Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

[Jasper]

Wow, okay.

The world of fanfics.  How curious. 

[Cain]

Fandom is crazy, yo.

Even other fandom members realize this, hence the creation of http://wiki.fandomwank.com/index.php/Main_Page

This is a treasure trove http://wiki.fandomwank.com/index.php/Harry_Potter_fandom

[Cain]

If you havent clicked that link yet, you're missing out of tons of crazy.

Also, Voldemort-Snake Rule 34 in the latest chapter!

[Kai]

I have a feeling we're coming close to the endgame of book one. And soon.

[Cain]

Calling it now: Voldemort fails because he attempts to use his cunning plot to not only fulfill the wishes of Hermione, Draco and Harry at once, but also to distract the rest of the school in order to seize the Philosopher's Stone, thus violating Lucius Malfoy's rule of clever plotting.

Edit: or it turns out that Mr Hat and Cloak or, less likely, Dumbledore is the Big Bad.  Why?  Read [ur=http://yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-goodl]The Sword of Good[/url] for an explanation.  Harry hinted at the start that since the wizarding world was a de facto aristocracy run on quasi-racist nonsense, an optimized French Revolution may not be such a terrible idea.  Voldemort seems to care more about escaping Earth and immortal life than about Muggles per se (also see Harry's description to Draco of Malfoy's followers.  Voldemort was using their hatred of Muggles for his own gameplan, which I suspect will be rather different than that of the Canon Voldemort's).  Dumbledore is well intentioned on a personal level, but has his hands on many of the levers of power in the wizarding world, and apparently sits on his hands and does nothing most of the time, except get involved in pissing matches with Malfoy's faction.  He doesn't need to be Minister of Magic though, and apparently has no intention of being so, already having Hogwarts, a seat on the Wizengamot and being Chief Warlock as well.

And Hat and Cloak...well, they seem to know that Quirrel is definitely opposed to Dumbledore's faction, while having little but scorn for Lucius Malfoy as well.  But he wants Quirrel and Dumbledore fighting each other....why? 

Harry, when demented, suggested there was something that could be done, some clever plot, which could end up in having every faction kill each other.  Voldemort would be the most dangerous one, the hardest to kill, but virtually no-one trusts him, and therefore he would be the best trigger (presumably).  Voldemort's antipathy for Lucius and Dumbledore is being manipulated by someone else, someone whose identity we are not sure of.  They're moving the pieces into place, so that when they set the trigger, everyone dies.  The current Minister for Magic is a tool of Malfoy, he would likely fall quickly without his patronage.  A vacuum in power at the top of the wizarding world....

Maybe Voldemort is orchestrating this all.  He gets a body back using the Philosopher's Stone, leaves the unpossessed Quirrell out to dry and uses the chaos and disorder to implement the plan he suggested with the Mark of Light.

The problem with that is that it needs us to assume Voldemort is lying about his interest in escaping Earth, which I believe to be generally honest.  However someone else could also, plausibly use this scenario to rise to power.  The question is who?

[Don Coyote]

How do we know that Voldemort is in fact hitching a ride on Quirrel, aside from that being how it happened in HPASS. It is possible that there is some other explanation for Quirrel's strangeness.

[Rumckle]

I didn't think Voldemort was hitching a ride on Quirrel, I thought he was completely impersonating him (poly-juice potion or something I guess). I wouldn't think that possessing Quirrel would allow Voldemort to transform into his animangus state (unless Quirrel also is a snake animangus, but that seems highly unlikely), perhaps I am wrong though.

[Kai]

I didn't think Voldemort was hitching a ride on Quirrel, I thought he was completely impersonating him (poly-juice potion or something I guess). I wouldn't think that possessing Quirrel would allow Voldemort to transform into his animangus state (unless Quirrel also is a snake animangus, but that seems highly unlikely), perhaps I am wrong though.

Because it wouldn't make any sense for the drooling idiocy when not in control otherwise.

[Cain]

We know Quirrel is Voldemort because of Word of God.  Yudowsky has made it pretty clear in his chapter notes several times now, including the time he talked about the Pioneer plaque and how it was made into a Horcrux.

[Cain]

Also, did anyone look at the Less Wrong thread on Amanda Knox after reading the author's notes?  I'm pretty familiar with the case anyway, and had long believed the evidence did not add up against Knox or her boyfriend, so I'm glad to see others also see it that way, but I wondered if anyone else had any insights on the topic?

[Requia ☣]

I'm not really familiar with the case, but from a brief look at the Wikipedia article I'm not sure where the case comes from.  They found a knife that had Knox's DNA, but it was a kitchen knife and Knox lived there, so finding her DNA isn't surprising.  Heck Neither is finding the victim's, people cut themselves cooking all the time, and it was apparently very trace DNA.

The only other thing they have on Knox and her boyfriend is the conflicted alibis, but human memory sucks badly, so that's not surprising.

Some of the rationale for the conviction is disturbing.  That they read violent comics and used drugs that aren't linked to violence is evidence? 

They also mention a bloody footprint in the conviction justification, but another part of the article says the footprints were not actually bloody, a fact concealed by the prosecution* but available before the conviction.  Though maybe I'm linking the two despite them not being related or the wiki is giving me bad info.

*Where the hell is a lynch mob when you need one?  This is not acceptable behavior.

[Kai]

Also, did anyone look at the Less Wrong thread on Amanda Knox after reading the author's notes?  I'm pretty familiar with the case anyway, and had long believed the evidence did not add up against Knox or her boyfriend, so I'm glad to see others also see it that way, but I wondered if anyone else had any insights on the topic?

If you look at the evidence via bayesian reasoning, it doesn't add up to the conviction. So, no new insights.

[Cain]

At last, the Azkaban breakout I've been waiting for.

Note: Bellatrix, in canon, had one of the weapons capable of destroying Voldemort's horcruxs in her vault at Gingrotts, namely the Sword of Gryffindor.  However, it was only able to destroy them due to having being bathed in basilisk venom, which of course hasn't happened in MoR, as far as we know.

So Bellatrix is coming out for another reason.  If she's half the psycho she was in the canon, I can't see a calculating villain wanting to get her out for merely her expertise in fanaticism and torture.  It would be means to another end...perhaps getting the Dementors dismissed from guarding Azkaban, allowing them to be recruited by Voldemort?  But Voldemort hates and fears death more than anyone, and aside from having his soul split he has no real defences against a Dementor.  Maybe to help preciptate the fall of magical Britain's government, then?

None of those reasons seem entirely convincing though.

[Cain]

ALSO HI ELIZIER!

Edit: you know, I did wonder why we had 50 odd guests reading this page.  Damn, now I'll actually have to start thinking before I post in this thread.

[Triple Zero]

He should register an account.