Slow Time in Fat City™, #11: The Long, Slow Slide

[East Coast Hustle]

I think Roger's timeline is hopelessly optimistic.

That shit is gonna take several generations to unfold. Which sucks, because I'm in perhaps the single most optimal position of anyone here to survive and thrive in a scenario like that, but by the time I'm 80 I'll be pretty well fucked regardless.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I think Roger's timeline is hopelessly optimistic.

That shit is gonna take several generations to unfold. Which sucks, because I'm in perhaps the single most optimal position of anyone here to survive and thrive in a scenario like that, but by the time I'm 80 I'll be pretty well fucked regardless.

I have to disagree, there.  Most cultural collapses occurred during periods that didn't look all that unstable.

However, we may not see a collapse immediately.  Most republics turn to autocracies before they finally go belly up.
 

[Requia ☣]

I've been thinking about how a total breakdown would go here in Utah, and I think we have an entirely different set of challenges ahead of us.  We have plenty of farmland here, and at least in North Utah we have our own water supply (South Utah is fucked), and while the infrastructure for that will fail eventually more primitive methods can replace those, and the Mormon obsession with storing food should help us deal with the transition to local food once the roads and oil are gone.

On the other hand, it gets damned cold here in the winter, and not many people have adequate insulation.  Without electricity or methane, I expect most of the valley to freeze to death, or kill themselves and their neighbors trying to burn something else for heat.  Or maybe we'll just strip the surrounding forests bare for firewood that first year, utterly destroying our water supply in the process.

Of course, all that assumes we won't be dealing with the same refugee problems Canada will.

[East Coast Hustle]

Oh yeah, everybody is gonna be flocking to Utah.

[Requia ☣]

How do you think people got to Utah in the first place?

People only move here when they have no other choice.  But there won't be a lot of options when the unpleasantness happens.

[Adios]

Beware Obama's Fabian Window

By William Kevin Stoos Friday, August 21, 2009

If you feel the ground shaking under your feet; if the America you once knew seems to be changing daily; if you feel that you have less and less control over your life and the country is being governed from the top down, then you should take heed. Someone is "remoulding the world nearer his heart's desire," and he has the biggest hammer in the world. If you want to understand Obama's agenda, you need to peer into the Fabian Window.

The Fabian Window is a beautiful, if sinister, thing. Although it currently hangs in London, it should be hanging in the White House, for the message in the window is an eerie reflection of what is happening in the United States before our very eyes. Built to commemorate the founding of the Fabian Socialist Society, the Fabian Window contains images that are clear, unapologetic and, as a friend of mine once said--brazen. It is one thing, as Lenin said, to howl like wolves in order to live among wolves; however it is quite another to advertise the fact that you are a wolf in sheep's clothing. Yet, the socialists who constructed the window had no qualms about advertising the fact that they had a hidden (or not so hidden) agenda when it comes to reshaping the world.

The window contains the image of two men--founders of the society--hammering the globe (from the top down no less) with sledgehammers--imposing their will on the world so to speak. They are not voting; they are not persuading; nor are they preaching to the masses. They are hammering the world with very big hammers. If imposing one's will from the top down does not remind you of the current occupant of the White House, then you have been living in a cave for the past eight months. The Czar and his Commissars are imposing their will on America every day, ramming legislation down the collective throat of America--legislation that Congress itself does not even read. And we are paying hundreds of billions of dollars, ceding our personal freedom, and witnessing the centralization of power in the federal government to an extent never before seen since we declared independence from the last dictator to rule America over two centuries ago. Are we being governed from the ground up--by the consent of the people? Or, is someone imposing their will upon us--hammering us from above?

More ominous still--the wolf in sheep's clothing. Amazingly, the Fabian Window contains an image--just above the fellows hammering the world--that is as clear as it is foreboding: the socialists are wolves in sheep's clothing. I often wonder why they did not choose a less ignoble animal. What about a courageous lion? A proud bull? A vigilant hawk? A noble horse? No, they chose a wolf--a cunning, ravenous, devious, and scary critter--and cloaked him in a sheepskin. Why? Because, as Lenin taught, if you want to operate in a capitalist society you must disguise yourself. Put the sheepskin on and you can easily mingle with the flock. Until you decide to shed the skin and consume the flock. The most frightening thing about the image is that the socialists make no apology about being wolves and living among sheep.

