Sudan to spilt in two?

[Pope Pixie Pickle]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12115013

[AFK]

Goddamn, check out the infant mortality rate on that map. 

[Pope Pixie Pickle]

i did. and various other inequalities. Map wise it makes no sense to have the country split, but it may stop the fighting that has plagued it since independence.

Cain, any insight you could give on the subject would be awesome.

[AFK]

That would be a good thing, but somehow, I suspect that won't be the case.  Especially if the south can't dig itself out of poverty.  I also notice that the oil fields seem to pretty much straddle the potential new border between the two regions.  Seems like that would be a flashpoint in some way too. 

[Cain]

A friend of mine who is a foreign affairs correspondent is stuck in the area that may become South Sudan right now.  He's not very happy about it, I suspect since he probably entered the country illegally in the first place.

Obama and the Chinese government are scrabbling around trying to figure out a response already.  China in particular has invested heavily in Sudanese energy resources, and America doesn't want additional instability in a region which bridges the gap between Central African conflicts and Somalian/Horn of Africa issues.  In fact, Obama offered to strike them off the list of sponsors of state terrorism and lift sanctions in return for the Sudanese government not "interfering" in the referendum.

The oil is going to be the biggest issue though.  Followed by the demobilisation of soldiers.  At the moment, the oil proceeds are split 50-50 between the north and south, as the south has the oil wells but the north has the pipeline to the Red Sea.  The south says it deserves a larger cut of the profits.  The north disagrees.  And thousands of demobilised soldiers in an economically impoverished region, with no plans on what to do with them....well, Africa is the Land Of Many Military Coups.  The fact that the leaders in the south already have their own private military, the South Sudanese rebel group, means another civil war cannot be discounted either.

[Pope Pixie Pickle]

Thanks. I shall be watching this with interest.