Author Topic: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?  (Read 88936 times)


Junkenstein

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1306 on: June 03, 2019, 08:27:38 am »
Current bets on next leader? I assume raab/Boris/gove out of running in a few weeks, probably thinning the herd in the process. Horrible feeling loathsome may take it as a second coming of Thatcher that was mentioned in revelations. McVey appears to some as a possibility, but she made the mistake of attacking the gay community instead of them who ain't from round here, you know, them. Amateur mistake. Fyi, bookies have Boris to win, odds on. 2/1 he also withdraws or is otherwise out in week 1. Evens, before round 1 voting. Which is interesting and indicative of overall real chance.

Kind of amazing that anyone wants the poisoned chalice considering the may has been dying for years and has only been able to increase the toxicity.

Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1307 on: June 03, 2019, 10:39:26 am »
Gove's clearly positioning himself as the moderate choice against Boris.  The thing is, it might work. because despite being a backstabbing shit with deeply weird, neoconservative views on foreign policy and Muslims (who can forget Celsius 7/7, his horrible book on terrorism? Apparently, everyone in the UK), even Gove realises just how horrific a No Deal Brexit would be, and how leaving on good terms with the EU and making gestures of goodwill (taking the EU residency issues off the table, offering an easy path to UK citizenship for current EU residents) would start to make up for the past 3 years of toxic relations.

But Boris clearly has a high level of support among the looney wing of the party, who are increasingly horrified by Farage's success (and seem to assume Farage actually wants to seize power, instead of bitch incessantly from the sidelines) and especially the most recent poll which suggests if the Brexit Party ran in a general election it would wipe the Tories out.  So, the thinking goes, they need their own Farage to outflank him on the right and Boris, a man with no convictions and no shame is the perfect candidate for the job.

I have watched Rory Stewart's campaign with some interest, because even before this I had heard some promising things about his time in charge of Defra. After the disasters that were Caroline Spellman, Owen Paterson and Liz Truss, he brought some brigadier he knew from his Army days in to overhaul matters relating to flood defence and (perhaps more importantly) rebuild trust with the Environment Agency, whose relationship with Parliament was pretty hostile at the time, having been used as the whipping boy for every flood going while protesting cuts to existing defence structures. The brigadier, whose name escapes me, is very highly thought of in those circles and, to a lesser extent, Stewart is respected because he didn't run the agency on a shoestring budget and expect the impossible, and he rearranged budgets to focus more heavily on updating and preserving current structures.  In short, it's very much like his actual leadership campaign, he listens, has a conversation with you and is more or less open to reason and debate. As such, he has absolutely no chance in the race.

Junkenstein

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1308 on: June 28, 2019, 11:50:41 pm »
So, Boris and hunt then. With both still doing their paltry best at trying to sabotage Boris. To depressingly little effect.

Predictions on aftermath? I've heard a lot of panic about coalition governments for years, as though deal making and negotiation in politics is to be frowned on. Enforce your view exclusively or else chaos and terror.

Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1309 on: June 29, 2019, 12:33:46 am »
I'm hearing that if Boris tries to go full steam ahead on No Deal Brexit, Tory moderates will back a Labour VoNC on him.

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1310 on: July 02, 2019, 11:00:17 pm »
Do the Brexit faithful still believe that the UK can negotiate a better deal? They'll have new people to argue with now after all.

The only brexiteer I know is a guy in work who really really wants to be a subject again instead of a citizen, happily says he made his mind up 40 years ago when his parent were against joining the EEC, even though he lives and works in Ireland.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1311 on: July 03, 2019, 12:02:32 am »
They say they do, but the extent to which that is expediency under which to go for a No Deal Brexit at full steam is hard to say.

Also Johnson was involved in the negotiation of May's agreement, though to much lesser extent than Davis or Raab. But still...not that it matters, as the EU has said it won't renegotiate unless there are significant changes in the UK's position.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1312 on: July 03, 2019, 12:06:23 am »
They are playing musical chairs without any real plan other than saying "give us a better deal or we leave with nothing"

Ireland are likely to trigger the no deal scenario at the End of October.

I haven't posted much in this thread in a while because behind the scenes things have gotten really ugly.

The Irish "side" now feel it is probable that the UK won't commit to the backstop before no deal.

At the moment the Withdrawal agreement is majority vote (though I doubt the EU would vote against Ireland), and the trade deal can be vetoed.
What no one is talking about are the institutions the UK is automatically exiting in No deal.
ISEM for import and export of MW as required.
Euratom for radioisotopes for medicine and some manufacturing,
Open skies for flights
Europol for international arrest warrants and the database
Several agreements around the movement of cattle and food produce and recognition of standards that allow the Sale of said abroad.

Some of the above could technically be joined individually, but all all of the above have something in common, the members objection clause to new applicants.
The expectation is by using the objection and veto to keep a "lockout state" in play the UK will eventually have to return to negotiation and confront the backstop and Northern Ireland.

Ireland is going to suffer out of all this, but Ireland knows economic misery, we've just emerged from ten years of it, but the commitment to the North must come before all else, even if it takes the world economy with it.
There are rumblings from France as well that they wont allow another extension either.

Honestly I have become detached from reality on this, it is a soap opera, and until everyone feels the real world consequences of this none of this fiasco will feel real
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Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1313 on: July 04, 2019, 11:41:39 am »
Given previous statements from Johnson and the ERG, Ireland is very justified in its worries about the backstop not being upheld.

And that's what the No Dealers don't get. They think we can fail out and trade on the WTO with the EU  (which again, is responsible for half of UK exports and imports) while carrying out trade deals with the rest of the world, after having demonstrated we reneged on a deal with the EU (since Johnson is talking about witholding the £39 billion "divorce settlement" in the event of No Deal). It's madness, pure economic lunacy.

Not to mention the business sector is practically shitting itself at the moment. Between Boris "fuck business" Johnson, Jeremy "I would look a ruined businessman in the eyes and tell him it was worth it" Hunt and Jeremy Corbyn as future PMs, they consider themselves up shit creek sans paddle. And while I don't have a lot of sympathy for the banks, they can afford their moves to Frankfurt and Dublin. It's the small to mid-tier businesses that are going to be absolutely hammered by this.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1314 on: July 09, 2019, 11:52:27 pm »
A bill has been passed to allow NI to skip the election it has due (to continue propping up the tories), but the SNP etc highjacked it and added Gay marriage and abortion.
The DUP are likely howling on the moors right now, they can still stop this... By forming a government with Sinn Fein. So they either get the Irish Language act (and have to deal with brexit and the possibility of the backstop being put on them), or these. It's delightful.

NI is like a Bizarro world of the Republic: Over the last three years Ireland has voted in referendum to allow each of the said. NI now gets an election bill with an after thought of gay marriage and abortion forced upon it.
Narrator: In time you will know the tragic extent of my failings

May you find your worth in the waking world.