Creeping socialism has pervaded our government. We can deny it, wish it were not so, and the captive media can dismiss the notion as "right wing propaganda," but the truth is plain. Power is being consolidated daily in the central government--at the expense of the governed. The current occupants of the White House look and dress like capitalists and profess to believe in freedom--all the time hammering the world and remoudling it nearer their heart's desire--which, of course, is the motto inscribed on the Fabian Window. Does it say, "remould it nearer the will of the people?" Or, "remould it nearer the will of the voters?" No, the socialist window commands them to: "remould it nearer [their] heart's desire." This should send chills down the spine of every freedom loving American. We should question what is in their hearts and the wisdom of giving them the hammers.

Fast forward to the present day. Is someone pounding our world with a very big sledge hammer, imposing his will on the country? Or do we feel as if we have control over our lives? You be the judge:

Read the rest at Canada Free Press.

[Adios]

I think the above fits in with the OP. Not in the form of Socialism, but in something much worse.

[Remington]

[The Good Reverend Roger]

 

[Phox]

http://www.religiongonecrazy.com/wp-content/uploads/whatcrazychristiansattend.jpg

Say what you will about their optimism, but at least they are trying*. That's more than most monkeys, and damn sure more than most churches.  I like to imagine that title is ironic.





*I have no confidence in their ability to make any sort of difference in any of those areas, but if every church did that every week...

[Remington]

http://www.religiongonecrazy.com/wp-content/uploads/whatcrazychristiansattend.jpg

Say what you will about their optimism, but at least they are trying*. That's more than most monkeys, and damn sure more than most churches.  I like to imagine that title is ironic.





*I have no confidence in their ability to make any sort of difference in any of those areas, but if every church did that every week...

Is true, what you say. I hope the sermon is ironic, although it seems like they rarely are.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I was ill yesterday, and stayed home.  Being bored, and having no internet access, I decided to do something dangerous.  I strapped on my Hockey Helmet of Derp, and did a lot of thinking...Not the regular kind, that happens in The World As TGRR Would Like It, but instead about The World As It Actually Is.

It wasn't a pleasant experience.

First, the shattered economy and the so-called recovery:  Nothing has changed.  Not one damned thing.  The financial institutions have the same leeway they've had since 1996, and they aren't interested in the long term.  So instead of loaning the bailout money, they're buying T-bills and charging us interest on the loan WE gave THEM.  End result, the economy is WORSE, long-term, than it was 2 years ago.  It won't be long before that becomes self-evident (those of you who can't find a job already know this).

Second, the bulk of the population is haring off after some mythical "government" that they blame for all of these problems, while defending the utra-rich who are driving the problem.  They cheer for tax cuts for income brackets nobody they even know are in, and screech "socialism" every time something that might benefit THEM comes up.

To put it bluntly, you can't fix stupid.

Here's a few things you can expect:

1.  Further short-sighted thinking.  Expect massive turnovers in congress every election - especially the house - as the people vote out everyone who can't fix 30 years of malfeasance in 2 years.  People will then install - again - people who promise easy answers to complex problems.  If history is any guide, this congressional impotence has a final result, one that can be reviewed by studying Rome from 60BCE to 2CE, and Argentina in 1946CE.

2.  One thing that won't get fixed is infrastructure.  Ever since the 80s, anyone who calls for roads, bridges, and dams to be built or even maintained are branded as pork barrel swine, and derided for building "roads to nowhere".  As infrastructure degrades, a rise in vehicle maintenance costs will make shipping more expensive, which in turn will mean reduced revenues, which means LESS money for road repairs, etc.  It also means more pollution and less power, as dams are forced out of use due to cracks, etc.  This spiral, incidentally, has a bottom.  That bottom involves local-only traffic and the reintroduction of animal powered vehicles.  Don't laugh, we're almost there now in many places.

3.  Radical groups will become mainstream, and will begin enforcing their beliefs on everyone around them.  This will eventually include the use of actual force.

4.  When the military is required to keep the peace, then you know it's the end of the republic.  When the power goes off for set time periods, then you know it's the end of the nation.

