Iran: UAE Frowns Upon Your Nuclear Program

[Zyzyx]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bernardhenri-levy/the-arab-world-against-ah_b_636952.html

Anyone else see this coming? Or is this French-type simply talking for the sake of it?

[Cain]

Well, it is Bernard-Henri Levy, so the second part probably isn't to far off.

Also, it's not a huge surprise that the Gulf Oil Sheikhs have a de facto alliance with the USA and Israel against Iran.  The real fear over an Iranian weapons program isn't that Jerusalem gets nuked, but a seal is put on Iran's hegemony in the Eastern Middle East.  Israel and Turkey used to had the Levant pretty tightly locked up, but since the Israelis apparently cannot fight worth a damn now and the Turks no longer get along with them, plus Iran having major influence over the Iraqi government, the fear is the Islamic Republic will eclipse the US-centric status quo, which now means US allies are scrabbling to do something, anything, to stop the process.

The only interesting thing is the public declaration of this.  Both the Iranians and Americans have been doing secret diplomacy via the UAE for a couple of years now.  Possibly there has been a definite shift in policy of late against Iran and the Emirates were chosen to deliver the message because reacting militarily against the UAE is impossible - everyone from Al-Qaeda to the CIA to Pakistani gangs in Mumbai launders their money in Dubai.  It'd be the equivalent of invading Switzerland, economically.

[Zyzyx]

Very interesting, Cain.

I like this guy's tone: "Well, while the Americans are sitting around with their thumbs up the national ass, we in the /real/ world are talking about /actual/ issues." Wonder how far off he really is. Or maybe there's a good reason we're not hearing much about this?

[Cain]

Well, America is involved, but it's kind of hush-hush on both their and Iran's part, since neither officially recognize each other as anything except the Great Satan of our times.  Ali Lanjiri, who was the head of the Iranian National Security Council clocked up a LOT of frequent flyer miles in the Arab world in 2006-8 and I'm pretty sure he knew whatever he was saying to America's Arab allies would get back to the White House one way or another.  And vice-versa when those Arab officials then talked with Lanjiri again.

Things might've changed though, with a new person in the White House and Lanjiri being shunted around the Iranian political scene a fair bit.  I do know that, when Turkey and Brazil managed to agree a deal with Iran for out of country uranium enrichment, the response from DC wasn't so much "well done" as "what the fuck are you doing?"  Which makes me think Iran is being purposefully kept on the backburner as a potential problem, if the economy continues to dive.  At the moment, the only sort of economic stimulus that is actually acceptable in the States is military Keynesianism and...well, look how much got handed out in Iraq, a country a third of the size of Iran, and far further weakened by economic and military blockade.

That's just a pet theory, however.

Also, Levy is known for having a rather grandiose opinion of himself and his part in The Great Struggle Of Our Times (AKA the War on Terror), so he may just be downplaying the US role in order to inflate his own ego.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

The US not acknowledging it also has the added benefit of showing that this was the UAE's decision and not ours.