N. Korea attacks southern island of S. Korea

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I know I'm not Cain, but I think it would maybe hinge partly on how close NK ordinances land on our bases in SK.  I mean, I think it all boils down to Obama.  He's played the hawk with the drones and Afghanistan but I wonder how quick he would be to get involved in this theater. 

Probably pretty quickly.  This is the sort of war we do well.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Wiki

The shelling caused several casualties among the South Koreans on Yeongpyeong. Two South Korean marines, Sergeant Jeong-wu Seo and Private Gwang-wuk Moon, were killed, six were seriously wounded, and ten were treated for minor injuries. At least three civilians were also wounded.[1] Additionally, the attack started fires on the island.[10]

The North Korean attack had a global impact on the financial markets. Several Asian currencies weakened against the euro and U.S. dollar while at the same time Asian stock markets declined.[14] The effects the shelling had in the financial industry led the South Korea's central bank, the Bank of Korea, to hold an emergency meeting to assess the impact of the fighting on the markets.[15]

President Lee instructed the military to strike North Korea's missile base near the coastline artillery position if there was an indication of further provocation.[16]

Hong-gi Lee, the Director of Operations of ROK JCS, announced in a press conference "There may be a considerable number of North Korean casualties".[17]

Apparently, North Korea fired about 100 shells, and South Korea about 80, alongside some air support.

North Korea wound up with a bloody nose.

[Cain]

I thought Jong-Un isn't believed to be as hostile?

That's the problem.  Militaries, as a rule, gain power within a political structure when the threat of war is high.  Plus, there are indications that Jong-un is attempting to strengthen the largely defunct Korean Workers Party against the military, who wield most of the power within the country, and that he has Chinese help in this.

By locking him into a hostile relationship with South Korea, the USA and China through their threatening actions, they strengthen their hand within the North Korean government for the forseeable future.

[Cain]

Cain, what do you think the US response will be if all out hostilities were to erupt?

I dont see it happening, but if it did, the US would certainly intervene.  I believe it still has thousands of troops stationed on the south side of the DMZ, and it wouldn't take long for the navy and airforce to involve themselves in an offshore balancer role ie; propping up and aiding the South Koreans with bombing sorties, naval bombardment and blockades, that kind of thing.  The North Korean military is a fairly modern military, based along Soviet Red Army lines.  It is pretty much the foe the modern US military was designed to fight, only less technologically adept, well trained or as numerous as the real Red Army.

The only worry is, of course, the nukes.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I dont see it happening, but if it did, the US would certainly intervene.  I believe it still has thousands of troops stationed on the south side of the DMZ, and it wouldn't take long for the navy and airforce to involve themselves in an offshore balancer role ie; propping up and aiding the South Koreans with bombing sorties, naval bombardment and blockades, that kind of thing.  The North Korean military is a fairly modern military, based along Soviet Red Army lines.  It is pretty much the foe the modern US military was designed to fight, only less technologically adept, well trained or as numerous as the real Red Army.

The only worry is, of course, the nukes.

1.  The US 2d Infantry Division, plus a bag of armor and Marines, are stationed on the DMZ.

2.  North Korean nukes?  They'd have to ship them to ground zero on a train.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

2.  North Korean nukes?  They'd have to ship them to ground zero on a train.

Or strap them onto a person, horse, car etc...

Then again, launching a payload on a rocket that could hit South Korea is probably not nearly as difficult as trying to aim for the US. They could just borrow some Qassams from their business partners...

[Cain]

1.  The US 2d Infantry Division, plus a bag of armor and Marines, are stationed on the DMZ.

2.  North Korean nukes?  They'd have to ship them to ground zero on a train.

Thought so, to the former, but I cannot double check, with my computer being so slow right now. 40,000 seems to be a number that rings a bell, but I like to factcheck such things.

And yeah, to the later, but the North Koreans probably would.  Anything but their missiles would be my preferred option, in their place.  I assume at least one DPRK general is also thinking the same.

[geekdad]

1.  The US 2d Infantry Division, plus a bag of armor and Marines, are stationed on the DMZ.

2.  North Korean nukes?  They'd have to ship them to ground zero on a train.

http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.166/missile_detail.asp

Or you know.. they could use that to hit anywhere in the pacific theater.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.166/missile_detail.asp

Or you know.. they could use that to hit anywhere in the pacific theater.

Yeah, now try to stick a nice, HUGE primitive nuke on it.

It'd be like sticking a bottle rocket up Rush Limbaugh's ass and expecting to hit Canada.

[Cain]

Those are the North Korean missiles that keep failing and falling into the ocean, and whose threat has been hyped by government linked defense analysts who point out yes, theoretically, those missiles could hit Alaska, but leave out the assumptions like competent engineering, the wind blowing the right way and North Korea being able to import enough duct tape to hold the missile together, none of which are minor considerations when it comes to their ballistic missile program.

They're more likely to attack Japan than anyone else, since they know they can hit Japan and it'll whip up Korean racism both sides of the border, in their favour. Plus there is a nice, tempting target on Okinawa in the form of a major US military base...

[Suu]

So essentially what you're saying is...yell they have nukes, but the actual odds of them working PROPERLY is relatively low.

[Cain]

Their nukes should work...they are based on Pakistani designs (though with certain safety features deactivated, so if they did land somewhere and fail to go off, removing the nuclear warhead would in fact be very easy), its the missiles that are the problem, the delivery system.

[LMNO]

Well, as the saying goes, the theory of a nuke is easy.  Quickly compress radioactive material until it hits critical mass.

Actually getting that to happen is much more difficult.

[Richter]

What's the deployment of the US anti missile cruisers in the Pacific right now?

[Requia ☣]

Their nukes should work...they are based on Pakistani designs (though with certain safety features deactivated, so if they did land somewhere and fail to go off, removing the nuclear warhead would in fact be very easy), its the missiles that are the problem, the delivery system.

How much does a Pakistani nuke weigh?