No exaggeration, there.  A republic's breakdown is a fairly understood event, which happens in 4-5 stages.

1.  Radicalization that seems to result from a single event (In this case, the economic downturn), but is actually caused by the overcomplexity of the republic. (Happening today)

2.  Riots, vigilanteism, and local insurrection. (Within 2 years of last month).

3.  Civil war.  Military units begin to side with factions, rather than the central government. (4-6 years from now.)

4.  Either a despotism/autocracy, or a complete breakdown of society's structure (No later than 2022).

Lastly, if history is any judge, the slide is by this point irreversible.  It may get slowed for a while (or sped up, which is more likely), but the root cause (complexity) will not and cannot be addressed, at least in a manner that will leave the USA as a single political entity (England's in the same boat, but can't really Balkanize, so will probably crash a bit faster and quite a bit harder).

So there you have it.  Official Prophecy™, and unlike loads of other prophets, I'm willing to put dates on the events.  How to PREPARE for the Coming Weird Times is another matter entirely, and one of which I will rant about, but my answers probably won't work in your situation, so you're going to have to, you know, THINK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF.

Or Kill Me.

Prophecy, you fuckers.  Prophecy.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I was ill yesterday, and stayed home.  Being bored, and having no internet access, I decided to do something dangerous.  I strapped on my Hockey Helmet of Derp, and did a lot of thinking...Not the regular kind, that happens in The World As TGRR Would Like It, but instead about The World As It Actually Is.

It wasn't a pleasant experience.

First, the shattered economy and the so-called recovery:  Nothing has changed.  Not one damned thing.  The financial institutions have the same leeway they've had since 1996, and they aren't interested in the long term.  So instead of loaning the bailout money, they're buying T-bills and charging us interest on the loan WE gave THEM.  End result, the economy is WORSE, long-term, than it was 2 years ago.  It won't be long before that becomes self-evident (those of you who can't find a job already know this).

Second, the bulk of the population is haring off after some mythical "government" that they blame for all of these problems, while defending the utra-rich who are driving the problem.  They cheer for tax cuts for income brackets nobody they even know are in, and screech "socialism" every time something that might benefit THEM comes up.

To put it bluntly, you can't fix stupid.

Here's a few things you can expect:

1.  Further short-sighted thinking.  Expect massive turnovers in congress every election - especially the house - as the people vote out everyone who can't fix 30 years of malfeasance in 2 years.  People will then install - again - people who promise easy answers to complex problems.  If history is any guide, this congressional impotence has a final result, one that can be reviewed by studying Rome from 60BCE to 2CE, and Argentina in 1946CE.

2.  One thing that won't get fixed is infrastructure.  Ever since the 80s, anyone who calls for roads, bridges, and dams to be built or even maintained are branded as pork barrel swine, and derided for building "roads to nowhere".  As infrastructure degrades, a rise in vehicle maintenance costs will make shipping more expensive, which in turn will mean reduced revenues, which means LESS money for road repairs, etc.  It also means more pollution and less power, as dams are forced out of use due to cracks, etc.  This spiral, incidentally, has a bottom.  That bottom involves local-only traffic and the reintroduction of animal powered vehicles.  Don't laugh, we're almost there now in many places.

3.  Radical groups will become mainstream, and will begin enforcing their beliefs on everyone around them.  This will eventually include the use of actual force.

4.  When the military is required to keep the peace, then you know it's the end of the republic.  When the power goes off for set time periods, then you know it's the end of the nation.

No exaggeration, there.  A republic's breakdown is a fairly understood event, which happens in 4-5 stages.

1.  Radicalization that seems to result from a single event (In this case, the economic downturn), but is actually caused by the overcomplexity of the republic. (Happening today)

2.  Riots, vigilanteism, and local insurrection. (Within 2 years of last month).

3.  Civil war.  Military units begin to side with factions, rather than the central government. (4-6 years from now.)

4.  Either a despotism/autocracy, or a complete breakdown of society's structure (No later than 2022).

Lastly, if history is any judge, the slide is by this point irreversible.  It may get slowed for a while (or sped up, which is more likely), but the root cause (complexity) will not and cannot be addressed, at least in a manner that will leave the USA as a single political entity (England's in the same boat, but can't really Balkanize, so will probably crash a bit faster and quite a bit harder).

