on August 31, 2009, 04:42:24 PM
wait a sec


Since when does Japan have a military??

since Godzilla attacked in 1954
Through me the way to the city of woe, Through me the way to everlasting pain, Through me the way among the lost.
Justice moved my maker on high.
Divine power made me, Wisdom supreme, and Primal love.
Before me nothing was but things eternal, and eternal I endure.
Abandon all hope, you who enter here.
Dante

Cain

#12
September 10, 2009, 07:09:41 PM
I like Matt Yglesias, as a rule.  But sometimes, he does say some very foolish things without realising it:

QuoteI would say the crucial issue here is that at the end of the day objective reality mattered much more to the Soviet Union than did the subjective feelings of the mujahedeen. The Soviet economy was actually dysfunctional. Popular resentment in the satellite states of Eastern Europe was running high. The regime lacked legitimacy. Ultimately all this proved much more important to the fate of the USSR than anything that happened in Afghanistan.

Fortunately, the United States is in much better shape than the USSR was.

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