Liberaltarianism

[Disco Pickle]

In fact, if economics was a science, it would consist mostly of the study of human irrationality.

It's always been a social science, unless I've been vastly misinformed.

It only exists within a primate social structure.

insects and reptiles have no reason to ever consider currency as an option for survival.

I may be missing your point here.

mine is that economics IS a science.  there are several "schools of thought" on the subject, but it is largely held (admittedly, by the same people who study it) as a social science.

[Cain]

Even social sciences (in theory) should be held up to some clear minimum on the science half of the deal.  Economics and International Relations (who have a lot of overlap, thanks to game theory and microeconomic modelling) are probably the two worst subjects when it comes to actually explaining the past or present, preferring instead to come up with a bunch of prescriptive theoretical models which align just barely with some facets of widely recognized phenomena.

[Don Coyote]

So, mahjiq?

[Cain]

Pretty much.

[Disco Pickle]

Even social sciences (in theory) should be held up to some clear minimum on the science half of the deal.  Economics and International Relations (who have a lot of overlap, thanks to game theory and microeconomic modelling) are probably the two worst subjects when it comes to actually explaining the past or present, preferring instead to come up with a bunch of prescriptive theoretical models which align just barely with some facets of widely recognized phenomena.

I'm with you here, but my research on game theory has produced evidence that within certain set and scope, cooporation can and will happen to the benefit of all.  Dammit I have to dig up that link..  It's fairly recent and it's far past my bed time to be scouring the internets but it intrigued the hell out of me.  Basically (without becoming too dry) a guy wrote a game model that chooses cooperation over destructive confrontation ( or so I gathered at the time..  It's late, it's been some time since I read the concept,  and I should reread it before I speak about it as if I understand ALL of it )

as far as economics and internationaal relations not being very good at explaining the past (I believe there should be a distinction between micro and macro economics, since it's taught that way to anyone who cares to study it) we CAN follow the history of the system we have and are using now.   I agree that speculation about other systems become theoretical based on available data..  

but we can SEE what is happening with what we're using now.  We can look at the data that IS still published (which makes me always wonder why the M3 is no LONGER published) and draw fairly accurate conclusions about how the current system will continue to operate if sustained.

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

[Telarus]

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

Oh I'm sure there were quite a few groups out there who saw it coming. They just fell into 2 categories:

1) Those convinced they could profit from it.

2) Those rendered ineffective by the system, and who couldn't do anything about it (this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

[Disco Pickle]

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

Oh I'm sure there were quite a few groups out there who saw it coming. They just fell into 2 categories:

1) Those convinced they could profit from it.

2) Those rendered ineffective by the system, and who couldn't do anything about it (this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

those convinced they could profit from it were the ones who (in casino speak) took the dark side bet that the betters would loose.

AIG was a dark side bet company if I'm understanding everything I've read correctly.

#2 sounds to me like people who didn't pay attention and didn't pull their money out in time and hedge better. 

(this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

I'm going to do my best to not sound like a dick here, and probably still fail..

but who the fuck said anyone had to make anyone else aware of the possibility of it happening?

isn't it everyone's responsibility?

[Requia ☣]

Yes, because the common people are totally going to be aware that say, almost every bank in the country had taken investment insurance (not what its called but pretty much what it amounts too) out with AIG, and that AIG didn't have more than 1% of what would be needed to pay out on those policies once the real estate market tanked.

[Adios]

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

Oh I'm sure there were quite a few groups out there who saw it coming. They just fell into 2 categories:

1) Those convinced they could profit from it.

2) Those rendered ineffective by the system, and who couldn't do anything about it (this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

those convinced they could profit from it were the ones who (in casino speak) took the dark side bet that the betters would loose.

AIG was a dark side bet company if I'm understanding everything I've read correctly.

#2 sounds to me like people who didn't pay attention and didn't pull their money out in time and hedge better. 

(this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

I'm going to do my best to not sound like a dick here, and probably still fail..

but who the fuck said anyone had to make anyone else aware of the possibility of it happening?

isn't it everyone's responsibility?

I like you, but I haven't been on a cloud like the one you're on since the last time I did a hit of acid, 1971, I think.

[Disco Pickle]

Yes, because the common people are totally going to be aware that say, almost every bank in the country had taken investment insurance (not what its called but pretty much what it amounts too) out with AIG, and that AIG didn't have more than 1% of what would be needed to pay out on those policies once the real estate market tanked.

Most local banks did fine.  I think I remember just one or two local to my area being snatched up by larger ones with better capitalization.  The rest were ok.

Who are these "common people" to whom you refer?

anyone not working in Banking? 

[Kai]

Even social sciences (in theory) should be held up to some clear minimum on the science half of the deal.  Economics and International Relations (who have a lot of overlap, thanks to game theory and microeconomic modelling) are probably the two worst subjects when it comes to actually explaining the past or present, preferring instead to come up with a bunch of prescriptive theoretical models which align just barely with some facets of widely recognized phenomena.