So there you have it.  Official Prophecy™, and unlike loads of other prophets, I'm willing to put dates on the events.  How to PREPARE for the Coming Weird Times is another matter entirely, and one of which I will rant about, but my answers probably won't work in your situation, so you're going to have to, you know, THINK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF.

Or Kill Me.

Prophecy, you fuckers.  Prophecy.

 

[Phox]

OFUK. I forgot about this. 

[ñͤͣ̄ͦ̌̑͗͊͛͂͗ ̸̨̨̣̺̼̣̜͙͈͕̮̊̈́̈͂͛̽͊ͭ̓͆ͅé ̰̓̓́ͯ́́͞]

I was ill yesterday, and stayed home.  Being bored, and having no internet access, I decided to do something dangerous.  I strapped on my Hockey Helmet of Derp, and did a lot of thinking...Not the regular kind, that happens in The World As TGRR Would Like It, but instead about The World As It Actually Is.

It wasn't a pleasant experience.

First, the shattered economy and the so-called recovery:  Nothing has changed.  Not one damned thing.  The financial institutions have the same leeway they've had since 1996, and they aren't interested in the long term.  So instead of loaning the bailout money, they're buying T-bills and charging us interest on the loan WE gave THEM.  End result, the economy is WORSE, long-term, than it was 2 years ago.  It won't be long before that becomes self-evident (those of you who can't find a job already know this).

Second, the bulk of the population is haring off after some mythical "government" that they blame for all of these problems, while defending the utra-rich who are driving the problem.  They cheer for tax cuts for income brackets nobody they even know are in, and screech "socialism" every time something that might benefit THEM comes up.

To put it bluntly, you can't fix stupid.

Here's a few things you can expect:

1.  Further short-sighted thinking.  Expect massive turnovers in congress every election - especially the house - as the people vote out everyone who can't fix 30 years of malfeasance in 2 years.  People will then install - again - people who promise easy answers to complex problems.  If history is any guide, this congressional impotence has a final result, one that can be reviewed by studying Rome from 60BCE to 2CE, and Argentina in 1946CE.

2.  One thing that won't get fixed is infrastructure.  Ever since the 80s, anyone who calls for roads, bridges, and dams to be built or even maintained are branded as pork barrel swine, and derided for building "roads to nowhere".  As infrastructure degrades, a rise in vehicle maintenance costs will make shipping more expensive, which in turn will mean reduced revenues, which means LESS money for road repairs, etc.  It also means more pollution and less power, as dams are forced out of use due to cracks, etc.  This spiral, incidentally, has a bottom.  That bottom involves local-only traffic and the reintroduction of animal powered vehicles.  Don't laugh, we're almost there now in many places.

3.  Radical groups will become mainstream, and will begin enforcing their beliefs on everyone around them.  This will eventually include the use of actual force.

4.  When the military is required to keep the peace, then you know it's the end of the republic.  When the power goes off for set time periods, then you know it's the end of the nation.

No exaggeration, there.  A republic's breakdown is a fairly understood event, which happens in 4-5 stages.

1.  Radicalization that seems to result from a single event (In this case, the economic downturn), but is actually caused by the overcomplexity of the republic. (Happening today)

2.  Riots, vigilanteism, and local insurrection. (Within 2 years of last month).

3.  Civil war.  Military units begin to side with factions, rather than the central government. (4-6 years from now.)

4.  Either a despotism/autocracy, or a complete breakdown of society's structure (No later than 2022).

Lastly, if history is any judge, the slide is by this point irreversible.  It may get slowed for a while (or sped up, which is more likely), but the root cause (complexity) will not and cannot be addressed, at least in a manner that will leave the USA as a single political entity (England's in the same boat, but can't really Balkanize, so will probably crash a bit faster and quite a bit harder).

So there you have it.  Official Prophecy™, and unlike loads of other prophets, I'm willing to put dates on the events.  How to PREPARE for the Coming Weird Times is another matter entirely, and one of which I will rant about, but my answers probably won't work in your situation, so you're going to have to, you know, THINK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF.

Or Kill Me.

Prophecy, you fuckers.  Prophecy.

Oh snap!