Principia Discordia > Aneristic Illusions

Picking Cain's Brains

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Junkenstein:
So, what's the current expectation on going back? I was guessing 5 years or so, but with a couple of bombs today in kabul I'm cutting that to under 3. One successful bombing on us/associates soil and its prime fodder for a particular kind of electioneering.

Cain:
Which cities are you referring to, Faust? I've tried looking but obviously there's a lot of Afghanistan news lately.

As for going back in...depends. I can't see Biden doing a U-turn, even in light of current events. I can see him launching drone strikes at whomever is deemed the responsible party...but in the longer term it will depend how much the Taliban pivot between their "responsible members of the international community with extreme views" and "actually supporting international terrorism and genocide" wings.

Faust:
I'm having trouble finding the original link and all I can find is India today but it was the same gist

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/afghanistan-taliban-latest-news-developments-kabul-airlift-biden-resistance-forces-recapture-districts-1843523-2021-08-21

Not sure if cities was the right word, or if its substatiated

Cain:
Ahah. Looks like Northern Alliance remnants. Or, well, younger siblings and sons and daughters of Northern Alliance remnants, since all of that was 20+ years ago.

I suspect Atta Mohammad Noor and Rashid Dostum, two of the most notorious Afghan warlords, are currently in Uzbekistan as well, though there's nothing to confirm this other than their last reported location ("north of Mazar-i-Sharif") and what they did in the previous conflicts and whenever they got into legal trouble.

Junkenstein:

--- Quote from: Cain on August 27, 2021, 05:23:05 pm ---Which cities are you referring to, Faust? I've tried looking but obviously there's a lot of Afghanistan news lately.

As for going back in...depends. I can't see Biden doing a U-turn, even in light of current events. I can see him launching drone strikes at whomever is deemed the responsible party...but in the longer term it will depend how much the Taliban pivot between their "responsible members of the international community with extreme views" and "actually supporting international terrorism and genocide" wings.

--- End quote ---

From the reports  of various arms, biometric data, aircraft etc. That got abandoned, it feels like 1 wing got a bit of bonus.

Is it just me that finds it incredible that not only has a 20 odd year conflict been totally lost, the fleeing nations have chosen to arm the erstwhile for to fuck on the way out? Realistically, if its a logistics problem and you just can't shift all your shit in time, moving it into a big pile and throwing a match is surely both the spiteful and sensible option. This is shit that is designed to explode. The problem can literally solve itself.

So, with more than a few states probably willing to supply training, parts etc. I'm cutting my guess down to 2 and a half. Bidens not got the balls to launch what I assume would be needed to be several hundred drone strikes in a leaving blitzkrieg and doing so would make the US into a bit of a pariah state. Easier to wait for an atrocity or two and start again. Probably better for the war economy too.

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