Yes.

[Disco Pickle]

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

Oh I'm sure there were quite a few groups out there who saw it coming. They just fell into 2 categories:

1) Those convinced they could profit from it.

2) Those rendered ineffective by the system, and who couldn't do anything about it (this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

those convinced they could profit from it were the ones who (in casino speak) took the dark side bet that the betters would loose.

AIG was a dark side bet company if I'm understanding everything I've read correctly.

#2 sounds to me like people who didn't pay attention and didn't pull their money out in time and hedge better. 

(this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

I'm going to do my best to not sound like a dick here, and probably still fail..

but who the fuck said anyone had to make anyone else aware of the possibility of it happening?

isn't it everyone's responsibility?

I like you, but I haven't been on a cloud like the one you're on since the last time I did a hit of acid, 1971, I think.

8 years before I was even born..  really your last time?  you're not missing anything..  the quality is shit now.

If expecting people to pay attention to their own finances and what's going on in the global market (since it affects them) is a trippy expectation, then yeah..  I could see how someone could think I was licking the schnozberries.

I probably do expect more out of people than they're currently capable of.  Maybe EVER capable of.

I can see my house from here.

[Kai]

In fact, if economics was a science, it would consist mostly of the study of human irrationality.

It's always been a social science, unless I've been vastly misinformed.

It only exists within a primate social structure.

insects and reptiles have no reason to ever consider currency as an option for survival.

I may be missing your point here.

mine is that economics IS a science.  there are several "schools of thought" on the subject, but it is largely held (admittedly, by the same people who study it) as a social science.

I consider science to be a framework by which one describes and predicts actual reality, not a system of cognitive biases used to support whatever goddawful ideas make sense in the midst of an LSD trip. Therefore, not science. Which sucks, because if it were actually science maybe things wouldn't suck so much.

[Adios]

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

Oh I'm sure there were quite a few groups out there who saw it coming. They just fell into 2 categories:

1) Those convinced they could profit from it.

2) Those rendered ineffective by the system, and who couldn't do anything about it (this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

those convinced they could profit from it were the ones who (in casino speak) took the dark side bet that the betters would loose.

AIG was a dark side bet company if I'm understanding everything I've read correctly.

#2 sounds to me like people who didn't pay attention and didn't pull their money out in time and hedge better. 

(this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

I'm going to do my best to not sound like a dick here, and probably still fail..

but who the fuck said anyone had to make anyone else aware of the possibility of it happening?

isn't it everyone's responsibility?

I like you, but I haven't been on a cloud like the one you're on since the last time I did a hit of acid, 1971, I think.

8 years before I was even born..  really your last time?  you're not missing anything..  the quality is shit now.

If expecting people to pay attention to their own finances and what's going on in the global market (since it affects them) is a trippy expectation, then yeah..  I could see how someone could think I was licking the schnozberries.

I probably do expect more out of people than they're currently capable of.  Maybe EVER capable of.

I can see my house from here.

So from your high moral ground you think every average person should have been able to see everything happening in the economic industry, even though people educated in the field and many others who have first hand and inside knowledge didn't see it.

You want the average person to understand the global market?

You must be very wealthy indeed with all of this knowledge you possess.

[Disco Pickle]

this recession was predictable to anyone really watching what was going on.

Oh I'm sure there were quite a few groups out there who saw it coming. They just fell into 2 categories:

1) Those convinced they could profit from it.

2) Those rendered ineffective by the system, and who couldn't do anything about it (this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

those convinced they could profit from it were the ones who (in casino speak) took the dark side bet that the betters would loose.

AIG was a dark side bet company if I'm understanding everything I've read correctly.

#2 sounds to me like people who didn't pay attention and didn't pull their money out in time and hedge better. 

(this includes those made not aware of the possibility of it happening).

I'm going to do my best to not sound like a dick here, and probably still fail..

but who the fuck said anyone had to make anyone else aware of the possibility of it happening?

isn't it everyone's responsibility?

I like you, but I haven't been on a cloud like the one you're on since the last time I did a hit of acid, 1971, I think.

8 years before I was even born..  really your last time?  you're not missing anything..  the quality is shit now.

If expecting people to pay attention to their own finances and what's going on in the global market (since it affects them) is a trippy expectation, then yeah..  I could see how someone could think I was licking the schnozberries.

I probably do expect more out of people than they're currently capable of.  Maybe EVER capable of.

I can see my house from here.

So from your high moral ground you think every average person should have been able to see everything happening in the economic industry, even though people educated in the field and many others who have first hand and inside knowledge didn't see it.

You want the average person to understand the global market?

You must be very wealthy indeed with all of this knowledge you possess.

I did liquidate my 401k in 2007.  It was out of necessity, and the taxes were a bitch.

I take no moral ground. 

I did expect the children of the children of the depression to maybe have learned something from their parents.

I was disappointed.

not much point in armchair quarterbacking it now..  I only hope this one taught people to look closer at what's going on and not get into so much damn debt.