N. Korea attacks southern island of S. Korea

[Kai]

Well, as the saying goes, the theory of a nuke is easy.  Quickly compress radioactive material until it hits critical mass.

Actually getting that to happen is much more difficult.

Are these classic fission or fusion nukes?

[Jasper]

If they're based on pakistani designs, I'm going to assume fission.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Yeah, now try to stick a nice, HUGE primitive nuke on it.

It'd be like sticking a bottle rocket up Rush Limbaugh's ass and expecting to hit Canada.

Thank you for the mental image.

[Cain]

How much does a Pakistani nuke weigh?

Their largest is somwhere between 12 and 40 kilotons based on the 1998 tests....North Korean testing has been estimated at sub-kiloton levels.  One North Korean missile is a variant on the SS-4 Soviet cruise missile, which could theoretically hold a 1.3 kiloton weapon...there is also a variant on the Shabab III, which could hold up to a one kiloton weapon, maybe....but that aside North Korea is mostly armed with Scuds.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Their largest is somwhere between 12 and 40 kilotons based on the 1998 tests....North Korean testing has been estimated at sub-kiloton levels.  One North Korean missile is a variant on the SS-4 Soviet cruise missile, which could theoretically hold a 1.3 kiloton weapon...there is also a variant on the Shabab III, which could hold up to a one kiloton weapon, maybe....but that aside North Korea is mostly armed with Scuds.

Scuds can reach SK and Japan from there, right?

[Cain]

Scuds can reach SK and Japan from there, right?

South Korea definitely...Japan maybe.  Depending on the wind direction.  99% of the country is outside of the range for a Scud missile, but there is always the possibility of a couple of high performers getting through.

[Requia ☣]

Not yield, mass of the warhead, I'm trying to think how much work making a missile that can carry a N Korea nuke would be, or to scale down the size of their warheads.  Compared to say, the early US nukes (the smallest of which massed at 4000 kg (274 slugs in American)) N korea doesn't have a prayer of getting a nuke off the ground with the missiles it has.  If they have designs for a 600 kg warhead, then even if they don't have that done yet they have a missile that can deliver it once they manage to duplicate the rest of the designs.

Though, sub kiloton, really?  I didn't even know it was possible to make a nuke that small.  Is that because they're trying to make it small, or did they do a shitty job with the chain reaction and its going to spread plutonium all over the blast area?

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

If they have radioactive material, then a 'dirty bomb' scenario might be more feasible... I dunno.

[Cain]

Well, Pakistani designs rely on 15-20kg of highly enriched uranium.  At the time Pakistan was doing the testing, it was trying to show it could match India in the nuclear weapons stakes, and so was looking to cause verifiably large nuclear explosions.  North Korea can't make much in the way of enriched uranium, so sub-kiloton weapons are likely the only way to get into the nuclear weapons club while having more than just one single missile.

[The Johnny]

Seul decided to reinforce considerably its military arsenal in the Yellow Sea, to confront any additional attacks North Korea might do, announced this thursday the Presidential Office.

Its on?

[Cain]

Naw.   South Korea would like to eventually unify the country without bringing total war to the north.  They're always going to be open to peaceful means.  This is just a message "uh, yeah, you're really pushing it now".

[Kai]

Fission? Meh. Even if it does reach somewhere, it's only on the scale of Hiroshima et Nagasaki. Bad, yeah, but not so bad as a hydrogen fusion bomb, and given the missle tech it won't even hit the intended target. Then everyone in the region will direct nukes AT N. Korea. Thus ending N. Korea.

[Cain]

Chance of this going nuclear >0.05

Now, are we going to continue to flap our hands about the most unlikely of scenarios, or can we go back to discussing what is actually happening?

[Jasper]

Russia's foreign minister estimates a high risk of escalation.

It sounds like we can't sanction NK more than we already are.  So what's next?

Just trying to get a handle on this.  This seems like part of a larger pattern for NK, but I'm a little confused about motives.

ETA:  Peter Beck:

"I don't think the North would seek war by intention, but war by accident, something spiralling out of control, has always been my fear."

[geekdad]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8161433/Artillery-fire-heard-near-South-Korea-island.html

6:53AM GMT 26 Nov 2010
South Korea's military said two explosions were heard on Friday and it was checking the source of the sounds.

The two blasts were heard off Yeonpyeong island near the disputed border in the Yellow Sea, a Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman told AFP.

"We're checking the origin of the sounds," he said.