Werewolf III

[bds]

To be fair, lynching without serious evidence isn't really a sensible move at this point.

Assuming there's a kill tonight, we'll be 7-3 down. If we hit the sibling next, that's 6-2, assuming one more kill 5-2. We then have one lynch to play with, if we fuck that up we're screwed.

So basically, we've almost got to lynch a non-sibling wolf in the next two lynches.

[Jasper]

You explained it a lot better, BDS.  We've got to make this one count.

So we start with what we know.   Namely, this:

Note: You didn't do anything to get on this list besides stay alive and not have Enrico scan you.

1. Doktor Howl
2. Horrendous Foreign Liam Stoat
3. Risus
4. Rumckle
5. Sigmatic
6. Requia
7. Jason Wabash
8. Mistress Freeky
9. Dimo
10. Pariah
11. Traffic

And, dubious as it is, we also have the PM Lysergic sent us when he was claiming to be the psychic.

Hmm I've been doing some thinking, and here are my list of people who seem suspicious in one way or another to me... Enrico, Dimo, TGRR, and 000 are the most suspicious to me atm, where as I'm starting to think I'm pretty sure Traffic, Pariah, Risus and Reqiua seem ok, although I can't help but be a bit suspicious of Risus and Requia atm...

Who do you think I should check next?

[Traffic]

freeky has a 1/12 chance of being a wolf. Thats about 8-9%, which is more than everyone else.

Gambler's fallacy, much?

Indeed, but thats how probability works. I'm not here to start a big ol' argument and am willing to agree that at the "percentages" I provided won't make a big difference whether I'm right or wrong- there would have to be additional evidence as well as the stats.

But then again, I really doubt that anyone here is going to give away anything from this point on- everyone has worked out how to act and how not to act- if nothing else, everyone will just act as they have previously to avoid a lynch, and we'll have no leads whatsoever.
And providing we continue to base solely on random guesses, we will end up losing.

So I dunno. If anyone was saving any plane tickets to somewhere less "Wolfy", now might be the time to find them.

[Traffic]

And to be honest, I want dimo's pm from lys to be copy-pasted here before I stop doubting him, along with the pm which Lys sent around after being lynched.

[bds]

Note: You didn't do anything to get on this list besides stay alive and not have Enrico scan you.

1. Doktor Howl
2. Horrendous Foreign Liam Stoat
3. Risus
4. Rumckle
5. Sigmatic
6. Requia
7. Jason Wabash
8. Mistress Freeky
9. Dimo
11. Traffic

Unfortunately, as far as I'm concerned there are reasons for suspecting everyone on this list, depending entirely on what you consider "wolfy" behaviour.

Both HLFS and Jason Wabash have been inactive, at least in this thread, though. If another kill is missed, these would be suspicious to me. (NOTE: Unless the wolf that missed the kill is already dead... Anyone?)

[Jasper]

I think we're all pretty sure about that one.  If you look back, we lynched Lysergic because he hadn't logged in until the moment after a wolf missed their kill deadline, and it turned out he was a wolf.  So we are pretty sure Lys was that wolf.

[Traffic]

Yes. It was Lysergic.

[Doktor Howl]

Way to throw me under the bus as soon as somebody offhandedly says it's me OR you, by the way.

A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.  

Plus, I had already voted to lynch you.

[Doktor Howl]

Note: You didn't do anything to get on this list besides stay alive and not have Enrico scan you.

1. Doktor Howl
2. Horrendous Foreign Liam Stoat
3. Risus
4. Rumckle
5. Sigmatic
6. Requia
7. Jason Wabash
8. Mistress Freeky
9. Dimo
11. Traffic

Unfortunately, as far as I'm concerned there are reasons for suspecting everyone on this list, depending entirely on what you consider "wolfy" behaviour.

Both HLFS and Jason Wabash have been inactive, at least in this thread, though. If another kill is missed, these would be suspicious to me. (NOTE: Unless the wolf that missed the kill is already dead... Anyone?)

HFLS has flounced from PD, and Jason is by definition a bad person, and probably a wolf.

[bds]

Well in that case we can assume HLFS is not lycanthropic. Iason logged in today, so he's not off the hook. That leaves us a menu of:

1. Doktor Howl
2. Risus
3. Rumckle
4. Sigmatic
5. Requia
6. Mistress Freeky
7. Dimo
8. Traffic
9. Iason Ouabache.


Anyone look particularly appetising?

[Dimocritus]

And to be honest, I want dimo's pm from lys to be copy-pasted here before I stop doubting him, along with the pm which Lys sent around after being lynched.

Please to be reading moar.

Now I'm definitely a bit suspicious of traffic.  He keeps changing his stance and grasping at minuscule hints.

But he does raise an interesting question.  How many of us did get a PM from Lys?  I did.

I didn't, but I did get a PM from Enrico telling me that he was the psychic, So, with Lys's fraudulent claim coming right after his missed kill/prolonged absence, it seemed like a sure thing in my mind. Nice try, Traffic.

Plus, like I said before, Lys is a "mentalist" and anything that he said should be, generally, disregarded as he no doubt said everything with the attempt to mislead and confuse.

[Dimocritus]

Well in that case we can assume HLFS is not lycanthropic. Iason logged in today, so he's not off the hook. That leaves us a menu of:

1. Doktor Howl
2. Risus
3. Rumckle
4. Sigmatic
5. Requia
6. Mistress Freeky
7. Dimo
8. Traffic
9. Iason Ouabache.


Anyone look particularly appetising?

So, you narrowed it down to... pretty much everybody that's still here? 

Way to go sherlock 

[bds]

Well, I was trying to start from the beginning, from a level headed pointed of view, so we can weigh up some actual evidence and possibly make a sensible and informed decision about who to lynch, if anybody.

But hey, guess you enjoy flinging shit aimlessly at random passers by. Don't let me get in your way now, carry on.

[Dimocritus]

Well, I was trying to start from the beginning, from a level headed pointed of view, so we can weigh up some actual evidence and possibly make a sensible and informed decision about who to lynch, if anybody.

But hey, guess you enjoy flinging shit aimlessly at random passers by. Don't let me get in your way now, carry on.

Based on what we've layed out so far, Iason is on the top of my list. He's been absent/shady and even if he's not a wolf, it's not like he's doing us any good alive (how often has he even voted?). Though, I'm gonna follow sig for now, and wait to cast a vote on anyone. Whoever gets eaten tonight may change things a bit.

[Jasper]

Jason has laid pretty low throughout the game.  Mostly only posts to cast votes, never really gets too vocal.  Hmm...