Proving the war in Afghanistan is lost.....with MATHS!

[Cain]

OK, read this article  http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7020YU20110103?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563  Then read this data http://www.icasualties.org/

Adding all counter-insurgent fatalities together (Afghan Army, Afghan Police, ISAF forces), 2824 were killed in 2010.

In return, the Taliban suffered 5225 casualties.

The international forces are screwed.  They cannot even manage a 2:1 kill ratio, and the Taliban can more easily replenish it's numbers than the international forces can, what with the troop numbers freezing before the withdrawal starts.  The Afghan security budget is already far larger than what the country can safely sustain without a coup in it's near future, so you can lose any cute ideas about "Afghans standing up while westerners stand down", because the minute they cannot get a pay check those mostly ethnic Uzbek and Tajik officers are going to start doing re-runs of the 1994 civil war in Kabul's streets.  Inflating the army increases the future risk of this, and everyone who can think more than five minutes ahead knows it.

As a rule, an occupying army that is taking 1:4 losses is considered "treading water".  So this is more akin to some other kind of water based metaphor, like, I dunno "drowning".

[Phox]

OK, read this article  http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7020YU20110103?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563  Then read this data http://www.icasualties.org/

Adding all counter-insurgent fatalities together (Afghan Army, Afghan Police, ISAF forces), 2824 were killed in 2010.

In return, the Taliban suffered 5225 casualties.

The international forces are screwed.  They cannot even manage a 2:1 kill ratio, and the Taliban can more easily replenish it's numbers than the international forces can, what with the troop numbers freezing before the withdrawal starts.  The Afghan security budget is already far larger than what the country can safely sustain without a coup in it's near future, so you can lose any cute ideas about "Afghans standing up while westerners stand down", because the minute they cannot get a pay check those mostly ethnic Uzbek and Tajik officers are going to start doing re-runs of the 1994 civil war in Kabul's streets.  Inflating the army increases the future risk of this, and everyone who can think more than five minutes ahead knows it.

As a rule, an occupying army that is taking 1:4 losses is considered "treading water".  So this is more akin to some other kind of water based metaphor, like, I dunno "drowning".

Fuck. Well, we had a good run while it lasted, right? [/sarcasm]

[Cain]

If things had been done right from the start, theoretically speaking there would likely be significant signs of improvement by now.  And by "theoretically speaking", I mean "had the US invaded anywhere except Afghanistan".

[Phox]

If things had been done right from the start, theoretically speaking there would likely be significant signs of improvement by now.  And by "theoretically speaking", I mean "had the US invaded anywhere except Afghanistan".

But Cain, how could anyone, even the mighty U.S. gubment, foresee that such a move would result in disaster??

[The Johnny]

AMERICA: fostering anti-american hatred in the middle east for FREEDOM^tm since 2001.

(And really, these guys are badass, i mean World Powers,Afgha 0-2)

[East Coast Hustle]

AMERICA: fostering anti-american hatred in the middle east for FREEDOM^tm since 2001.

(And really, these guys are badass, i mean World Powers,Afgha 0-2)

You got your score wrong. It's more like Afghans 6, World Powers 0 going back to Alexander the Great.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

AMERICA: fostering anti-american hatred in the middle east for FREEDOM^tm since 2001.

(And really, these guys are badass, i mean World Powers,Afgha 0-2)

You got your score wrong. It's more like Afghans 6, World Powers 0 going back to Alexander the Great.

The other 4 were before television, so they don't count.

[Adios]

AMERICA: fostering anti-american hatred in the middle east for FREEDOM^tm since 2001.

(And really, these guys are badass, i mean World Powers,Afgha 0-2)

You got your score wrong. It's more like Afghans 6, World Powers 0 going back to Alexander the Great.

The other 4 were before television, so they don't count.

[Telarus]