Political quotes of the moment

[Cain]

Incidentally, interbutts rumours suggest intelligence provided by Bin Laden's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, may have been instrumental in Bin Laden's assassination.

Since Zawahiri is living free, and was the man who convinced Bin Laden to pursue the strategy of global jihad against the USA (and indeed, was something of a mentor to Bin Laden), this means his death probably wasn't a case of "killing someone as part of a strategic campaign to dissolve Al-Qaeda" and more like "a vicious and cunning second-in-command uses his enemies to bump off his largely symbolic and ineffective leader in order to manouvere his own chosen candidate into the spotlight".

Who that candidate is remains to be seen, though before his death Syed Saleem Shahzad had several good ideas.

[LMNO]

"A Game of Thrones - IRL Edition"

[Disco Pickle]

Yowch.  Is this Lo5, or is there good evidence that these are systematic assasinations for the benefit of Israel?

The way that Netanyahu is acting doesn't seem to jibe.

There is no good evidence assassination per se as a tactic is useful in combating terrorism.

Is he being facetious?  I honestly can't tell.  

Yes, he is.  In the article he is mocking the American government's addiction to assassination as a "solution" by pointing out it doesn't actually work for one of the world's greatest exporters of state-sponsored assassination.

The simple fact is asssassination only works if the next guy in the chain of command is your guy, or is going to do things in such a way that benefit you.  I'm an advocate of a quick knife in the ribs or sniper rifle as anyone...but only when it will actually work.  Otherwise, it is fairly useless and to be honest, introduces a level of instability and unpredictability into what may be an otherwise predictable group (see: South Vietnam, where Diem's assassination meant eventually that the Presidency was up for grabs by any general with enough loyal thugs and caused massive shifts in war and domestic policy every time a coup was launched).

on a good re-read it's a deal more clear that's the case as he mentions them taking out the top guy, which then necessitates taking out his successor, etc. etc. on down the line with what must be some faint hope that eventually the Hydra will stop growing heads.  I could see some merit in the tactic of attaching a psychological aspect to taking the helm of these groups = it will be the last thing you ever do, and you'll never see it coming.  If you're consistent in assassinating whoever steps into the boots, there being no "maybe" but a "we will do this every single time someone steps forward and assumes control" then maybe, eventually, no one will be willing to do it.  

But the likely reality is what you've already said: You can't predict their actions from one person to the next, and likely someone is directing but it becomes less and less centrally directed until you're never sure who is telling who what the targets are.

[Cain]

The thing is, most terrorists view themselves as warriors anyway, so while they want to avoid death, at some level they accept it could happen and are mentally prepared for it.  They're not going to go out and try and get themselves killed, not if they can find a way to avoid it, but if they have to die, they're going to try and go down fighting.

That's why I found the propaganda about Bin Laden cowering and pleading for his life so hard to credit - people forget towards the end of the Afghan occupation by the Soviets, he took to the front lines and was involved in some of the most brutal fighting there.  A man willing to take up arms against the Red Army at its most brutal probably isn't especially fazed by Special Forces breaking into his place.

[Slyph]

The thing is, most terrorists view themselves as warriors anyway, so while they want to avoid death, at some level they accept it could happen and are mentally prepared for it.  They're not going to go out and try and get themselves killed, not if they can find a way to avoid it, but if they have to die, they're going to try and go down fighting.

That's why I found the propaganda about Bin Laden cowering and pleading for his life so hard to credit - people forget towards the end of the Afghan occupation by the Soviets, he took to the front lines and was involved in some of the most brutal fighting there.  A man willing to take up arms against the Red Army at its most brutal probably isn't especially fazed by Special Forces breaking into his place.

You reminded me of this: http://www.slate.com/id/1008268/

In truth, notions of "cowardice" and "bravery" are entirely irrelevant when we contemplate the horrors of terrorism. To call a terrorist "cowardly" is to substitute testosterone for morality. Somehow it isn't enough to abhor an act of terrorism or even to promise to make the terrorist pay dearly. The rules demand that the terrorist be branded a sissy. This is not only a childish reflex, but one that weakens the moral force of the condemnation and thereby dishonors terrorism's victims. After all, we don't want brave people to slaughter innocent people any more than we want cowardly people to do so. Still, the public seems to demand that our presidents call terrorists cowards, and our presidents are too--well, cowardly--to deny them.

[Cain]

He's 100% correct.  It is propaganda, nothing more.  Good enough to get the home crowd fired up, I suppose, but utterly useless if you want to know the reality of the situation.

[Cain]

LOL NO

The United States gains a great ally with the birth of the Republic of Southern Sudan.

Just like America's other great allies - you know, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Libya, Egypt etc etc

I wonder how pissed the guys at the FCO and in Quai d'Orsay get, every time some tinpot third world dictator gets compared to the trans-atlantic alliance, implicitly or otherwise?

[Cain]

Also

If the last decade should have taught Americans anything, it should have taught them that contemporary American can't predict the future. However, the correct solution (stop treating false prophecy as gospel) has been widely ignored in favor of the wrong solution (bet everything on false prophecy, only this time more aggressively). Just yesterday, we once again saw U.S. financial markets tumble because a significant number of investors had gambled, wrongly, on predictions of higher unemployment being in its last throes. Billions are lost and made based on the illusion that Benjamin S. Bernanke of Washington, D.C. is any better at predicting U.S. economic indicators than John X. Smith of Duluth, Iowa.

[LMNO]

They just don't have enough confidence.

[Cain]

Indeed.

There is actually a well established political science study which shows professional "futurologists" and other experts (historians, economists, political scientists) make guesses no better than the general population about future trends, when averaged out. 

I like to think my average is somewhat higher, but I make so many contradictory predictions and haven't mathematically broken them down, so I couldn't honestly say.

[BadBeast]

""I can stand here and ask questions about Tom Baldwin, but I think the public want us to rise above this".

David Cameron, scrabbling to keep his head above water.

[Cain]

""I can stand here and ask questions about Tom Baldwin, but I think the public want us to rise above this".

David Cameron, scrabbling to keep his head above water.

Yeah.  As a self-appointed spokesman for the public, I would like to wallow in this, get outraged over every gritty detail, drag it out for as long as possible and make every fucker pay.

Voice of the People, innit?

[BadBeast]

Actually David, (Or shall I call you "Dave"?)    I think the public would have preferred it, if you had "risen above it" at some point before you agreed to suck the festering old cock ofRobert Maxwell Roo part- Murdoch.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Actually David, (Or shall I call you "Dave"?)    I think the public would have preferred it, if you had "risen above it" at some point before you agreed to suck the festering old cock ofRobert Maxwell Roo part- Murdoch.

If he'd done that the public would never have heard of him in the first place so they couldn't very well prefer it. Woulda caused a rift or fart in the space time continuum or something

[BadBeast]

No doubt someone else would have risen to the occasion. Maybe Boris would have challenged Cameron for Party Leader, and ended up PM. Then Mandelson would have waltzed back into the Labour opposition, like butter wouldn't melt in that stinkhole of a mouth of his. Just in time to challenge for Leadership before the next election.

You were right in the first place. We're fucked five ways 'til Friday, whichever contingent of Lizards are currently slithering through the carpeted corridors of Whitehall, and the cold, stone flags of Westminster. I say let's burn the whole fuckin' show down now, and be done with it. Flush those fuckers out like a nest of vampire rats, and feed them to the Belgians. Elect David Icke as King, and cut all ties to the rest of the World. Soon they will forget we are here, and that's the time to strike. From the mists of nowhere, We shall rise, to dominate the World and once more take our rightful place at the helm of Good Ship Empire!  Who's with me on this?