Question for Cain...and other more IR savvy folk.

[Cain]

So you're saying Nassim Nicholas Taleb is wrong, or that I have no idea what hes talking about?

Sounds more like the matter.  Taleb didn't say "everything is unpredictable", and in fact, a "Black Swan" is used to refer to an event which was unexpected and has a high impact.

Are you really suggesting that if a nation was split between two major ethnic groups, and each of those ethnic groups were concentrated in certain areas, and that there was a well-funded secession group funded by members of that ethnic group living across the border in a neighbouring state, and they had both a political and paramilitary arm, and their military ability and willingness to fight was on a par with the national forces, that certain powerful nations were willing to recognize a new state and that a host of other factors were working in favour of secession, that you would...what?  Just shrug your shoulders and say "well, it's just as likely there wont be a secession"?

[Payne]

So you're saying Nassim Nicholas Taleb is wrong, or that I have no idea what hes talking about?

You're applying what he says to the wrong things.

hmm.

*whips out copy of black swan*

Taleb's theory applies to that which we cannot fully understand, and he say's as much. Secession is well understood. Therefore the black swan theory does not apply.

[Lies]

So you're saying Nassim Nicholas Taleb is wrong, or that I have no idea what hes talking about?

Sounds more like the matter.  Taleb didn't say "everything is unpredictable", and in fact, a "Black Swan" is used to refer to an event which was unexpected and has a high impact.

Are you really suggesting that if a nation was split between two major ethnic groups, and each of those ethnic groups were concentrated in certain areas, and that there was a well-funded secession group funded by members of that ethnic group living across the border in a neighbouring state, and they had both a political and paramilitary arm, and their military ability and willingness to fight was on a par with the national forces, that certain powerful nations were willing to recognize a new state and that a host of other factors were working in favour of secession, that you would...what?  Just shrug your shoulders and say "well, it's just as likely there wont be a secession"?

No, that's not what I'm saying at all.
But to be honest, *I'm* not even sure what I was trying to say.

I suppose, is this something that falls into "Mediocristan"? is what I really should be asking/thinking, right?

[Lies]

So you're saying Nassim Nicholas Taleb is wrong, or that I have no idea what hes talking about?

You're applying what he says to the wrong things.

hmm.

*whips out copy of black swan*

Taleb's theory applies to that which we cannot fully understand, and he say's as much. Secession is well understood. Therefore the black swan theory does not apply.

Yeah, I suppose that's a fair point.

Asshole.