Werewolf III

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Mistress Freeky- has a fair of being an antagonist, the way I see it.

There was a 1/6 chance of being a wolf in the previous game.

There is a roughly 1/4 chance of being an antagonist in this game.

that gives the wolves who carried onto this game a 1/24 chance of being bad guys again.
And there are two people in this situation, Semaj and Freeky, and we know semaj ISN'T a wolf which means freeky has a 1/12 chance of being a wolf. Thats about 8-9%, which is more than everyone else.

However, statistics have been known for their horrible lies.

[bds]

So, nearly 50%, huh? 

Also, damn right you're lying. Nice try, but I ain't buying that.

[The Wizard]

(groan suggesting that you either lynch Howl or Siggy)

[Doktor Howl]

(groan suggesting that you either lynch Howl or Siggy)

Siggy has become painfully honest.

I won't be around til late tonight, so put me down for

Siggy 1.

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So, nearly 50%, huh? 

Also, damn right you're lying. Nice try, but I ain't buying that.

Actually yes. 60% more likely than everyone else. And I wouldnt say a miss of about 10% is bad seeings as the first time I considered this I was calculating it in my head.
Everyone else = 5%.
MF = 8%.

[bds]

Nice save, honey.

Buuut, being a wolf in a previous game has no bearing on you being a wolf in this game, seeing as how both were generated randomly according to Remington.

[Jasper]

I'm thinking Siggie.  He's way too gleeful about this.

Yeah, and you're just Mr. Reluctant. 

OH YOU WILL BE!
YOU'LL ALL BE SORRY

OH NO WE WON'T

I'm not surprised to be under suspicion after campaigning against pariah, but it's not like I was guessing irresponsibly.  I really thought he might be a wolf.

We can't keep on helping the werewolves, even if it means not lynching someone every single day.  At this point, the MO "any lynch is better than no lynch" that we've been using is no longer smart.  I'm not going to vote so soon anymore, and anyone trying to hurry a lynch at this point is kind of suspicious, because that's the thinking that put is where we are.

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Nice save, honey.

Buuut, being a wolf in a previous game has no bearing on you being a wolf in this game, seeing as how both were generated randomly according to Remington.

I didn't think it was possible to miss the point so horrendously, I even wrote out how I got the percentages.



The whole point of probability is to factor in randomness.

[bds]

Nice save, honey.

Buuut, being a wolf in a previous game has no bearing on you being a wolf in this game, seeing as how both were generated randomly according to Remington.

I didn't think it was possible to miss the point so horrendously, I even wrote out how I got the percentages.



The whole point of probability is to factor in randomness.

Probability =/= Evidence of lycanthropy, unfortunately.

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Nice save, honey.

Buuut, being a wolf in a previous game has no bearing on you being a wolf in this game, seeing as how both were generated randomly according to Remington.

I didn't think it was possible to miss the point so horrendously, I even wrote out how I got the percentages.



The whole point of probability is to factor in randomness.

Probability =/= Evidence of lycanthropy, unfortunately.

Who said it was?

[bds]

Presumably nobody, but I'm still right.

It seems ridiculous to suspect somebody based on probability statistics you pulled outta your ass. Not really saying you're wrong, but there's a reason "probability" has "babble" in the middle of it.

[Jasper]

freeky has a 1/12 chance of being a wolf. Thats about 8-9%, which is more than everyone else.

Gambler's fallacy, much?

[bds]

freeky has a 1/12 chance of being a wolf. Thats about 8-9%, which is more than everyone else.

Gambler's fallacy, much?

And that's the intelligent counter I was looking for.

[Doktor Howl]

I'm thinking Siggie.  He's way too gleeful about this.

Yeah, and you're just Mr. Reluctant. 

OH YOU WILL BE!
YOU'LL ALL BE SORRY

OH NO WE WON'T

I'm not surprised to be under suspicion after campaigning against pariah, but it's not like I was guessing irresponsibly.  I really thought he might be a wolf.

We can't keep on helping the werewolves, even if it means not lynching someone every single day.  At this point, the MO "any lynch is better than no lynch" that we've been using is no longer smart.  I'm not going to vote so soon anymore, and anyone trying to hurry a lynch at this point is kind of suspicious, because that's the thinking that put is where we are.

You're just saying that so you can feed on us with impugnity.

[Jasper]

I'm saying it because we can't afford to lynch the wrong people anymore.  We don't have a good enough lead to take any more shots in the dark.

Way to throw me under the bus as soon as somebody offhandedly says it's me OR you, by the way.