Picking Cain's Brains

[altered]

I have one for this too.

With the Republicans moving to left wing economics tied to racist legislation now (see Romney and Cotton's latest bill), what does this say about the future of the Republican Party in the US? Just... a best guess. Based on historical precedent. Not looking for a crystal ball here.

I have a theory, but I don't have as much background with this stuff as you do, and this seems to be specifically and explicitly your wheelhouse if I'm seeing what's happening correctly.

[Cain]

I can honestly see them going the way of the Law and Justice Party in Poland or Fidesz in Hungary - both manage an extremely conservative/reactionary social agenda with a racialised welfare state approach. In the case of Fidesz, this has created even more opportunities for graft and corruption among the politically connected and has additionally allowed them to create economic incentives for their preferred social agenda, such as tax breaks for larger families and married couples.

[Junkenstein]

Thanks, have missed the winner stuff, funny enough to look at or third rate drama?

[Cain]

Depressing, if anything. Winner provided them with docs, which they then put online and published to prove what they were saying.

The thing is, the US government uses canary traps to embed information in files provided, allowing them to identify leakers quickly and accurately. By providing the raw materials to the government, they allowed her to be identified almost right away. Mister "I'm an expert on espionage" Greenwald got taken in by one of the most basic counterintelligence precautions, one that has been around for literally hundreds of years.

[Junkenstein]

Jesus wept. Dunning krueger strikes again. Or, it throws your whole body of work and reputation under question.

Yeah, alt lite in 4 months, full on "microphones in the cheese!" meth standard in 8.

[altered]

I can honestly see them going the way of the Law and Justice Party in Poland or Fidesz in Hungary - both manage an extremely conservative/reactionary social agenda with a racialised welfare state approach. In the case of Fidesz, this has created even more opportunities for graft and corruption among the politically connected and has additionally allowed them to create economic incentives for their preferred social agenda, such as tax breaks for larger families and married couples.

This is basically what I was thinking. If I'm not mistaken, Fidesz in particular is functionally a modern day Fascist party?

[Cain]

They're definitely in that grey area between right-wing, illiberal populism and fascism. About the only thing holding them back is a more overtly imperialistic foreign policy. There has been a level of soft militarism under Orban's leadership, not unsurprisingly, but it's been more internally directed than anything. Their military is also pretty hopelessly outdated, so it's hard to tell what is "legitimate" upgrades needed for actual self-defence versus a potential military build-up.

Also not unsurprisingly Hungary's history means there is a lot of irrenditism on the far-right. I haven't seen much exploitation of that by Fidesz, but I would be moderately concerned if I were Slovakia. Both NATO and the EU, in theory, require a settlement of all territorial claims before joining, but obviously signing a piece of paper isn't going to change many people's minds.

[altered]

Yeah, that's basically what I was worried about.

I have other questions, but they're not really your deal at this point and also I don't want to ask those questions in the clear. Thanks, Cain.

[Doktor Howl]

Depressing, if anything. Winner provided them with docs, which they then put online and published to prove what they were saying.

The thing is, the US government uses canary traps to embed information in files provided, allowing them to identify leakers quickly and accurately. By providing the raw materials to the government, they allowed her to be identified almost right away. Mister "I'm an expert on espionage" Greenwald got taken in by one of the most basic counterintelligence precautions, one that has been around for literally hundreds of years.

I use canary traps in software comments and in secure white papers all the time.

[Cain]

Yeah, that's basically what I was worried about.

I have other questions, but they're not really your deal at this point and also I don't want to ask those questions in the clear. Thanks, Cain.

No problem.

Depressing, if anything. Winner provided them with docs, which they then put online and published to prove what they were saying.

The thing is, the US government uses canary traps to embed information in files provided, allowing them to identify leakers quickly and accurately. By providing the raw materials to the government, they allowed her to be identified almost right away. Mister "I'm an expert on espionage" Greenwald got taken in by one of the most basic counterintelligence precautions, one that has been around for literally hundreds of years.

I use canary traps in software comments and in secure white papers all the time.

It's a classic technique...hence the utter contempt I have for Greenwald over this. Like, you were supposedly not just a journalist (lets be honest, he was an op-ed writer, not a practiced investigative journalist in any sense) but also a lawyer and you don't know this shit? Jesus fucking Christ man, at least hire a private detective to act as a consultant, if you don't know what you're doing, don't simply Dunning-Kruger your sources into prison.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Jesus christ, they never downloaded a screener from TPB and wondered why the fuzzy bit?

[Junkenstein]

Hey Cain, what's the deal with the Haitian assassination? Big bag of fun?

[rong]

Hey Cain, what's the deal with the Haitian assassination? Big bag of fun?

i like to believe this is somehow related https://www.the-sun.com/news/3156537/john-mcafee-death-sparks-activated-dead-mans-qanon/

oh yeah, this too: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/27/us/miami-building-investigation-clues.html

[Cain]

Hey Cain, what's the deal with the Haitian assassination? Big bag of fun?

Well that the hitters are from Columbia is quite telling.

Columbians are cheap, and usually well-trained. By Americans. My guess is that most of them went through an American-sponsored counter-terrorism or counterinsurgency training program at some point. We know one of them certainly did, Manuel Antonio Grosso. Army, urban counter-terrorism outfit. Likely several of the others also. Two US-citizens of Haitian descent were also arrested alongside them.

However, the opposition in Haiti are claiming that Moïse's own Presidential guard did it. There's also some time discrepancies on the Colombian hitters story, video reportedly does show them arriving...at least an hour later then initial reports have said.

Working theory? Moïse was whacked by a team put together by the Americans for this kind of work in the central Americas. Now whether the Americans were explicitly on the trigger on this it's harder to say...it wouldn't surprise me, but at the same time it doesn't take a genius to hire a bunch of paramilitaries for an assassination, and if the CIA can do it, then Haitian oligarchs also certainly can. We also know the Americans have been a bit trigger-happy with their cut-outs in that region of late, so it's possible the DIA or CIA or someone is making their own foreign policy.

Beyond that, I'll have to look into who Moïse has been pissing off lately, and who's most likely to step into his shoes.

[Doktor Howl]

Hey Cain, what's the deal with the Haitian assassination? Big bag of fun?

Well that the hitters are from Columbia is quite telling.

Columbians are cheap, and usually well-trained. By Americans. My guess is that most of them went through an American-sponsored counter-terrorism or counterinsurgency training program at some point. We know one of them certainly did, Manuel Antonio Grosso. Army, urban counter-terrorism outfit. Likely several of the others also. Two US-citizens of Haitian descent were also arrested alongside them.

However, the opposition in Haiti are claiming that Moïse's own Presidential guard did it. There's also some time discrepancies on the Colombian hitters story, video reportedly does show them arriving...at least an hour later then initial reports have said.

Working theory? Moïse was whacked by a team put together by the Americans for this kind of work in the central Americas. Now whether the Americans were explicitly on the trigger on this it's harder to say...it wouldn't surprise me, but at the same time it doesn't take a genius to hire a bunch of paramilitaries for an assassination, and if the CIA can do it, then Haitian oligarchs also certainly can. We also know the Americans have been a bit trigger-happy with their cut-outs in that region of late, so it's possible the DIA or CIA or someone is making their own foreign policy.

Beyond that, I'll have to look into who Moïse has been pissing off lately, and who's most likely to step into his shoes.

I was just reading that he was getting in the way of profits for some of the fat cats who have been more or less running the joint since 2010.

By which I mean drug traffickers.